Tornado Warning 121, NWS Lincoln, IL

795 
WWUS53 KILX 212127 RRA
SVSILX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
427 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

ILC025-049-212137-
/O.CAN.KILX.TO.W.0121.000000T0000Z-260621T2145Z/
Clay-Effingham-
427 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL CLAY AND SOUTHEASTERN
EFFINGHAM COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer appears capable of producing a tornado.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for south central
and southeastern Illinois.

&&

LAT...LON 3892 8856 3903 8837 3902 8836 3889 8836
      3889 8855
TIME...MOT...LOC 2125Z 239DEG 29KT 3898 8836 

$$

Erwin

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
341 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Tornado Watch is in effect for locations along and south of
  a Shelbyville to Paris line through 9pm this evening.

- Below normal temperatures will persist through the week
  before a marked warming trend pushes readings well into the
  80s close to 90 degrees by next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 341 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

*** Tornado Watch ***

20z/3pm radar imagery shows a band of rain with embedded
thunderstorms pushing across central Illinois. The pre-storm
environment remains stable across a large portion of the area:
however, MLCAPEs have increased to 500-1000J/kg south of a warm
frontal boundary draped along the I-70 corridor. With surface
dewpoints in the upper 60s/lower 70s in the warm sector, RAP
suggests further destabilization over the next 3-4 hours as
MLCAPEs reach 1000-1500J/kg. Deep-layer shear is currently being
augmented by an approaching MCV, while 0-1km shear has increased
to 20-25kt near the boundary. As a result, the southern part of
the rain band now contains rotating supercells capable of
producing tornadoes and damaging wind gusts. A Tornado Watch has
subsequently been issued for locations along/south of a
Shelbyville to Paris line through 9pm. Based on radar trends and
latest HRRR/RAP data, it appears the primary storm risk will
push into Indiana by 6-7pm. Meanwhile further west, will have to
keep an eye on a broken line of much weaker cells currently
firing along a Quincy to Kansas City line. These storms are in a
much more unfavorable environment and are not expected to
become severe: however, gusty winds will still be possible into
the evening as they spread E/SE into central Illinois...mainly
along/south of the I-72 corridor.

*** Quiet Mid-Week ***

Cool/dry weather will settle into the region for Monday and
Tuesday with daytime highs well below normal for this time of
year in the 70s and overnight lows dipping into the 50s. Given
persistent upper troughing over Canada, northwesterly flow will
continue for the rest of the week. The next embedded short-wave
trough and accompanying cold front will push through central
Illinois on Wednesday. While deep-layer moisture will be
lacking, there will be strong enough forcing to warrant low
chance PoPs (30-40%) for showers/thunder, especially during the
afternoon and evening.

*** Weekend Warm-Up and Storm Risk ***

The mid-week frontal boundary is progged to stall across the
Ohio River Valley on Thursday, then begin lifting slowly back
northward by the weekend as upper heights rise in response to an
upstream trough digging west of the Rockies. While the exact
speed of this process is still in question, model consensus
indicates the most favorable period for rain will be from late
Friday through late Saturday when several bouts of convection
may develop along/north of the front. It is still too early to
discuss any specific severe weather risks: however, all machine
learning algorithms show low probabilities (less than 15% chance)
for severe. Once the boundary lifts into the Great Lakes, a
return to more typical summertime weather is anticipated for
early next week. In fact, the 12z NBM shows a 30-50% chance for
temperatures climbing above 90 degrees by next Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Showers and a few thunderstorms are overspreading central
Illinois early this afternoon with additional development
possible behind this initial line. Confidence in details on
coverage/location of late afternoon/evening storms remains low,
thus precludes more than a prob30 mention at this time.
Meanwhile, E/ESE winds currently in place are expected to back
to NE by late this evening as weak low pressure moves across the
region. MVFR and eventually IFR ceilings will accompany the low
passage, with slow improvement expected from the northwest
behind the departing wave Monday.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Monday for ILZ038-042>046-048>057-
061>063-066>068-071>073.

&&

KEY MESSAGES...Barnes
DISCUSSION...Barnes
AVIATION...Deubelbeiss

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
337 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-222045-
Knox-Stark-Peoria-Marshall-Woodford-Fulton-Tazewell-McLean-Schuyler-
Mason-Logan-De Witt-Piatt-Champaign-Vermilion-Cass-Menard-Scott-
Morgan-Sangamon-Christian-Macon-Moultrie-Douglas-Coles-Edgar-Shelby-
Cumberland-Clark-Effingham-Jasper-Crawford-Clay-Richland-Lawrence-
337 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois, east
central Illinois, southeast Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected through this evening with some potentially
strong to severe south of a Shelbyville to Paris line. Damaging wind
gusts and a few isolated tornadoes are possible. In addition, locally
heavy rain is expected which will lead to some pockets of flooding.

Several rivers are in minor to moderate flood today, and additional
rises are expected following heavy rainfall tonight. Rivers expected
to flood include portions of the Illinois, Sangamon, Wabash, Little
Wabash, and Spoon Rivers.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Several rivers will continue in minor to moderate flood for many
days, including portions of the Illinois, Wabash, Little Wabash,
Sangamon, and Spoon Rivers.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed through this evening.

Expected storm motion is toward the northeast around 40 mph.

Deubelbeiss

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
329 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     Funnel Cloud     3 N Xenia               38.68N 88.63W
06/21/2026                   Clay               IL   Fire Dept/Rescue

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
331 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0319 PM     Funnel Cloud     3 SE Mode               39.24N 88.70W
06/21/2026                   Shelby             IL   Storm Chaser

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
343 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0334 PM     Tornado          Louisville              38.77N 88.50W
06/21/2026                   Clay               IL   Emergency Mngr

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
351 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0347 PM     Tornado          3 W Ingraham            38.84N 88.38W
06/21/2026                   Clay               IL   Emergency Mngr

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
407 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0406 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 ENE Neoga             39.33N 88.43W
06/21/2026                   Cumberland         IL   Emergency Mngr

            Semi flipped over on Interstate 57 at Neoga.

&&