Severe Thunderstorm Warning 133, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
727 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a marginal to slight risk for severe storms this
  evening and tonight (5pm to 1am EDT). Expect damaging winds to
  60 mph, hail up to around 1 inch in diameter with severe
  storms. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. Heavy rain
  and flooding is possible into the overnight hours.

- More widespread rain is expected Tuesday, with chances for
  non- severe thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs will be in
  the 50s and 60s, warmest along and south of US 24.

- Chances for Rain Wednesday and Friday, with isolated
  thunderstorms possible on Friday afternoon. Highs will be in
  the 50s, low 60s. Lows will be in the mid to upper 30s
  Wednesday night, and the 40s Thursday and Friday night.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 725 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026

SCT convection currently moving into the area ahead of a very
slow-moving cold front. Surface dewpoints struggling to get out
of the low 50s given deep mixing but steep midlevel lapse rates
still yielding 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Effective shear values are
relatively modest around 25-30 kts and in the absence of good
forcing for ascent, storms are struggling to organize. That will
continue to be the case for the next few hours. Some isolated 1"
hail and damaging winds are still possible in the W/NW zones
where slightly better moisture/instability reside and sun
remains up a bit longer. These storms will steadily weaken as
they move east during the late evening though with the loss of
daytime heating. Severe threat should diminish after 03Z as
storms approach the I-69 corridor.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 311 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026

This evening-tonight's marginal risk for severe weather was upgraded
to a slight risk for portions of the area. Confidence in severe
weather occurring is medium. There are some uncertainties with
regards to the start time of the event. Much of the guidance
initiates storms closest to 7-8 pm EDT, but there are still several
models that begin closer to 5-6 pm EDT. A lot will depend on the
available moisture-which could limit development initially (well
mixed boundary layer from full sun earlier today). A decent cu field
has developed for areas west or just along I 69 as of this writing.
Dewpoints are in the mid-upper 40s and low 50s, driest further north
in MI/NW Ohio. This is lower than what the earlier timed models
suggest (NAM/RAP)--values are closer in line to the HRRR. If the
HRRR is right, development may be closer to 8 pm EDT when the better
moisture arrives (still only mid 50s) with strengthening of the LLJ.

Main focus for convection will be a mid-level wave riding up from
the southwest this evening (aforementioned "warm-front-like" feature
in prev. AFD)-then the cold front that drops from NW to SE through
the overnight. The main threat with any severe storms would be
damaging wind gusts given inverted-V type soundings. Large hail is
also possible with 25-35 knots of 0-6km shear and mid level lapse
rates around 7C/KM (could be slightly higher further south of US 30
this evening per the NAM). Heavy rain and ponding of water on the
roads is a threat in any thunderstorms, however overnight there
could be some minor flooding in areas that receive repeated storm
activity (from both the earlier wave ahead of the cold front and
then the cold front itself).

SPC did add a 2 percent tornado risk with the increased low level
shear (decent hodographs)...however it's conditional on moisture
profiles as well (which is our greatest uncertainty). If we get the
deeper moisture we could see LCL's in the 500-1000 m range (more
favorable for tor risk). Per their discussion, they will re-
evaluate the moisture quality for the tor risk.

Otherwise, cold front continues eastward through Tuesday, stalling
near US 24, with surface low riding up along/southeast of it through
the afternoon. Rain will be fairly widespread (especially along this
corridor), with chances for a few thunderstorms (Non-severe). As the
surface low drifts E-SE through Wednesday, expect dwindling chances.
Dry conditions Thu, then chances for rain and a few storms return
Fri into the weekend. Highs Wed-Fri will be in the 50s, low 60s.
Overnight lows will be in the mid-upper 30s Wed night (coldest
along/north of I 80-90) with light winds-so there could be some
frost potential. Warmer Sat-Sun with highs in the mid-upper 60s, low
70s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 725 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026

Cold front and associated clusters of storms currently
approaching the area. These clusters will impact KSBN during
the next 4 hours and KFWA roughly 03-06Z. However, instability
will be waning by the time they reach KFWA and they could weaken
to just showers. There will be a brief lull in rain late tonight
but additional rain is likely on Tuesday as this front stalls
over the region. A few additional storms are possible at KFWA on
Tuesday but chances are low as is confidence in timing so will
hold off on mentioning for now. Some MVFR ceilings also likely
at KFWA Tuesday morning as cooler air filters into the area.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ043-
     046.

