Flash Flood Warning 6, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
226 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - Flash flooding and severe weather potential continues through
    early this morning.

  - Much cooler temperatures are expected following the cold
    front this weekend.

  - Colder weather may be in store in the longer range.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

Through today: Convective coverage has begun to increase early
this morning ahead of an approaching cold front. Severe weather
has been somewhat limited thus far overnight, but with increasing
low level shear in a strengthening low level jet and modest
instability, there will be increasing potential for instances of
severe weather over the next several hours with damaging wind or a
tornado or two being the most likely threats. The lack of more
coherent forcing, which has resulted in much messier/less
organized convection, is one of the biggest detractors from severe
weather development in spite of the available ingredients.

There also remains potential for flash flooding, and the Flood
Watch was extended through the overnight given the continued
pockets of heavy rain. So far the most impressive rainfall totals
have been across southeast and east MS, where rainfall estimates
from the past 24 hours are approaching 7-9" in a few areas. Given
the lack of flooding so far in those areas, this may be a hopeful
sign that impacts will be more limited to urban and low lying
areas typically prone to run off problems.

Rain will end from west to east early today as the front pushes
through, and convection may linger along the I-59 corridor as
late as mid-morning. Low clouds will linger through much of the
day with increasing cold advection by the afternoon. High temps
for today will occur in the morning at most locations with temps
dropping through the remainder of the day. We may see clouds
begin to clear out by the late afternoon up in the Delta, but
clearing may not occur until after sunset elsewhere.

Sunday through Friday: Cooler but seasonable conditions will
prevail in the wake of the front. A reinforcing front during the
day Sunday will help sustain that airmass into the beginning of
the new work week, and freezes will be possible both Monday and
Tuesday mornings. Temperatures will moderate somewhat into midweek
as low level flow shifts back around to southerly.

Another cold front is expected around Wednesday, but limited
moisture return ahead of it should limit rain potential. The
airmass change behind this front is expected to be more
substantial, with additional freezes increasingly likely over the
latter half of next week. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1134 PM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

Ceilings continue to fall across the region and will reach IFR
category at most if not all sites with visibility frequently
falling to MVFR/IFR, especially in areas of heavier rain.
Scattered SHRA and TS are currently ongoing, and coverage is
expected to increase overnight ahead of a cold front. Some
storms, mainly in south MS and central LA could be severe with 50
kt wind gusts and a tornado possible. Rain will decrease from west
to east on Saturday morning with wind shifting to northwest and
becoming gusty at times during the day. Visibility restrictions
are expected to go away with the departure of the rain, but
ceilings will be slow to recover and MVFR conditions may continue
late into the afternoon hours across most of the area and perhaps
even into the evening at some terminals. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       69  37  52  30 /  80   0   0   0
Meridian      71  37  53  28 /  90   0   0   0
Vicksburg     65  36  53  30 /  60   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   76  42  60  31 /  90  10   0   0
Natchez       68  39  55  31 /  70   0   0   0
Greenville    60  37  48  29 /  30   0   0   0
Greenwood     64  35  50  28 /  60   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Flood Watch until 9 AM CST this morning for MSZ038-039-043>046-
     048>066-072>074.

LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

DL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1142 PM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

ARZ075-MSZ018-019-034-035-100645-
Chicot AR-Washington MS-Humphreys MS-Sunflower MS-Bolivar MS-
1142 PM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CHICOT...SOUTHWESTERN
SUNFLOWER...WASHINGTON...NORTHWESTERN HUMPHREYS AND SOUTHEASTERN
BOLIVAR COUNTIES THROUGH 1245 AM CST...

At 1142 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Chicot Junction, or 10 miles south of Lake Village, moving northeast
at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Lake Village around 1150 PM CST.
  Greenville, Wayside, and Avon around 1155 PM CST.
  Leland and Metcalfe around 1205 AM CST.
  Arcola and Tribbett around 1210 AM CST.
  Holly Ridge around 1215 AM CST.
  Indianola around 1220 AM CST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3330 9048 3301 9117 3300 9133 3301 9141
      3318 9146 3338 9146 3371 9077
TIME...MOT...LOC 0542Z 240DEG 46KT 3319 9133

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

86

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
323 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

MSZ055-056-062>065-072-101030-
Smith MS-Lawrence MS-Jefferson Davis MS-Covington MS-Lincoln MS-
Simpson MS-Marion MS-
323 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN SIMPSON...
NORTHWESTERN MARION...SOUTHEASTERN SMITH...SOUTHEASTERN LINCOLN...
LAWRENCE...NORTHERN COVINGTON AND JEFFERSON DAVIS COUNTIES THROUGH
430 AM CST...

At 323 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles north of Clem to near Magnolia.
Movement was east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Magee, Prentiss, Mount Olive, Silver Creek, Clem, Jayess, Topeka,
  Tilton, Robinwood, and Progress around 330 AM CST.
  Lone Star and Oak Vale around 335 AM CST.
  Carson around 340 AM CST.
  Taylorsville, Holly Springs, and Society Hill around 345 AM CST.
  Collins, Bassfield, Goss, and Morgantown around 350 AM CST.
  Bunker Hill around 355 AM CST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 400 AM CST for south central,
central and southeastern Mississippi.

&&

LAT...LON 3134 9004 3133 9008 3135 9011 3135 9047
      3185 8996 3187 8932 3180 8938 3180 8940
      3178 8940 3120 8996 3119 9003
TIME...MOT...LOC 0923Z 256DEG 39KT 3180 8979 3119 9044

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

86

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
449 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

MSZ050>052-055>057-101145-
Scott MS-Smith MS-Lauderdale MS-Newton MS-Simpson MS-Jasper MS-
449 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN JASPER...NEWTON...
NORTHEASTERN SIMPSON...SMITH...SOUTHEASTERN SCOTT AND NORTHWESTERN
LAUDERDALE COUNTIES THROUGH 545 AM CST...

At 448 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Forest to Rockport. Movement was east at
50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Forest, Mendenhall, Conehatta, Lake, Homewood, Pulaski, Pinola,
  and White Oak around 455 AM CST.
  Burns and Martinville around 500 AM CST.
  Stratton and Sanatorium around 505 AM CST.
  Decatur and Lawrence around 510 AM CST.
  Newton, Union, Raleigh, Little Rock, and Pineville around 515 AM
  CST.
  Duffee around 520 AM CST.
  Collinsville and Roberts around 525 AM CST.
  Martin around 530 AM CST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 AM CST for central
Mississippi. A Tornado Watch also remains in effect until 1000 AM CST
for central and east central Mississippi.

&&

LAT...LON 3196 8923 3185 9002 3205 8983 3205 8973
      3215 8973 3258 8932 3258 8871
TIME...MOT...LOC 1048Z 252DEG 42KT 3239 8945 3180 9018

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

86

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
513 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0421 AM     Tornado          Carson                  31.54N 89.79W
01/10/2026                   Jefferson Davis    MS   Emergency Mngr

            Trees and powerlines downed on Alex Daley
            Rd. Roof damage to a home.

&&

DL

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
515 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0338 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Mount Olive             31.76N 89.65W
01/10/2026                   Covington          MS   Emergency Mngr

            A tree was downed onto a camper.

&&

DL