River Flood Warning 1, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
652 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - Flash flooding and severe weather potential continues through
    early this morning.

  - Much cooler temperatures are expected following the cold
    front this weekend.

  - Colder weather may be in store in the longer range.

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 650 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

The cold front has just about cleared the southeastern corner of
our CWA this morning, with a short remaining period of severe
weather and flooding risk associated with storms along this front.
Short-term weather elements were updated with latest guidance.
/NF/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

Through today: Convective coverage has begun to increase early
this morning ahead of an approaching cold front. Severe weather
has been somewhat limited thus far overnight, but with increasing
low level shear in a strengthening low level jet and modest
instability, there will be increasing potential for instances of
severe weather over the next several hours with damaging wind or a
tornado or two being the most likely threats. The lack of more
coherent forcing, which has resulted in much messier/less
organized convection, is one of the biggest detractors from severe
weather development in spite of the available ingredients.

There also remains potential for flash flooding, and the Flood
Watch was extended through the overnight given the continued
pockets of heavy rain. So far the most impressive rainfall totals
have been across southeast and east MS, where rainfall estimates
from the past 24 hours are approaching 7-9" in a few areas. Given
the lack of flooding so far in those areas, this may be a hopeful
sign that impacts will be more limited to urban and low lying
areas typically prone to run off problems.

Rain will end from west to east early today as the front pushes
through, and convection may linger along the I-59 corridor as
late as mid-morning. Low clouds will linger through much of the
day with increasing cold advection by the afternoon. High temps
for today will occur in the morning at most locations with temps
dropping through the remainder of the day. We may see clouds
begin to clear out by the late afternoon up in the Delta, but
clearing may not occur until after sunset elsewhere.

Sunday through Friday: Cooler but seasonable conditions will
prevail in the wake of the front. A reinforcing front during the
day Sunday will help sustain that airmass into the beginning of
the new work week, and freezes will be possible both Monday and
Tuesday mornings. Temperatures will moderate somewhat into midweek
as low level flow shifts back around to southerly.

Another cold front is expected around Wednesday, but limited
moisture return ahead of it should limit rain potential. The
airmass change behind this front is expected to be more
substantial, with additional freezes increasingly likely over the
latter half of next week. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 650 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

A mix of IFR to MVFR ceilings expected at the start of the period,
with gradual clearing at all sites to prevailing VFR generally by
00Z Sunday. /NF/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       67  37  52  30 /  80   0   0   0
Meridian      71  38  53  28 / 100   0   0   0
Vicksburg     66  37  53  30 /  60   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   74  42  60  31 /  90   0   0   0
Natchez       66  38  55  31 /  70   0   0   0
Greenville    62  37  48  29 /  40   0   0   0
Greenwood     64  35  50  28 /  70   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Flood Watch until 9 AM CST this morning for MSZ038-039-043>046-
     048>066-072>074.

LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

DL/NF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
449 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

MSZ050>052-055>057-101145-
Scott MS-Smith MS-Lauderdale MS-Newton MS-Simpson MS-Jasper MS-
449 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN JASPER...NEWTON...
NORTHEASTERN SIMPSON...SMITH...SOUTHEASTERN SCOTT AND NORTHWESTERN
LAUDERDALE COUNTIES THROUGH 545 AM CST...

At 448 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Forest to Rockport. Movement was east at
50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Forest, Mendenhall, Conehatta, Lake, Homewood, Pulaski, Pinola,
  and White Oak around 455 AM CST.
  Burns and Martinville around 500 AM CST.
  Stratton and Sanatorium around 505 AM CST.
  Decatur and Lawrence around 510 AM CST.
  Newton, Union, Raleigh, Little Rock, and Pineville around 515 AM
  CST.
  Duffee around 520 AM CST.
  Collinsville and Roberts around 525 AM CST.
  Martin around 530 AM CST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 AM CST for central
Mississippi. A Tornado Watch also remains in effect until 1000 AM CST
for central and east central Mississippi.

&&

LAT...LON 3196 8923 3185 9002 3205 8983 3205 8973
      3215 8973 3258 8932 3258 8871
TIME...MOT...LOC 1048Z 252DEG 42KT 3239 8945 3180 9018

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

86

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
513 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0421 AM     Tornado          Carson                  31.54N 89.79W
01/10/2026                   Jefferson Davis    MS   Emergency Mngr

            Trees and powerlines downed on Alex Daley
            Rd. Roof damage to a home.

&&

DL

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
515 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0338 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Mount Olive             31.76N 89.65W
01/10/2026                   Covington          MS   Emergency Mngr

            A tree was downed onto a camper.

&&

DL

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