Flash Flood Warning 68, NWS Indianapolis, IN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
903 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heavy rain and localized flash flooding remain the primary concern
  this morning

- The additional rain may worsen an already significant flooding
  event.

- Some severe storms remain possible today, mainly in the predawn
  to morning hours

- Additional storm chances continue into the weekend

- Warmer and more humid conditions return Saturday before drier and
  cooler weather settles in Sunday through early next week

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 903 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Surface analysis this morning shows a trough of low pressure
stretched from Central IL to Indianapolis and then east to Dayton.
GOES19 shows an extensive area of thunderstorms stretching from IA,
across IL to Indiana and OH. Cloud tops were warming, indicating a
general weakening of the system. Best area for development was over
SE IL and West Central Indiana where a few of the stronger storms
were located. The air mass south of the boundary remained favorable
for convection with dew points in the lower 70s. More rain cooled,
cold pool air was found across northern Central Indiana.

This afternoon, the trough of low pressure will remain across
central Indiana. Convection across the area is expected to wane as
instability across Central Indiana will become more limited. 310K
isentropic surface continues to show lift into the afternoon amid
high specific humidities.  Forecast soundings are expected to dry
out somewhat this afternoon, However by late in the day high CAPE
and high pwats return. Convective temperatures in the upper 80s may
be difficult to reach given the clouds that should be lingering much
of the day. HRRR suggests rain will end later this morning, giving
way to cloudy skies. Thus will keep high pops the next few hours,
but trend toward low chc pops this afternoon should any convection
be able to establish. Confidence in this is low as clouds and a rain
cooled air mass should hamper quick rises of temperature. Highs will
be trended slightly cooler to the lower 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION (Today through Thursday)...
Issued at 145 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Through Mid-Morning...

Thunderstorms will continue to spread south and east across central
Indiana during the predawn hours as an 850mb jet increases and
provides lift over a surface boundary. Shear and elevated
instability has already lead to large hail reports, and some
isolated wind damage has occurred as well.

The severe threat will persist through dawn with little change
expected in the overall setup.

With precipitable water values near 2 inches, heavy rain will be a
threat with any storm. Potential training of storms will increase
the flooding threat. Unfortunately, ensembles focus the heaviest
rain on the northern half of central Indiana, including areas
already hit hard by flooding. Current radar trends also support
those areas potentially seeing that heavy rain. Will continue to
message the heightened threat.

Storms should weaken diurnally after sunrise as the 850mb jet
weakens, but that hasn't always been the case recently. Went high
PoPs through around 12Z for the north 5/8 of the area or so, then
dropped them back into the chance category.

Late Morning through the Afternoon...

Will continue to lower PoPs into early afternoon with no decent
forcing and a worked over atmosphere. During the remainder of the
afternoon, some recovery will occur so cannot rule out an isolated
shower or storm. Kept slight chance PoPs around most areas.

Highs today will depend on how well clouds clear out today and how
far south the thicker clouds initially get. For now have lowered
guidance a bit north where clouds are likely to linger longest. Went
with highs in the lower 80s northeast to lower 90s southwest. These
may have to be adjusted later.

With the high moisture content of the atmosphere, heat indices may
exceed 100 degrees southwest.

Tonight...

Some upper energy may trigger isolated to scattered convection
across the northeast half to two-thirds of the area. Lows will be in
the upper 60s to middle 70s. If cloud cover remains relatively low
southwest, some patchy fog may form.

Saturday and Saturday Night...

An upper wave will ride along the end of the upper ridge and move
through Lower Michigan and far northern Indiana on Saturday. This
will bring forcing to interact with decent moisture and produce some
convection. The bulk of this should remain north of central Indiana,
closer to the upper forcing. At the surface, a warm front will move
north and bring some additional forcing. Will go mainly high chance
PoPs north with lower PoPs south. These will linger into Saturday
evening before diminishing as the upper wave exits.

Some isolated severe storms are possible given expected instability
and shear.

The passage of the warm front will bring in highs in the upper 80s
to middle 90s, with the potential for heat indices of 100-105
degrees.

Sunday and Sunday Night...

Some additional upper energy will move through the upper flow, and
the upper flow will become more northwest. This will allow a surface
cold front to move through the area, bringing more chances for
showers and thunderstorms.

Highs will generally be in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Depending on
the timing of convection, heat indices over 100 are possible again.

Monday and Tuesday...

Surface high pressure moving in behind the cold front will bring dry
conditions to most areas during this period, with temperatures
closer to normal.

Wednesday and beyond...

