Severe Thunderstorm Warning 132, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
727 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a marginal to slight risk for severe storms this
  evening and tonight (5pm to 1am EDT). Expect damaging winds to
  60 mph, hail up to around 1 inch in diameter with severe
  storms. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. Heavy rain
  and flooding is possible into the overnight hours.

- More widespread rain is expected Tuesday, with chances for
  non- severe thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs will be in
  the 50s and 60s, warmest along and south of US 24.

- Chances for Rain Wednesday and Friday, with isolated
  thunderstorms possible on Friday afternoon. Highs will be in
  the 50s, low 60s. Lows will be in the mid to upper 30s
  Wednesday night, and the 40s Thursday and Friday night.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 725 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026

SCT convection currently moving into the area ahead of a very
slow-moving cold front. Surface dewpoints struggling to get out
of the low 50s given deep mixing but steep midlevel lapse rates
still yielding 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Effective shear values are
relatively modest around 25-30 kts and in the absence of good
forcing for ascent, storms are struggling to organize. That will
continue to be the case for the next few hours. Some isolated 1"
hail and damaging winds are still possible in the W/NW zones
where slightly better moisture/instability reside and sun
remains up a bit longer. These storms will steadily weaken as
they move east during the late evening though with the loss of
daytime heating. Severe threat should diminish after 03Z as
storms approach the I-69 corridor.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 311 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026

This evening-tonight's marginal risk for severe weather was upgraded
to a slight risk for portions of the area. Confidence in severe
weather occurring is medium. There are some uncertainties with
regards to the start time of the event. Much of the guidance
initiates storms closest to 7-8 pm EDT, but there are still several
models that begin closer to 5-6 pm EDT. A lot will depend on the
available moisture-which could limit development initially (well
mixed boundary layer from full sun earlier today). A decent cu field
has developed for areas west or just along I 69 as of this writing.
Dewpoints are in the mid-upper 40s and low 50s, driest further north
in MI/NW Ohio. This is lower than what the earlier timed models
suggest (NAM/RAP)--values are closer in line to the HRRR. If the
HRRR is right, development may be closer to 8 pm EDT when the better
moisture arrives (still only mid 50s) with strengthening of the LLJ.

Main focus for convection will be a mid-level wave riding up from
the southwest this evening (aforementioned "warm-front-like" feature
in prev. AFD)-then the cold front that drops from NW to SE through
the overnight. The main threat with any severe storms would be
damaging wind gusts given inverted-V type soundings. Large hail is
also possible with 25-35 knots of 0-6km shear and mid level lapse
rates around 7C/KM (could be slightly higher further south of US 30
this evening per the NAM). Heavy rain and ponding of water on the
roads is a threat in any thunderstorms, however overnight there
could be some minor flooding in areas that receive repeated storm
activity (from both the earlier wave ahead of the cold front and
then the cold front itself).

SPC did add a 2 percent tornado risk with the increased low level
shear (decent hodographs)...however it's conditional on moisture
profiles as well (which is our greatest uncertainty). If we get the
deeper moisture we could see LCL's in the 500-1000 m range (more
favorable for tor risk). Per their discussion, they will re-
evaluate the moisture quality for the tor risk.

Otherwise, cold front continues eastward through Tuesday, stalling
near US 24, with surface low riding up along/southeast of it through
the afternoon. Rain will be fairly widespread (especially along this
corridor), with chances for a few thunderstorms (Non-severe). As the
surface low drifts E-SE through Wednesday, expect dwindling chances.
Dry conditions Thu, then chances for rain and a few storms return
Fri into the weekend. Highs Wed-Fri will be in the 50s, low 60s.
Overnight lows will be in the mid-upper 30s Wed night (coldest
along/north of I 80-90) with light winds-so there could be some
frost potential. Warmer Sat-Sun with highs in the mid-upper 60s, low
70s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 725 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026

Cold front and associated clusters of storms currently
approaching the area. These clusters will impact KSBN during
the next 4 hours and KFWA roughly 03-06Z. However, instability
will be waning by the time they reach KFWA and they could weaken
to just showers. There will be a brief lull in rain late tonight
but additional rain is likely on Tuesday as this front stalls
over the region. A few additional storms are possible at KFWA on
Tuesday but chances are low as is confidence in timing so will
hold off on mentioning for now. Some MVFR ceilings also likely
at KFWA Tuesday morning as cooler air filters into the area.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ043-
     046.

&&

UPDATE...AGD
DISCUSSION...MCD
AVIATION...AGD

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