&&

UPDATE...AGD
DISCUSSION...MCD
AVIATION...AGD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
757 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

INZ103-050130-
Northern La Porte IN-
757 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN LA PORTE COUNTY THROUGH
830 PM CDT...

At 757 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Town of Pines, or near Michigan City, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Michigan City, Trail Creek, Long Beach, and Pottawattamie Park
  around 800 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Byron, Hudson Lake,
Hesston, Waterford, Michiana Shores, Springville, Pottawattomie Park,
and Rolling Prarie.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 80 in Indiana between mile markers 43 and 61.
 Interstate 94 in Indiana between mile markers 33 and 45.
 Interstate 94 in Michigan near mile marker 0.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4173 8690 4176 8682 4176 8653 4165 8653
      4165 8649 4158 8649 4162 8693 4171 8693
TIME...MOT...LOC 0057Z 270DEG 37KT 4172 8696

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

NWS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
921 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026

INZ005-104-MIZ078-050145-
Eastern St. Joseph IN-Elkhart IN-Cass MI-
921 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN ELKHART...
NORTHEASTERN ST. JOSEPH AND SOUTHERN CASS COUNTIES THROUGH 945 PM
EDT...

At 921 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Niles, moving east at 60 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
South Bend, Elkhart, Mishawaka, Niles, Granger, Simonton Lake,
Cassopolis, Bristol, Edwardsburg, Roseland, Union, Indian Village,
Dailey, Paradise Lake, Barron Lake, Calvin Center, Adamsville, Juno
Lake, Donnell Lake, and Jones.

This includes Interstate 80 in Indiana between mile markers 77 and
103.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4180 8576 4177 8579 4176 8578 4176 8575
      4167 8575 4170 8627 4176 8625 4176 8623
      4190 8622 4191 8576
TIME...MOT...LOC 0121Z 275DEG 51KT 4184 8630

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

NWS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
949 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0726 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 WNW Michigan City     41.73N 86.91W
05/04/2026  M58 MPH          LMZ046             IN   C-Man Station

            MCYI3 gusted to 50.7 kts at 19:26 EDT.

&&

MJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
950 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026

INZ103-104-203-204-050215-
Eastern St. Joseph IN-Western St. Joseph IN-Northern La Porte IN-
Southern La Porte IN-
950 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT ST. JOSEPH AND EAST CENTRAL LA
PORTE COUNTIES THROUGH 1015 PM EDT/915 PM CDT/...

At 950 PM EDT/850 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 7 miles northeast of Kingsford Heights, or 8 miles
southeast of La Porte, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
South Bend, Mishawaka, La Porte, Gulivoire Park, Granger, Osceola,
Walkerton, North Liberty, Kingsford Heights, Lakeville, Kingsbury,
South Center, Salem Heights, Fish Lake, Tracy, Crumstown, Stillwell,
Woodland, and Wyatt.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4162 8670 4172 8607 4148 8607 4148 8647
      4144 8647 4143 8664 4142 8668
TIME...MOT...LOC 0150Z 263DEG 39KT 4155 8658

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

NWS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
957 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0953 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Kingsford Heights       41.48N 86.69W
05/04/2026  E55 MPH          La Porte           IN   Trained Spotter

            Spotter estimated 50 to 55 mph wind gusts in
            Kingsford Heights.

&&

MJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
900 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

INZ012-203-050230-
Southern La Porte IN-Starke IN-
900 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT STARKE AND SOUTHERN LA PORTE
COUNTIES THROUGH 930 PM CDT...

At 859 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
La Crosse, or 12 miles west of Knox, moving east at 60 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Knox, North Judson, Hamlet, La Crosse, Koontz Lake, Oak Grove, Hanna,
Thomaston, Lomax, Ober, English Lake, South Wanatah, Brems, Toto,
Winona, Bass Lake, and Grovertown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4141 8693 4145 8653 4143 8652 4143 8647
      4122 8647 4122 8693
TIME...MOT...LOC 0159Z 268DEG 54KT 4133 8686

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

NWS