Flash Flood Warning 11, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
641 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - Significant severe weather threat including the risk for
    tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds continues into
    tonight.

  - Additional rounds of storms could impact the area later in the
    week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 358 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

In the near term: The convective scenario for today and tonight's
severe weather event has become rather complex. Capping is noted
~H800 in this afternoon's special JAN raob as an initial round of
deep convection crosses the I-55 corridor and moves toward east
MS, and there is also negative theta-e advection in the lower
levels south of the I-20 corridor. The current convection had
reached severe intensities previously, but is now feeling the
effects of the more stable air as it moves east. Meanwhile,
additional storms well upstream over the Southern Plains are
forecast to quickly organize as they approach the ArkLaMiss
region, and the big question is how will threats evolve as these
storms develop. The steep lapse rates and strong deep layer shear
upstream continue to support organized severe weather assuming
the ascent is favorable, but in light of recent observations, we
may need to consider backing down a bit in the severe weather
messaging and will continue to monitor. /EC/

Flash Flood Threat: With precipitable water values (PWATs) above
1.8", storm motions not particularly fast for our area this time
of year (generally less than 40 kt forward motion), and the
tendency for storms to move over the same areas, localized flash
flooding appears increasingly possible. A "Limited" threat for
heavy rainfall continues to be advertised for portions of
Southeast Arkansas and North Mississippi through tonight. Most
areas along and north of the I-20 corridor will see rainfall
totals of 1 to 2 inches with amounts tapering off dramatically
with southern extent. Localized areas of 3 to 6 inches where
thunderstorms train could lead to some localized flash flooding,
particularly in low lying and urban areas.

Wednesday Through Early Next Week: Following storms Tuesday, the
boundary will likely sink toward the Gulf Coast during the day
Wednesday. This could allow for an additional round of scattered
storms during the peak heating Wednesday afternoon of which a few
could be marginally severe with attendant hail/wind risks. By
Thursday, lowered humidity and an at least temporary end to the
near daily strong/severe storm risk is likely.

By late Friday or early Saturday, a potent southern stream shortwave
will likely bring our next shot at strong to potentially severe
storms. The major caveat with this activity will be the surface
boundary and how far inland the developing surface cyclone can force
it. With little space between the departing long wave trough and the
incoming shortwave, the warm front will be facing a tug-of-war
scenario as continental dry air and a surface high not far away,
perhaps as near as northern Georgia, attempting to remain entrenched
squares off against the southerly mass recovery attempts of the
incoming surface cyclone/frontal wave. The demarcation between noisy
and wet weather versus strong to severe storms will likely be
defined by this progress an guidance differs greatly on how that may
play out. For now, the most likely scenario would be for some
stronger storm risk across our southernmost areas. This situation
should be monitored carefully particularly for folks along or south
of the I-20 corridor.

Looking ahead into early next week, guidance is starting to show a
1020mb sfc high over the Southern Plains shifting towards our
forecast area. This will allow for quiet weather conditions to
persist over the region with daytime highs peaking in the upper 70s.

Taking a perhaps daring glance into the forecast beyond day 7
suggests more active weather is likely with attendant risks for
thunderstorms, perhaps severe. Attempting to declare any specificity
would be foolhardy, but it does seem like we will be making some
dent in the local drought conditions over the next couple of
weeks. /86/CR/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

MVFR flight conditions near eastern/northern sites as showers/
storms move over the area and VFR flight conditions elsewhere.
Showers and storms are expected to become widespread into the
evening with some storms becoming severe with gusts to 50-60 kt,
hail up to golf ball size, and tornadoes possible. Reduction in
flight conditions are expected as storms moves through the region.
Flight conditions will linger at MVFR/IFR post storms as low stratus
moves into the area. /SW/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       67  84  61  76 /  70  60  80  30
Meridian      65  85  59  76 /  80  60  80  30
Vicksburg     68  83  60  75 /  70  70  80  30
Hattiesburg   67  89  64  79 /  30  50  80  40
Natchez       69  87  63  76 /  30  70  80  40
Greenville    67  77  58  71 /  90  50  50  10
Greenwood     66  79  57  73 / 100  40  60  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

EC/SW/86

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
845 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0810 PM     Hail             4 N Vernon              33.04N 88.94W
04/28/2026  E1.00 Inch       Winston            MS   Emergency Mngr

&&

CE

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
848 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     Flash Flood      2 NNE Meridian          32.39N 88.69W
04/28/2026                   Lauderdale         MS   Emergency Mngr

            Bridge washed out at 34th and 11th.

&&

CE

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
858 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 N Fountain Hill       33.38N 91.85W
04/28/2026                   Ashley             AR   Emergency Mngr

            Tree down across Hwy 425.

&&

CE

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
907 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     Hail             1 ESE Starkville        33.44N 88.80W
04/28/2026  M0.88 Inch       Oktibbeha          MS   Public

            Report of nickel sized hail.

&&

KP

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