Severe Thunderstorm Warning 188, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
110 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storms are possible this afternoon into early evening.

- The potential for heavy rainfall and flooding will continue
  through the weekend, peaking Sunday into Monday.

- We will be monitoring the potential for additional heavy
  rainfall and flash flooding next week.

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 1012 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

The forecast has been updated to include the potential for severe
thunderstorms mainly this afternoon into early evening. Regional
radars were lit up to our southwest already this morning with a
line of severe storms. This activity was associated with an MCV
over southwest Louisiana that is expected to move into our CWA
this afternoon during peak heating. Considering our warm moist
airmass and further destabilization with daytime heating, severe
storms capable of damaging wind gusts will be possible. In
addition, locally heavy rainfall will occur that may lead to
minor runoff issues due to the recent rainfall that has occurred
over the last several days. Also, a brief tornado cannot be ruled
out either with cells ahead of the main line or within the line
itself. /22/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 319 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Today through next Friday...

Current early morning radar scans show a cluster of showers and t-
storms across portions of northeast LA moving into MS from the west.
Heavy rainfall along with flash flood threats will be continue to be
the primary focus across our forecast area today through the weekend
as model guidance continues to highlight a lingering moist
convergence axis across the southeast CONUS. PWAT values up to 2.0
inches in the region are near max values for late May, which will
support high rain rates for the days ahead. SPC Ensemble Viewer
continues to show a strong QPF signal across most of our CWA. No
changes have been made to the flash flood graphic for late Saturday
afternoon/Saturday night timeframe and an "Elevated" risk for flash
flooding will continued to be advertised primarily for areas west of
the MS River. Likewise, the "Limited" flash flooding threat
messaging will continue for areas west of I-55.

The forecast messaging remains on track heading into early next
week. Model guidance continues to show a persistent trough to ridge
longwave pattern that remains anchored over central and eastern
CONUS. This will continue to bring our region a steady stream of
subtropical moisture with seasonably high moisture content, and
multiple upper level perturbations that will provide lift to help
initiate additional rounds of convective rainfall. Sunday into
Monday will have the best potential for a widespread heavy rainfall
threat due to a slow moving upper level low pressure system
interacting with the very moist airmass over the area. An "Elevated"
risk for flooding will continue to be advertised for
western/southern portions of the area for Sunday.

Given the deep moisture and influence from the southeast CONUS
ridge, the overall environment does not appear favorable for severe
storms. With that in mind, a few strong to isolated marginally
severe storms cannot be ruled out. Storm chances will persist across
the area heading into the late week. /CR/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 101 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

A line of TSRA across the southern zones will continue lifting
north through the aftn. Additional TSRA were noted over the nw and
wl affect GLH before the main lines arrives. Away from TSRA VFR
conditions are expected to prevail and continue until after 08Z.
After 08Z MVFR cigs wl develop and lower to IFR by 12Z. Conditions
wl be slow to improve before the end of the TAF period as -RA is
expected to develop over much of the area. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       86  68  81  68 /  50  60  80  90
Meridian      86  67  83  68 /  70  60  80  70
Vicksburg     86  68  79  68 /  50  50  70  70
Hattiesburg   86  69  82  69 /  80  50  90  80
Natchez       86  68  78  68 /  80  70  80  70
Greenville    84  68  80  67 /  60  60  50  80
Greenwood     85  67  81  68 /  50  60  60  70

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

22/CR/22

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1251 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

MSZ066-231830-
Jones MS-
1251 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN JONES COUNTY
THROUGH 130 PM CDT...

At 1251 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Moselle, or 8 miles southwest of Ellisville, moving north at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Laurel, Ellisville, and Moselle.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 600 PM CDT for
southeastern Mississippi.

&&

LAT...LON 3148 8940 3166 8940 3162 8918 3144 8925
TIME...MOT...LOC 1751Z 196DEG 8KT 3154 8934

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

DL

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