Flash Flood Warning 62, NWS Indianapolis, IN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
146 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heavy rain and localized flash flooding remain the primary concern
  this morning

- The additional rain may worsen an already significant flooding
  event.

- Some severe storms remain possible today, mainly in the predawn
  to morning hours

- Additional storm chances continue into the weekend

- Warmer and more humid conditions return Saturday before drier and
  cooler weather settles in Sunday through early next week

&&

.DISCUSSION (Today through Thursday)...
Issued at 145 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Through Mid-Morning...

Thunderstorms will continue to spread south and east across central
Indiana during the predawn hours as an 850mb jet increases and
provides lift over a surface boundary. Shear and elevated
instability has already lead to large hail reports, and some
isolated wind damage has occurred as well.

The severe threat will persist through dawn with little change
expected in the overall setup.

With precipitable water values near 2 inches, heavy rain will be a
threat with any storm. Potential training of storms will increase
the flooding threat. Unfortunately, ensembles focus the heaviest
rain on the northern half of central Indiana, including areas
already hit hard by flooding. Current radar trends also support
those areas potentially seeing that heavy rain. Will continue to
message the heightened threat.

Storms should weaken diurnally after sunrise as the 850mb jet
weakens, but that hasn't always been the case recently. Went high
PoPs through around 12Z for the north 5/8 of the area or so, then
dropped them back into the chance category.

Late Morning through the Afternoon...

Will continue to lower PoPs into early afternoon with no decent
forcing and a worked over atmosphere. During the remainder of the
afternoon, some recovery will occur so cannot rule out an isolated
shower or storm. Kept slight chance PoPs around most areas.

Highs today will depend on how well clouds clear out today and how
far south the thicker clouds initially get. For now have lowered
guidance a bit north where clouds are likely to linger longest. Went
with highs in the lower 80s northeast to lower 90s southwest. These
may have to be adjusted later.

With the high moisture content of the atmosphere, heat indices may
exceed 100 degrees southwest.

Tonight...

Some upper energy may trigger isolated to scattered convection
across the northeast half to two-thirds of the area. Lows will be in
the upper 60s to middle 70s. If cloud cover remains relatively low
southwest, some patchy fog may form.

Saturday and Saturday Night...

An upper wave will ride along the end of the upper ridge and move
through Lower Michigan and far northern Indiana on Saturday. This
will bring forcing to interact with decent moisture and produce some
convection. The bulk of this should remain north of central Indiana,
closer to the upper forcing. At the surface, a warm front will move
north and bring some additional forcing. Will go mainly high chance
PoPs north with lower PoPs south. These will linger into Saturday
evening before diminishing as the upper wave exits.

Some isolated severe storms are possible given expected instability
and shear.

The passage of the warm front will bring in highs in the upper 80s
to middle 90s, with the potential for heat indices of 100-105
degrees.

Sunday and Sunday Night...

Some additional upper energy will move through the upper flow, and
the upper flow will become more northwest. This will allow a surface
cold front to move through the area, bringing more chances for
showers and thunderstorms.

Highs will generally be in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Depending on
the timing of convection, heat indices over 100 are possible again.

Monday and Tuesday...

Surface high pressure moving in behind the cold front will bring dry
conditions to most areas during this period, with temperatures
closer to normal.

Wednesday and beyond...

Another surface front will move through Wednesday into Thursday.
Return flow on the back side of the high pressure will allow
moisture to return to the area, so will have some slight chance to
chance PoPs around. Highest PoPs are expected on Wednesday, but some
uncertainty remains on the timing.

Temperatures will warm ahead of the front on Wednesday, but cooler
air may return for Thursday into Friday.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 123 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Impacts:

- MVFR and worse in convection at times through 13Z or so

- Mainly VFR during the day, but some potential for MVFR
  before 18Z.

Discussion:

Convection will spread south and east during the first quarter or so
of the TAF period with MVFR and worse in the convection. Convection
should weaken around 12-14Z leaving dissipating showers. Can't rule
out isolated convection in the afternoon but odds are too low to
mention.

Some guidance is showing MVFR lingering during the daylight morning
hours, but confidence isn't high on its extent. For now did this for
KLAF but may have to include KIND with later issuances.

Wind may vary thanks to thunderstorm outflow and remnant boundaries
through the daylight morning hours.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through this evening for INZ021-028>031-035>049-
051>057-060>065-069>072.

&&

AVIATION...50
DISCUSSION...50

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
203 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-150615-
Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-Boone-
Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke-Putnam-
Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan-Johnson-Shelby-
Rush-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-Decatur-Knox-Daviess-
Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings-
203 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Flooding will continue across mainly eastern portions of central
Indiana. Some portions of the Upper White River and Big Blue River
may reach major flood stage.

Strong to severe storms are possible this morning. Heavy rain will
remain a threat this morning as well, especially north of Interstate
74. This may cause new or worsen existing flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Thunderstorms will be possible at times through the weekend along
with continued river flooding. An isolated strong to severe storm is
possible on Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this morning. Please report
incidents of flooding, large hail, or wind damage.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
128 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1224 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Alexandria              40.26N 85.68W
08/14/2026                   Madison            IN   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Tree onto a home.

&&

AW

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
150 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0142 AM     Flash Flood      3 ENE Alexandria        40.28N 85.62W
08/14/2026                   Madison            IN   Emergency Mngr

            State Road 28 is flooded with less than 1
            lane clear of water.

&&

AW

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
152 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 NW Goldsmith          40.32N 86.19W
08/14/2026  E60 MPH          Tipton             IN   Law Enforcement

&&

AW

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
158 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0133 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     6 NNE Straughn          39.89N 85.26W
08/14/2026                   Henry              IN   Public

            Picture received of large tree limbs downed.
            Time estimated from radar.

&&

AW

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
202 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0152 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 W Williamsport        40.29N 87.33W
08/14/2026                   Warren             IN   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Trees and power lines downed. Time estimated
            from radar.

&&

AW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
230 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

INZ028>031-035>040-043-044-140730-
Howard IN-Clinton IN-Montgomery IN-Tipton IN-Fountain IN-Madison IN-
Boone IN-Parke IN-Warren IN-Vermillion IN-Tippecanoe IN-Hamilton IN-
230 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of central Madison,
Fountain, southern Tippecanoe, Clinton, southwestern Howard, northern
Parke, Boone, central Warren, Hamilton, Tipton, northern Vermillion
and Montgomery Counties through 330 AM EDT...

At 230 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Tipton to 7 miles east of Westville.
Movement was southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lafayette, Anderson, Frankfort, Crawfordsville, Noblesville, Lebanon,
Tipton, Covington, Veedersburg, Williamsport, Newport, Westfield,
Cicero, Attica, Whitestown, Sheridan, Chesterfield, Lapel, Edgewood,
and Arcadia.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 65 between mile markers 133 and 169.
 Interstate 74 between mile markers 1 and 51.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4039 8696 4041 8615 4009 8557 3982 8752
      4026 8753
TIME...MOT...LOC 0630Z 319DEG 20KT 4028 8595 4004 8750

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Nield