Severe Thunderstorm Warning 76, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
702 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Wind Advisory is in effect through 8 PM EDT for northern
  Indiana and Lower Michigan. Southerly wind gusts to 45 mph
  expected.

- Severe weather is possible between 5-11 PM EDT. There is a
  Slight Risk for severe weather with damaging winds as the main
  threat. An isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

- Flooding concerns persist through the weekend with additional
 rounds of rain and storms Friday into Saturday.

- Mild with highs in the 70s through Saturday. Cooler, in the
  40s, to begin the new week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1253 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

A surface low over eastern Kansas continues to be our focus for a
Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms late this afternoon. Critically,
a warm front is gradually lifting into the southern portions of our
forecast area as dew points rise into the mid-50s. South of this
warm front, stratus is clearing as well. Guidance is generally
handling this moisture advection well, which bolsters confidence in
the guidance. The source region for storms later today, west-central
Illinois, remains socked in beneath clouds for the time being. Yet,
HREF members and hourly CAMs remain in fair agreement that
conditions will improve, the stratus and CAP will break, resulting
in a broken line of thunderstorms over northwest IN near 5pm EDT.

In general, ingredients remain disjointed with departing 500mb and
850 mb jets placing our area in the right entrance region briefly,
along with waning MUCAPE below 1,000 j/kg which can be enough when
paired with 45-50 knots of bulk shear (seen here). 0-1 km helicity
is supportive for tornadoes, but again, the holistic environment is
disjointed/marginal. Damaging wind gusts, tornadoes, and heavy
rainfall remain the primary concerns from 5pm and 11pm EDT. High
confidence in a weakening trend as any storms near the I-69 corridor
due to departing upper-level support and waning instability.
Precipitable water values remain high, conducive for downpours, but
area-wide rainfall amounts are forecast to be 0.25-0.50". Lastly,
the inherited wind advisory remains on track but limited by existing
cloudiness. Upstream, wind gusts are increasing (about 40-42mph in
central IL).

Active weather persists both Friday and Saturday. Tonight's cold
front has minimal effect as strong ridging off the Outer Banks
encourages warm, southerly flow. Meanwhile, over the Central US,
cyclogenesis is underway bringing another warm front through our
area Friday. This favors rain primarily south of US-24 that
gradually lifts north Friday. The cold front then sweeps through
Saturday. Preceding rain in the warm sector and lagging jet dynamics
look to limit any severe weather risk on Saturday. However, an
unseasonably moist air mass continues to threaten locally heavy
rainfall resulting in 0.5 to 1" of rain Friday night through
Saturday.

Sharply colder Sunday and Monday with highs in the 40s to near 50.
This remains the case on Tuesday as a secondary surge of cold,
Canadian air becomes established via expansive high pressure. A
clipper system precedes this, brining a 20%-30% chance of rain or
snow showers Monday night across Michigan. Look for warmer
conditions Wednesday and beyond.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 645 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

The warm front has moved north into Lower Michigan, with all of
northern Indiana in the mild (warm) sector. A pre-frontal squall
line was developing over northwest Indiana, well ahead of the
strong cold front further west over northeast IA. Storms were
going upscale in this line. The HRRR appears to have a
reasonable handle on this these storms. Have updated the SBN TAF
for briefly much lower visibilities which have been observed in
this line. Otherwise, winds will eventually become west with
MVFR returning overnight.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
     INZ005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-
     116-203-204-216.
OH...None.
MI...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ078>080-177-
     277.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 10 PM EDT this evening for LMZ043-046.

&&

DISCUSSION...Brown
AVIATION...Marsili/Skipper

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
629 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

INZ005-103-104-203-204-MIZ078-079-177-277-032230-
Elkhart-Northern La Porte-Eastern St. Joseph IN-Southern La Porte-
Western St. Joseph IN-Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-Northern Berrien-
Southern Berrien-
629 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026 /529 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026/

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS
EVENING...
...TORNADO WATCH 90 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana and
southwest Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.
   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Additional rain and storms are possible Friday night into Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

INZ006>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-116-216-MIZ080-032230-
Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-Pulaski-Marshall-Fulton IN-
Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-Miami-Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Adams-
Grant-Blackford-Jay-Northern Kosciusko-Southern Kosciusko-Branch-
629 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026 /529 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026/

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana and
southwest Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

Additional rain and storms today will worsen any ongoing flooding.
Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible tonight between
5-11 PM EDT mainly along and north of US 24. Damaging winds are the
main threat but isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Additional rain and storms are possible Friday night into Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

MIZ081-OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025-032230-
Hillsdale-Williams-Fulton OH-Defiance-Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-
Allen OH-
629 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Michigan and
northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Additional rain and storms today will worsen any ongoing flooding.
Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible tonight between
5-11 PM EDT mainly along and north of US 24. Damaging winds are the
main threat but isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Additional rain and storms are possible Friday night into Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LMZ043-046-032230-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
629 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters of
southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.