Severe Thunderstorm Warning 114, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
200 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue
  through Thursday. Strong to severe storms are possible this
  afternoon into tonight.

- A Flood Watch is in effect for the entire area through tonight
  as additional rainfall may cause renewed flooding in some
  areas.

- A brief break is expected Thursday night into Friday before a
  stronger front arrives with more showers and thunderstorms.

- Overall temperatures will remain above normal, with a dip to
  near or slightly below normal Sunday behind the cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 150 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

While the overall severe threat is less for the next day or 2, the
potential for strong to possibly severe storms as well as heavy rain
will persist into Thursday as the region remains on the warm side of
a persistent trough to the west. The discussion will focus mainly
through Saturday before the pattern breaks for at least a short
time. A series of MCV's and other weaker disturbances, remnant
outflow boundaries and a decent upper level trough, will all
aid in the development of multiple rounds of showers and storms
into Thursday. Greatest severe threat today appears to exist
where it has the past couple of days from IA/IL area southwest
into OK and TX, but our area lies in a Slight risk (2 out of 5)
for large hail and damaging winds. Cloud cover and multiple
rounds of precip will likely limit more substantial instability,
but enough shear and CAPE will exist to bring a threat for stg-
svr storms.

The first round of showers/storms was moving northeast across
NW parts of the area. A small area of storms has been
intensifying with strong indications of hail and possibly gusty
winds. This will continue ENE and pose a threat for severe
weather. SWOMCD #446 was just sent by SPC discussing the
concerns through the remainder of the afternoon. CAMs generally
suggest another round towards 00Z and again overnight as the
sfc low passes to our NW. Severe threat could return again
towards evening with all modes of severe possible again, but
impacts of current storms could limit the concerns. On the
hydro side, most areas dodged the heavy rainfall last night (far
south and far north mainly), but with several rounds expected
through tonight, opted to expand the Flood Watch to the entire
area and expire at 12Z Thu. Do not expect widespread flood
issues, but there will be swaths of heavier rainfall that could
impact small creeks, streams and low areas as well as eventually
cause rising river levels.

Showers may linger into the start of Thursday, but model trends seem
to suggest that the severe threat may shift more towards the east as
the area is likely convectively overturned and main upper level
support is exiting. SPC DY2 reflects this with a Marginal Risk
across SE half or so of the area and could see this possibly being
trimmed further in future outlooks.

In the wake of the trough and increasing upper level heights we
should get a break in precip Thursday night into Friday evening
before a stronger trough (entering the Pacific NW) dives into the
Plains and eventually makes it to the Great Lakes into Sat. Shower
and thunderstorm chances will increase with this, but overall timing
of the cold front now favors a less than ideal situation (late Fri
night into early Sat). This is reflected with the main severe threat
Fri to our west and then the 15% severe prob mainly east on Sat.
Time to sort that out. Colder air then arrives behind this front
with a brief return to 40s and 50s Sunday then moderation back into
the 60s and 60s for the work week. Rain chances appear limited at
this point, but another strong trough will be to the west that most
likely will bring precip chances back.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 119 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

MVFR vsbys cigs in scattered thunderstorms this afternoon for
both sites mainly through 21Z and again after 02Z tonight.
Convective activity will diminish towards daybreak with VFR
conditions then expected into Thursday afternoon. Southwesterly
winds will be around 10-15 kts with stronger gusts in
thunderstorm outflows. Breezy southwest winds continue on
Thursday with gusts around 25 kts.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for INZ005>009-012>015-
     017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-116-203-204-216.
OH...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for OHZ001-002-004-005-
     015-016-024-025.
MI...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for MIZ078>081-177-277.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Fisher
AVIATION...Cobb

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
535 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

INZ005>009-012-014-103-104-116-203-204-216-MIZ078>081-177-277-OHZ001-
002-004-005-160945-
Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-Marshall-
Northern La Porte-Eastern St. Joseph IN-Northern Kosciusko-
Southern La Porte-Western St. Joseph IN-Southern Kosciusko-Cass MI-
St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale-Northern Berrien-Southern Berrien-
Williams-Fulton OH-Defiance-Henry-
535 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 /435 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026/

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana, southwest
Michigan and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

Scattered thunderstorms today. A few of the storms may become strong
to severe. Gusty winds, hail, and heavy rainfall will be possible
within thunderstorms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There are chances of thunderstorms Thursday and then again Friday
night into Saturday. A few severe storms are possible Thursday with
better chances arriving Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

INZ013-015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-OHZ015-016-024-025-160945-
Pulaski-Fulton IN-Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-Miami-Wabash-
Huntington-Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-
Allen OH-
535 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana and
northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms expected today. A few of the storms may
become strong to severe. Gusty winds, hail, and heavy rainfall will
be possible within thunderstorms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There are chances of thunderstorms Thursday, and then again Friday
night into Saturday. Isolated severe storms are possible Thursday
with better chances arriving Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

LMZ043-046-160945-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
535 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters of
southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms today with gusty winds and small hail as the
main threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There are continued chances of thunderstorms Thursday and then again
late Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
116 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

INZ015-022-023-151745-
Miami IN-Cass IN-Fulton IN-
116 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT FULTON...NORTHEASTERN CASS AND
NORTHWESTERN MIAMI COUNTIES THROUGH 145 PM EDT...

At 116 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles southwest of Rochester, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Rochester, Kewanna, Fulton, Macy, Nyena Lake, Leases Corner,
Deedsville, Athens, Grass Creek, Tiosa, Fletcher, Lake Manitou,
Gilead, Lucerne, Talma, Marshtown, and Bruce Lake Station.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Northern Indiana.

&&

LAT...LON 4104 8647 4117 8623 4117 8613 4090 8594
      4086 8644 4093 8647
TIME...MOT...LOC 1716Z 250DEG 37KT 4097 8636

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

CLH

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
207 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0205 PM     Hail             Pierceton               41.20N 85.71W
04/15/2026  E0.75 Inch       Kosciusko          IN   Public

            Report from mPING: Dime (0.75 in.).

&&

LWF

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
218 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     Hail             2 ESE Winona Lake       41.21N 85.79W
04/15/2026  E1.00 Inch       Kosciusko          IN   Amateur Radio

            Reported at the Stonehenge Golf Course.

&&

LWF

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>