Flash Flood Warning 21, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
659 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a Marginal Risk for severe storms in eastern portions
  of the forecast area in the near term.

- The potential for heavy rainfall and flooding will continue
  through the weekend, peaking Sunday into Monday.

- We will be monitoring the potential for additional heavy
  rainfall and flash flooding next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 415 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

In the near term, the morning MCV responsible for a weak brief
tornado in Hinds County and areas of heavy rainfall has moved off
to the east, but a lingering moist convergence axis, located
roughly along the I-59 and Hwy 45 corridors, has been the focus
for renewed convective development during peak heating. Additional
intense rainfall rates and strong updrafts are resulting in a
renewed low-end severe/flash flood threats for the next few hours
in those areas. Later tonight, we could see the nocturnal
enhancement of ~ H850 winds and moisture transport support
additional flash flood concerns. Following days of heavy rainfall,
many locations are becoming more flood prone and sensitive to
additional heavy rainfall, and so have continued the limited flash
flood threat messaging in our HWO graphics through tonight.

Looking ahead, heavy rainfall threats will continue through the
weekend and into next week as a persistent trough to ridge
longwave pattern remains anchored over central and eastern CONUS.
This will continue to bring our region a steady stream of
subtropical moisture with seasonably high moisture content, and
multiple upper level perturbations that will provide lift to help
initiate additional rounds of convective rainfall. Once we get to
about Sunday, a greater threat for flash flooding should evolve
as a more favorable set-up and coupled upper level jet
interaction team up with the very moist air to bring a more
widespread heavy rainfall threat. As of now this appears it will
be over mainly western/southern portions of the area and have
maintained an "elevated" flood threat in this area.

Otherwise, it appears the thermodynamic/shear profiles will not
be particularly favorable for severe weather concerns given the
deep moisture and influence from the southeast CONUS ridge, but as
is the case in the near term, we'll need to monitor for marginal
tornado risks given the potential for enhanced low level shear in
the very moist air. As previously mentioned, it's difficult to
find an end to this wet pattern in the guidance through most of
the remainder of the month. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 654 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

A very humid airmass will maintain threats for MVFR/IFR category
stratus through the weekend with ceilings most hazardous during
the early morning hours. TSRA should be at their greatest threat
during the peak heating hours, but could occur at just about any
time of the day or night. Surface wind will be on the light side.
/EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       67  85  68  81 /  40  70  70 100
Meridian      68  85  67  83 /  40  60  50  90
Vicksburg     67  85  68  80 /  50  60  80  90
Hattiesburg   69  86  69  82 /  50  70  60  90
Natchez       69  85  69  80 /  50  60  90 100
Greenville    66  84  68  80 /  40  60  70  80
Greenwood     66  85  67  82 /  50  60  80  90

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

EC/

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
729 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

LAZ009-015-016-023-MSZ040-047-230115-
Richland LA-Madison LA-East Carroll LA-Franklin LA-Warren MS-
Issaquena MS-
729 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN EAST CARROLL...
MADISON...CENTRAL RICHLAND AND NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN PARISHES...
NORTHWESTERN WARREN AND SOUTHWESTERN ISSAQUENA COUNTIES THROUGH 815
PM CDT...

At 728 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles west of Transylvania to Delhi. Movement
was southeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Waverly, Tendal, Alsatia, and Sondheimer around 735 PM CDT.
  Omega around 740 PM CDT.
  Tallulah and Mansford around 745 PM CDT.
  Eagle Bend around 750 PM CDT.
  Mound around 805 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Richmond.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3254 9189 3252 9184 3254 9184 3255 9150
      3258 9147 3261 9139 3265 9140 3273 9096
      3239 9096 3225 9105 3239 9198
TIME...MOT...LOC 0028Z 304DEG 33KT 3266 9128 3245 9151

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

DC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
752 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

MSZ059-061-230130-
Jefferson MS-Franklin MS-
752 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN FRANKLIN AND
SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES THROUGH 830 PM CDT...

At 752 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Roxie, or 10 miles west of Meadville, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Roxie, Hamburg, and Kirby around 755 PM CDT.
  New Hope around 810 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3147 9116 3150 9115 3176 9094 3158 9071
      3143 9110
TIME...MOT...LOC 0052Z 226DEG 27KT 3150 9107

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

OAJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
808 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

MSZ025-027-035-036-230215-
Carroll MS-Humphreys MS-Leflore MS-Holmes MS-
808 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN HOLMES...WEST
CENTRAL CARROLL...SOUTHERN LEFLORE AND EASTERN HUMPHREYS COUNTIES
THROUGH 915 PM CDT...

At 808 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Quito to near Silver City. Movement was east at
20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Cruger and Silver City around 815 PM CDT.
  Thornton around 830 PM CDT.
  Tchula and Seven Pines around 835 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3341 9005 3300 9029 3301 9034 3302 9034
      3301 9036 3301 9042 3309 9055 3339 9037
TIME...MOT...LOC 0108Z 276DEG 16KT 3342 9031 3311 9053

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

OAJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
857 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

MSZ036-230245-
Holmes MS-
857 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL HOLMES COUNTY THROUGH
945 PM CDT...

At 857 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Howard, or near Lexington, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Lexington and Franklin around 900 PM CDT.
  Durant around 915 PM CDT.
  Goodman around 920 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3312 9022 3318 9018 3315 8981 3296 8990
TIME...MOT...LOC 0157Z 287DEG 24KT 3313 9013

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

OAJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
923 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

LAZ016-230330-
Madison LA-
923 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL MADISON PARISH
THROUGH 1030 PM CDT...

At 923 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Tallulah, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Tallulah around 930 PM CDT.
  Mound around 945 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Richmond.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3246 9122 3246 9110 3245 9107 3243 9104
      3245 9099 3243 9096 3240 9099 3236 9100
      3235 9098 3226 9100 3237 9128
TIME...MOT...LOC 0223Z 278DEG 17KT 3241 9126

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

OAJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
937 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

LAZ016-230315-
Madison LA-
937 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN MADISON PARISH
THROUGH 1015 PM CDT...

At 937 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Waverly, or near Delhi, moving southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Waverly and Tendal around 940 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3243 9147 3245 9148 3248 9146 3247 9122
      3227 9136 3235 9147 3236 9145 3238 9148
      3240 9149 3241 9148 3241 9149 3244 9149
TIME...MOT...LOC 0237Z 292DEG 17KT 3241 9143

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

OAJ