Gale Warning 10, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
142 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Additional rain and isolated thunderstorms tonight will
  worsen any ongoing flooding. However, the heaviest rain is
  forecast to be west of Indiana State Route 15.

- Breezy on Thursday with a 60% to 80% chance of showers and
  thunderstorms in the late afternoon. Confidence is low in
  severe weather occuring, but heavy rain, damaging wind gusts
  and a tornado are the primary hazards.

- Additional showers and thunderstorms Friday and Saturday;
  remaining warm.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 738 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Steady rainfall has shifted east of the area, with a blossoming
area of light rain/drizzle oriented west to east from Knox to
our office and towards Defiance. This appears to be associated
with lingering low level moisture and some decent low level
isentropic lift well ahead of the warm front. Added some drizzle
earlier to the forecast and will watch trends to see if this
needs to be expanded. Otherwise, we await the northward push of
the warm front and eventual expansion of showers and some
thunderstorms from the SW. CAMs seem to suggest that much of the
activity into the overnight may end up more widely scattered
with maybe far NW areas being clipped as the main axis orients
from SE Wisconsin into IL. Have not made any changes yet to the
forecast since isentropic lift does further increase through the
night, but something to keep an eye on.

Otherwise no other changes needed.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

A break in the moderate rain along a slow-moving warm front for the
late afternoon and early evening. Rainfall amounts of 2-4" from
about Knox, IN through Napoleon and Continental Ohio has resulted
in widespread field flooding and rising water (or overflowing of) on
area waterways. There is some concern for flooding rain tonight
through mid-morning Thursday as the warm front lifts north, but
not quite a slam dunk scenario. Thankfully, the greatest rain
totals tonight (about 0.50-1") look to be mainly west of SR 15
in Indiana, which is dislocated from worst of the flooding
reports we've received so far. Rain tonight will also be
progressive, resulting in a shorter residence time. Area- wide,
tonight's rain will total about +/-0.25" to 0.50", with higher
amounts in thunderstorms.

Very warm and breezy on Thursday with the warm front now to our
north. A wind advisory was considered for western counties, yet the
duration appears brief (6 hours or less) and guidance appears most
aligned with wind gusts near 40 mph rather than 45 mph. The extent
of afternoon mixing is uncertain given abundant clouds to begin the
day. Will pass this on to the next shift for additional consideration.

After a primarily dry day (especially south of US 24 where rain ends
earliest) we'll be monitoring for afternoon thunderstorms to develop
over northwest Indiana along a meager prefrontal area. Despite bulk
shear of about 40 knots, MUCAPE will be limited to barely 500j/kg.
In this prefrontal area, forecast soundings exhibit poor lapse rates
near 6.5 C/km and a generally unidirectional wind profile. This
decreases forecast confidence in the evolution of any severe weather
from the prefrontal environment. Along the cold front, low-level
hodographs and mid-level lapse rates have improved, yet instability
remains paltry. Additionally, the environment could be worked over
by the preceding showers/storms. Overall, low confidence on the
slight risk of severe thunderstorms for tomorrow. General thinking
remains damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado, from about 5pm to
11pm EDT.

There are additional opportunities for severe storms both Friday and
perhaps Saturday when we remain in the warm sector preceding another
cold frontal passage Saturday afternoon. Sharply colder but
mercifully dry Sunday. High pressure attempts to take shape over the
Great Lakes through Wednesday, but energetic northwest flow
attempts to send clippers through the region. However, happy to
report that heavy precipitation is not expected Sunday through
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 140 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Warm front is currently lifting north and will bring another
round of showers with steadily lowering ceilings through the
morning. There remains a low (20%) chance of thunderstorms with
this activity but confidence in coverage is too low to mention
in the TAF's. Strengthening LLJ will also bring a period of
marginal LLWS this morning. As the LLJ mixes out later today
expect southerly winds gusting to around 35 kts. A cold front
then approaches the region Thursday night. A prefrontal trough
is expected to bring a line of showers and storms through the
area around 00Z with the best chances at KSBN.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for
LMZ043-046.

&&

UPDATE...Fisher
DISCUSSION...Brown
AVIATION...AGD

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
339 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

INZ005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-116-203-204-
216-MIZ078>081-177-277-OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025-021945-
Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-Pulaski-Marshall-
Fulton IN-Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-Miami-Wabash-Huntington-
Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Northern La Porte-
Eastern St. Joseph IN-Northern Kosciusko-Southern La Porte-
Western St. Joseph IN-Southern Kosciusko-Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-
Branch-Hillsdale-Northern Berrien-Southern Berrien-Williams-
Fulton OH-Defiance-Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
339 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026 /239 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana, southwest
Michigan and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...tonight.

Additional rain and isolated thunderstorms tonight will worsen any
ongoing flooding. However, the heaviest rain is forecast to be west
of Indiana State Route 15.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Breezy on Thursday with a 60% to 80% chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the late afternoon. Confidence is low in severe
weather occuring, but heavy rain, damaging wind gusts and a tornado
are the primary hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LMZ043-046-021945-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
339 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM
EDT FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters of
southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Small Craft Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Small Craft Advisory.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1053 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 PM     Flood            Dunfee                  41.09N 85.34W
04/01/2026                   Allen              IN   Public

            Photo on Facebook showing high water at the
            intersection of County Line Road and Bass
            Road on the far west side of Fort Wayne this
            afternoon. Report estimates water to be 18
            inches deep.

&&

MJ

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1056 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0701 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Spencerville            41.28N 84.92W
04/01/2026                   De Kalb            IN   Public

            Photo on Facebook showing a large pine tree
            uprooted. Time estimated via radar. Delayed
            report.

&&

MJ

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1212 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 AM     Flood            2 E Arcola              41.10N 85.26W
04/01/2026                   Allen              IN   Broadcast Media

            Local media shares picture of water over the
            road just east of the intersection of Arcola
            Rd and Yellow River Rd. Unknown how deep the
            water is.

&&

MJ

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1214 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     Flood            2 WSW Ridinger Lake     41.25N 85.70W
04/01/2026                   Kosciusko          IN   NWS Employee

            Standing water observed in numerous fields
            on SR 13, especially between East Old Road
            30 and East 150 North. Lots of standing
            water in ditches and along the roadway as
            well.

&&

MJ

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1218 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 PM     Flood            Avilla                  41.37N 85.24W
04/01/2026                   Noble              IN   Public

            Several reports of road closures on the
            southwest side of Avilla due to high water.
            Also saw a picture on Facebook of high water
            over and along SR 8 on the east side of
            town.

&&

MJ

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1219 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     Flood            1 ESE Warsaw            41.24N 85.83W
03/31/2026                   Kosciusko          IN   Public

            Video on Facebook showing high water on
            Market Street outside of Warsaw Bowling.
            Water estimated to be about 12 inches deep.
            Delayed report.

&&

MJ