Severe Thunderstorm Warning 116, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
427 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - Significant severe weather threat including the risk for
    tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds continues into
    tonight.

  - Additional rounds of storms could impact the area later in the
    week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 358 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

In the near term: The convective scenario for today and tonight's
severe weather event has become rather complex. Capping is noted
~H800 in this afternoon's special JAN raob as an initial round of
deep convection crosses the I-55 corridor and moves toward east
MS, and there is also negative theta-e advection in the lower
levels south of the I-20 corridor. The current convection had
reached severe intensities previously, but is now feeling the
effects of the more stable air as it moves east. Meanhwile,
additional storms well upstream over the Southern Plains are
forecast to quickly organize as they approach the ArkLaMiss
region, and the big question is how will threats evolve as these
storms develop. The steep lapse rates and strong deep layer shear
upstream continue to support organized severe weather assuming
the ascent is favorable, but in light of recent observations, we
may need to consider backing down a bit in the severe weather
messaging and will continue to monitor. /EC/

Flash Flood Threat: With precipitable water values (PWATs) above
1.8", storm motions not particularly fast for our area this time
of year (generally less than 40 kt forward motion), and the
tendency for storms to move over the same areas, localized flash
flooding appears increasingly possible. A "Limited" threat for
heavy rainfall continues to be advertised for portions of
Southeast Arkansas and North Mississippi through tonight. Most
areas along and north of the I-20 corridor will see rainfall
totals of 1 to 2 inches with amounts tapering off dramatically
with southern extent. Localized areas of 3 to 6 inches where
thunderstorms train could lead to some localized flash flooding,
particularly in low lying and urban areas.

Wednesday Through Early Next Week: Following storms Tuesday, the
boundary will likely sink toward the Gulf Coast during the day
Wednesday. This could allow for an additional round of scattered
storms during the peak heating Wednesday afternoon of which a few
could be marginally severe with attendant hail/wind risks. By
Thursday, lowered humidity and an at least temporary end to the
near daily strong/severe storm risk is likely.

By late Friday or early Saturday, a potent southern stream shortwave
will likely bring our next shot at strong to potentially severe
storms. The major caveat with this activity will be the surface
boundary and how far inland the developing surface cyclone can force
it. With little space between the departing long wave trough and the
incoming shortwave, the warm front will be facing a tug-of-war
scenario as continental dry air and a surface high not far away,
perhaps as near as northern Georgia, attempting to remain entrenched
squares off against the southerly mass recovery attempts of the
incoming surface cyclone/frontal wave. The demarcation between noisy
and wet weather versus strong to severe storms will likely be
defined by this progress an guidance differs greatly on how that may
play out. For now, the most likely scenario would be for some
stronger storm risk across our southernmost areas. This situation
should be monitored carefully particularly for folks along or south
of the I-20 corridor.

Looking ahead into early next week, guidance is starting to show a
1020mb sfc high over the Southern Plains shifting towards our
forecast area. This will allow for quiet weather conditions to
persist over the region with daytime highs peaking in the upper 70s.

Taking a perhaps daring glance into the forecast beyond day 7
suggests more active weather is likely with attendant risks for
thunderstorms, perhaps severe. Attempting to declare any specificity
would be foolhardy, but it does seem like we will be making some
dent in the local drought conditions over the next couple of
weeks. /86/CR/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

VFR/MVFR flight conditions with southerly winds of 10-15 kts and
gusts near 20 kts across most sites with the exception of GTR as -
TSRA is ongoing. Gradual clearing of low stratus along with -TSRA
moving away from GTR will lead to VFR conditions across the area.
Widespread rain/storms are expected late afternoon into the evening
with some storms likely reaching severe limits with gusts to 50-60
kt, hail up to golf ball size, and tornadoes possible. MVFR/IFR
flight conditions are expected to accompany the storms. Low stratus
will return once storms move out, causing flight conditions to
remain at MVFR. /SW/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       67  84  61  76 /  70  60  80  30
Meridian      65  85  59  76 /  80  60  80  30
Vicksburg     68  83  60  75 /  70  70  80  30
Hattiesburg   67  89  64  79 /  30  50  80  40
Natchez       69  87  63  76 /  30  70  80  40
Greenville    67  77  58  71 /  90  50  50  10
Greenwood     66  79  57  73 / 100  40  60  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

EC/86/CR/SW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
534 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

MSZ036-282330-
Holmes MS-
534 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT HOLMES COUNTY THROUGH 630 PM
CDT...

At 534 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Brozville, or near Lexington, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Lexington and Franklin around 540 PM CDT.
  Durant and Goodman around 545 PM CDT.
  Bowling Green around 555 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for central
Mississippi.

&&

LAT...LON 3320 8975 3319 8978 3313 8980 3311 8982
      3306 8983 3306 8984 3304 8984 3300 8988
      3288 8996 3300 9030 3321 9031 3321 8975
TIME...MOT...LOC 2234Z 271DEG 22KT 3305 9009

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CR

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
609 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0220 PM     Hail             2 W Vaughan             32.81N 90.07W
04/28/2026  E3.00 Inch       Yazoo              MS   Storm Chaser

            Very large hail around Vaughn, pics of
            multiple large stone between 2 and 3 inches
            in diameter.

&&

CE

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
613 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     Hail             3 ESE Linwood           32.78N 90.10W
04/28/2026  E1.50 Inch       Yazoo              MS   Emergency Mngr

&&

CE