Severe Thunderstorm Warning 111, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
427 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - Significant severe weather threat including the risk for
    tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds continues into
    tonight.

  - Additional rounds of storms could impact the area later in the
    week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 358 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

In the near term: The convective scenario for today and tonight's
severe weather event has become rather complex. Capping is noted
~H800 in this afternoon's special JAN raob as an initial round of
deep convection crosses the I-55 corridor and moves toward east
MS, and there is also negative theta-e advection in the lower
levels south of the I-20 corridor. The current convection had
reached severe intensities previously, but is now feeling the
effects of the more stable air as it moves east. Meanhwile,
additional storms well upstream over the Southern Plains are
forecast to quickly organize as they approach the ArkLaMiss
region, and the big question is how will threats evolve as these
storms develop. The steep lapse rates and strong deep layer shear
upstream continue to support organized severe weather assuming
the ascent is favorable, but in light of recent observations, we
may need to consider backing down a bit in the severe weather
messaging and will continue to monitor. /EC/

Flash Flood Threat: With precipitable water values (PWATs) above
1.8", storm motions not particularly fast for our area this time
of year (generally less than 40 kt forward motion), and the
tendency for storms to move over the same areas, localized flash
flooding appears increasingly possible. A "Limited" threat for
heavy rainfall continues to be advertised for portions of
Southeast Arkansas and North Mississippi through tonight. Most
areas along and north of the I-20 corridor will see rainfall
totals of 1 to 2 inches with amounts tapering off dramatically
with southern extent. Localized areas of 3 to 6 inches where
thunderstorms train could lead to some localized flash flooding,
particularly in low lying and urban areas.

Wednesday Through Early Next Week: Following storms Tuesday, the
boundary will likely sink toward the Gulf Coast during the day
Wednesday. This could allow for an additional round of scattered
storms during the peak heating Wednesday afternoon of which a few
could be marginally severe with attendant hail/wind risks. By
Thursday, lowered humidity and an at least temporary end to the
near daily strong/severe storm risk is likely.

By late Friday or early Saturday, a potent southern stream shortwave
will likely bring our next shot at strong to potentially severe
storms. The major caveat with this activity will be the surface
boundary and how far inland the developing surface cyclone can force
it. With little space between the departing long wave trough and the
incoming shortwave, the warm front will be facing a tug-of-war
scenario as continental dry air and a surface high not far away,
perhaps as near as northern Georgia, attempting to remain entrenched
squares off against the southerly mass recovery attempts of the
incoming surface cyclone/frontal wave. The demarcation between noisy
and wet weather versus strong to severe storms will likely be
defined by this progress an guidance differs greatly on how that may
play out. For now, the most likely scenario would be for some
stronger storm risk across our southernmost areas. This situation
should be monitored carefully particularly for folks along or south
of the I-20 corridor.

Looking ahead into early next week, guidance is starting to show a
1020mb sfc high over the Southern Plains shifting towards our
forecast area. This will allow for quiet weather conditions to
persist over the region with daytime highs peaking in the upper 70s.

Taking a perhaps daring glance into the forecast beyond day 7
suggests more active weather is likely with attendant risks for
thunderstorms, perhaps severe. Attempting to declare any specificity
would be foolhardy, but it does seem like we will be making some
dent in the local drought conditions over the next couple of
weeks. /86/CR/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

VFR/MVFR flight conditions with southerly winds of 10-15 kts and
gusts near 20 kts across most sites with the exception of GTR as -
TSRA is ongoing. Gradual clearing of low stratus along with -TSRA
moving away from GTR will lead to VFR conditions across the area.
Widespread rain/storms are expected late afternoon into the evening
with some storms likely reaching severe limits with gusts to 50-60
kt, hail up to golf ball size, and tornadoes possible. MVFR/IFR
flight conditions are expected to accompany the storms. Low stratus
will return once storms move out, causing flight conditions to
remain at MVFR. /SW/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       67  84  61  76 /  70  60  80  30
Meridian      65  85  59  76 /  80  60  80  30
Vicksburg     68  83  60  75 /  70  70  80  30
Hattiesburg   67  89  64  79 /  30  50  80  40
Natchez       69  87  63  76 /  30  70  80  40
Greenville    67  77  58  71 /  90  50  50  10
Greenwood     66  79  57  73 / 100  40  60  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

EC/86/CR/SW

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
359 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

MSZ043-044-049-050-282145-
Scott MS-Leake MS-Rankin MS-Madison MS-
359 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN LEAKE...NORTHEASTERN
RANKIN...NORTHWESTERN SCOTT AND SOUTHEASTERN MADISON COUNTIES THROUGH
445 PM CDT...

At 359 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Way to near Gluckstadt. Movement was east
at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Canton and Sharon around 405 PM CDT.
  Goshen Springs and Pisgah around 410 PM CDT.
  Farmhaven around 415 PM CDT.
  Ludlow around 425 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for central
Mississippi.

&&

LAT...LON 3244 9004 3246 9011 3270 9012 3270 9010
      3273 9008 3274 9005 3275 9004 3275 8957
      3245 8956
TIME...MOT...LOC 2059Z 270DEG 31KT 3269 9004 3254 9004

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
407 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

MSZ035-040>042-282130-
Sharkey MS-Humphreys MS-Yazoo MS-Issaquena MS-
407 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN YAZOO...NORTH
CENTRAL ISSAQUENA...SOUTH CENTRAL HUMPHREYS AND CENTRAL SHARKEY
COUNTIES THROUGH 430 PM CDT...

At 407 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Rolling Fork, moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Anguilla and Holly Bluff around 410 PM CDT.
  Louise around 420 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for central and
west central Mississippi.

&&

LAT...LON 3278 9097 3296 9097 3300 9047 3275 9047
TIME...MOT...LOC 2107Z 269DEG 43KT 3287 9086

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

19

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
431 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

MSZ042-282200-
Yazoo MS-
431 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL YAZOO COUNTY THROUGH 500
PM CDT...

At 431 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles east of Holly Bluff, or 9 miles west of Yazoo City, moving east
at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Yazoo City around 435 PM CDT.
  Benton around 445 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for central and
west central Mississippi.

&&

LAT...LON 3272 9025 3277 9069 3278 9071 3281 9070
      3281 9069 3282 9070 3289 9069 3292 9066
      3292 9045 3294 9045 3295 9025
TIME...MOT...LOC 2131Z 271DEG 36KT 3286 9058

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

19

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
505 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0306 PM     Hail             11 WNW Kings            32.48N 91.01W
04/28/2026  E1.00 Inch       Warren             MS   Emergency Mngr

&&

CE

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
520 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0504 PM     Hail             1 SSE Benton            32.82N 90.25W
04/28/2026  E1.00 Inch       Yazoo              MS   Public

&&

CE