Severe Thunderstorm Warning 137, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1251 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - An active weather pattern will continue through Friday.
    Isolated severe storms and localized flooding will be possible
    again this afternoon into this evening.

  - Heavy rain and localized flooding will be a possibility again
    Friday into Friday evening.

  - Dry and cooler conditions will return this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 101 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Near term: As multiple remnant mesoscale boundaries persist
across Arkansas through North and Northeast MS early this morning,
multiple rounds of convection have persisted into the overnight.
Even in areas where conditions have become more stable near the
surface due to repeated convection, moderate elevated instability
has lingered, resulting in a continued hail threat. Convection may
still be surface or near surface based in northwestern portions
of the areas, where SPC mesoanalysis depicts weak to moderate
mixed layer instability, thus a damaging wind and isolated tornado
threat persists as well early this morning. Tornado Watch 173
remains valid through 9Z for roughly the northern half of the
area. We have also had localized flash flooding from training
convection dating back to last night, particularly in typically
prone urban areas. A general weakening trend with a decrease in
convective coverage is expected through daybreak.

Heading through today, the cold front helping to force this
convection will finally begin to make southward progress into our
area. Ahead of the front, redevelopment/strengthening of
convection is expected later today, mainly into this afternoon and
early evening across northeast LA and central/south MS. Given
sufficient deep shear and somewhat steep mid level lapse rates,
damaging wind gusts and severe criteria hail will be possible.
There may even be sufficient low level shear to not be able to
rule out a tornado. Additionally, with the potential for training
and multiple rounds of storms again, localized flooding will be
possible across this area, and we'll highlight a limited flash
flood threat, where REFS mean QPF shows potential for pockets of
3-5" of rain.

Thursday and Friday: The cold front will shift into south MS and
south LA by early Thursday, stalling near the coast by late
Thursday. Continued upper disturbances during this time will
result in continuing waves of showers with perhaps a few storms,
with higher rain chances over the southern half of our forecast
area closer to the front.

By late Friday, a potent southern stream shortwave will likely
bring our next shot at heavier precip and potential for strong
convection. The major caveat with this activity will be the
stalled surface boundary and how far inland the developing surface
cyclone can force it. With little space between the departing
long wave trough and the incoming shortwave, the warm front will
be facing a tug-of-war scenario as continental dry air and a
surface high attempting to remain entrenched squares off against
the southerly mass recovery attempts of the incoming surface
cyclone/frontal wave. The demarcation between noisy and wet
weather versus strong to severe storms will likely be defined by
this progress an guidance differs greatly on how that may play
out. For now, the most likely scenario would be for some stronger
storm risk across the Hwy 98 corridor, with a heavy rain/localized
flooding threat possible even north of the front for areas south
of I-20 Friday into Friday evening.

Saturday through Tuesday: Surface ridging will build across the
Deep South resulting in dry and cooler conditions this weekend
into early next week. Sunday morning looks to be the coolest point
in this stretch, with temps expected to fall into the 40s
areawide, and lows in the 40s possible three days a row in some of
our cooler spots. Moisture will begin to recover again late
Monday into Tuesday, with potential for showers and thunderstorms
returning by the middle of next week. /DL/EC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

MVFR cigs wl gradually improve across the north but local radars
were lit up with numerous SHRA/TSRA developing across the cntrl
TAF sites. Numerous TSRA are expected this afternoon into this
evening, with +RA resulting in periodic categorical visibility
reductions. Some storms could become severe with 50kt wind gusts,
hail to around 1 inch in diameter, and a tornado cannot be ruled
out. This activity wl spread across the southern TAF sites before
decreasing tonight. MVFR cigs gradually lowering to IFR by 10Z are
expected cntrl and south. Conditions wl gradually improve and VFR
conditions wl prevail areawide by the end of the TAF period.
/22/DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       81  60  72  54 /  70  80  40  60
Meridian      84  58  74  52 /  60  80  40  40
Vicksburg     80  60  72  54 /  80  80  40  60
Hattiesburg   88  64  77  57 /  60  70  50  40
Natchez       84  62  74  56 /  80  80  60  60
Greenville    77  58  71  55 /  50  60  20  50
Greenwood     79  57  72  53 /  40  60  20  50

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

EC/DL/22

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
232 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0132 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     7 NNE Reganton          32.24N 90.70W
04/29/2026                   Hinds              MS   Emergency Mngr

            Tree Down Blocking Roadway on Newman Rd near
            Hwy 27.

&&

CE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
232 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

LAZ025-MSZ053-292000-
Tensas LA-Claiborne MS-
232 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN TENSAS PARISH IN
NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND WEST CENTRAL CLAIBORNE COUNTIES THROUGH
300 PM CDT...

At 232 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Newellton, or 13 miles north of St. Joseph, moving southeast at 25
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Newellton, Lake Bruin, and Somerset around 235 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
northeastern Louisiana...and southwestern and west central
Mississippi.

&&

LAT...LON 3220 9133 3222 9130 3218 9117 3215 9117
      3213 9116 3212 9111 3213 9110 3213 9107
      3212 9103 3211 9103 3192 9117 3204 9141
TIME...MOT...LOC 1932Z 295DEG 22KT 3211 9129

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

19

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
233 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

MSZ054>056-292000-
Smith MS-Copiah MS-Simpson MS-
233 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SIMPSON...SOUTHWESTERN SMITH AND
COPIAH COUNTIES THROUGH 300 PM CDT...

At 233 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Pinola, or near Mendenhall, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Magee and Sanatorium around 240 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
central, south central and southeastern Mississippi.

&&

LAT...LON 3180 9066 3202 9066 3202 9024 3190 8963
      3180 8948 3178 8961 3176 9013 3172 9024
TIME...MOT...LOC 1933Z 288DEG 38KT 3189 8993

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

DC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
257 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0129 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     5 S Cross Roads         32.18N 89.78W
04/29/2026                   Rankin             MS   Emergency Mngr

            Tree across the road.

&&

CE

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