Another surface front will move through Wednesday into Thursday.
Return flow on the back side of the high pressure will allow
moisture to return to the area, so will have some slight chance to
chance PoPs around. Highest PoPs are expected on Wednesday, but some
uncertainty remains on the timing.

Temperatures will warm ahead of the front on Wednesday, but cooler
air may return for Thursday into Friday.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 723 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Impacts:

- MVFR and worse in convection at times through 14Z

- Mainly VFR during the day, but some potential for MVFR
  before 18Z.

Discussion:

Ongoing convection will gradually diminish over the next couple of
hours. Lower visibility (MVFR) will be possibly briefly as the
storms pass. The best chance of seeing the impact will be at HUF
as convection sags southeastward.

Wind may vary thanks to thunderstorm outflow and remnant
boundaries through the daylight morning hours.

Another round of convection will be possible late tonight at LAF,
but that will be just beyond the end of this TAF issuance. Did
include a PROB30 at IND for Saturday morning between roughly
14Z-18Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through this evening for INZ021-028>031-035>049-
051>057-060>065-069>072.

&&

UPDATE...Puma
AVIATION...Cooley
DISCUSSION...50

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
203 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-150615-
Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-Boone-
Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke-Putnam-
Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan-Johnson-Shelby-
Rush-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-Decatur-Knox-Daviess-
Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings-
203 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Flooding will continue across mainly eastern portions of central
Indiana. Some portions of the Upper White River and Big Blue River
may reach major flood stage.

Strong to severe storms are possible this morning. Heavy rain will
remain a threat this morning as well, especially north of Interstate
74. This may cause new or worsen existing flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Thunderstorms will be possible at times through the weekend along
with continued river flooding. An isolated strong to severe storm is
possible on Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this morning. Please report
incidents of flooding, large hail, or wind damage.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
538 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 AM     Flash Flood      2 ESE State Line City   40.19N 87.49W
08/14/2026                   Warren             IN   Public

            Ditch filled and overflowed causing flash
            flooding between County Road W850S and
            W950S.

&&

AW

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
558 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 E New Market          39.95N 86.90W
08/14/2026                   Montgomery         IN   Dept of Highways

            Tree down over road. Time estimated from
            radar.

&&

AW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
617 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

INZ035-043-044-141045-
Fountain IN-Parke IN-Vermillion IN-
617 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southern Fountain,
northwestern Parke and central Vermillion Counties through 645 AM
EDT...

At 616 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Newport, or 17 miles southeast of Danville, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Rockville, Newport, Cayuga, Kingman, Bloomingdale, Marshall, Turkey
Run State Park, and Lodi.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3990 8753 4000 8753 4000 8743 3997 8709
      3995 8709 3975 8720 3989 8754
TIME...MOT...LOC 1016Z 290DEG 33KT 3993 8746

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

AGM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
731 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 SSE Crawfordsville    40.02N 86.88W
08/14/2026                   Montgomery         IN   911 Call Center

            Late report of multiple trees and power
            lines downed across Montgomery County by
            thunderstorm wind gusts. Time estimated by
            radar.

0245 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     5 ENE Linden            40.22N 86.82W
08/14/2026                   Tippecanoe         IN   911 Call Center

            Late report of thunderstorm wind damage.
            Time estimated by radar.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
807 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

INZ051-052-060-061-141300-
Clay IN-Greene IN-Vigo IN-Sullivan IN-
807 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Vigo, northern
Sullivan, Clay and northwestern Greene Counties through 900 AM EDT...

At 807 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Marshall to near Hutsonville. Movement was
east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Terre Haute, Brazil, Sullivan, West Terre Haute, Jasonville,
Shelburn, Prairieton, Prairie Creek, Farmersburg, Seelyville, Dugger,
Knightsville, Clay City, Hymera, Fairbanks, Harmony, Staunton, Center
Point, Merom, and Riley.

This includes Interstate 70 between mile markers 1 and 25.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3915 8765 3922 8757 3925 8757 3925 8760
      3928 8761 3930 8760 3931 8762 3934 8758
      3934 8756 3935 8753 3954 8753 3957 8707
      3908 8710 3906 8758 3909 8762 3910 8762
      3910 8765 3911 8765 3912 8763 3913 8766
TIME...MOT...LOC 1207Z 278DEG 27KT 3943 8762 3908 8763

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

GM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
833 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     Flash Flood      3 ESE State Line City   40.18N 87.48W
08/14/2026                   Warren             IN   911 Call Center

            Water rescue of a vehicle washed into a
            ditch on County Road 950 South. Time
            estimated.

&&

AGM