Severe Thunderstorm Warning 112, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
126 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue
  through today, though the potential for severe weather remains
  uncertain with intensity dependent on how previous activity
  evolves.

- Additional chances for showers and thunderstorms exist
  Thursday through Saturday, with potential for severe weather
  dependent on the previous thunderstorm activity.

- A Flood Watch remains in effect through this evening as swaths
  of locally heavy rain is expected on already saturated grounds
  and high river and lake levels.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 841 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Quick update to the forecast to increase pops into early
afternoon.

Small cluster of storms across far southern MI this morning has
moved northeast with some occasional light returns further south
into N Indiana. Looking back to the SW, radar and sfc obs
indicate a MCV in west central IL with an area of showers and
storms trying to expand while moving NE. Several of the models
suggest this continues NE reaching the area in a few hours and
lingering into the early afternoon. HRRR is the more robust with
maybe some stronger storm potential. Plenty of shear is in place
with instability on the lower side (500-1000 J/KG of MUCAPE) per
SPC Mesoanalysis and 12Z KILX sounding. While some increase in
temps is expected through the morning, extensive cloud cover
will limit overall heating. Will be monitoring trends over the
next couple of hours for maybe a "marginal" threat of stg-svr
storms. Given the trends, felt it was warranted to keep likely
pops for many areas into early afternoon vs the taper off to chc
that was in place.

Flood watch remains in effect across the northern half. May need
to expand southward depending on evolution of the morning
convection as well as trends for afternoon/evening storms as
PWATs remain in the 1.25 to 1.4" range and depth of warm layer
shy of 12,000 ft all point towards a continued heavy rain
threat.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1257 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

While a primary trough will lift out of the Rockies into the
central plains over the coming 12-18 hours, multiple embedded
waves ahead of this trough through the active flow aloft will
continue to produce periods of shower and thunderstorm activity
across the region today. Forecast soundings depict fairly
saturated atmospheric profiles with precipitable water values
exceeding 1.2-1.4 inches, which will aid in producing heavy
rainfall rates with any thunderstorm that develops. A Flood
Watch remains in effect through this evening for the northern
half of the forecast area given the potential for heavy rain,
though a flooding threat cannot be ruled out further south.

The severe thunderstorm threat remains complicated today with
instability looking more difficult to come by as early morning
convective debris and intermittent shower activity will limit
CAPE values. That said, strong mid- level flow with 40-50 knots
of 0-6km shear will be more than sufficient for organized
convection if adequate surface heating and subsequent
destabilization occurs. For now the severe threat today looks
conditional but worth watching.

A sharper trough moves through the area on Thursday bringing
additional chances for showers and thunderstorms. Strong shear
and adequate instability should bring another day of at least a
marginal severe threat. Attention will then turn to the likely
arrival of a much deeper trough by this weekend, which has
triggered an early highlight by SPC for severe weather potential
on Saturday. A sharp cool-down and gusty winds behind the
associated cold front is likely on Sunday, with a moderation in
temperatures through the first half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 119 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

MVFR vsbys cigs in scattered thunderstorms this afternoon for
both sites mainly through 21Z and again after 02Z tonight.
Convective activity will diminish towards daybreak with VFR
conditions then expected into Thursday afternoon. Southwesterly
winds will be around 10-15 kts with stronger gusts in
thunderstorm outflows. Breezy southwest winds continue on
Thursday with gusts around 25 kts.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for INZ005>009-012>015-
     017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-116-203-204-216.
OH...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for OHZ001-002-004-005-
     015-016-024-025.
MI...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for MIZ078>081-177-277.
MARINE...None.

&&

UPDATE...Fisher
DISCUSSION...Edwards
AVIATION...Cobb

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
535 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

INZ005>009-012-014-103-104-116-203-204-216-MIZ078>081-177-277-OHZ001-
002-004-005-160945-
Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-Marshall-
Northern La Porte-Eastern St. Joseph IN-Northern Kosciusko-
Southern La Porte-Western St. Joseph IN-Southern Kosciusko-Cass MI-
St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale-Northern Berrien-Southern Berrien-
Williams-Fulton OH-Defiance-Henry-
535 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 /435 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026/

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana, southwest
Michigan and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

Scattered thunderstorms today. A few of the storms may become strong
to severe. Gusty winds, hail, and heavy rainfall will be possible
within thunderstorms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There are chances of thunderstorms Thursday and then again Friday
night into Saturday. A few severe storms are possible Thursday with
better chances arriving Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

INZ013-015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-OHZ015-016-024-025-160945-
Pulaski-Fulton IN-Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-Miami-Wabash-
Huntington-Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-
Allen OH-
535 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana and
northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms expected today. A few of the storms may
become strong to severe. Gusty winds, hail, and heavy rainfall will
be possible within thunderstorms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There are chances of thunderstorms Thursday, and then again Friday
night into Saturday. Isolated severe storms are possible Thursday
with better chances arriving Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

LMZ043-046-160945-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
535 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters of
southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms today with gusty winds and small hail as the
main threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There are continued chances of thunderstorms Thursday and then again
late Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
116 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

INZ015-022-023-151745-
Miami IN-Cass IN-Fulton IN-
116 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT FULTON...NORTHEASTERN CASS AND
NORTHWESTERN MIAMI COUNTIES THROUGH 145 PM EDT...

At 116 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles southwest of Rochester, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Rochester, Kewanna, Fulton, Macy, Nyena Lake, Leases Corner,
Deedsville, Athens, Grass Creek, Tiosa, Fletcher, Lake Manitou,
Gilead, Lucerne, Talma, Marshtown, and Bruce Lake Station.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Northern Indiana.

&&

LAT...LON 4104 8647 4117 8623 4117 8613 4090 8594
      4086 8644 4093 8647
TIME...MOT...LOC 1716Z 250DEG 37KT 4097 8636

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

CLH