Tornado Warning 117, NWS Lincoln, IL

733 
WWUS53 KILX 212034
SVSILX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
334 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

ILC025-049-079-159-212100-
/O.CON.KILX.TO.W.0117.000000T0000Z-260621T2100Z/
Jasper-Richland-Clay-Effingham-
334 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN JASPER...NORTHERN RICHLAND...NORTHEASTERN CLAY AND
SOUTHEASTERN EFFINGHAM COUNTIES...

At 334 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Louisville, or 8 miles north of Flora, moving
northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This dangerous storm will be near...
  Bible Grove around 340 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Wakefield, Wendelin, and Ingraham.

This also includes Newton Lake State Fish and Wildlife Area.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3874 8851 3878 8855 3889 8847 3901 8832
      3884 8820
TIME...MOT...LOC 2034Z 226DEG 32KT 3879 8850 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

$$

Erwin

568 
WWUS53 KILX 212037
SVSILX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
337 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

ILC025-049-079-159-212100-
/O.CON.KILX.TO.W.0117.000000T0000Z-260621T2100Z/
Jasper-Richland-Clay-Effingham-
337 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN JASPER...NORTHERN RICHLAND...NORTHEASTERN CLAY AND
SOUTHEASTERN EFFINGHAM COUNTIES...

At 336 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located over Louisville, or 9
miles north of Flora, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This tornado will be near...
  Bible Grove around 340 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Wakefield, Wendelin, and Ingraham.

This also includes Newton Lake State Fish and Wildlife Area.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a
basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3874 8851 3878 8855 3889 8847 3901 8832
      3884 8820
TIME...MOT...LOC 2036Z 226DEG 32KT 3881 8848 

TORNADO...OBSERVED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

$$

Erwin

522 
WWUS53 KILX 212047
SVSILX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
347 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

ILC025-049-079-159-212100-
/O.CON.KILX.TO.W.0117.000000T0000Z-260621T2100Z/
Jasper-Richland-Clay-Effingham-
347 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN JASPER...NORTHERN RICHLAND...NORTHEASTERN CLAY AND
SOUTHEASTERN EFFINGHAM COUNTIES...

At 346 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Bible Grove, or
13 miles northeast of Flora, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Law enforcement confirmed tornado. At 3:40 PM, Flora Police 
         Department reported a tornado north of Louisville.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
southwestern Jasper, northern Richland, northeastern Clay and
southeastern Effingham Counties, including the following locations...
Wakefield, Wendelin, and Ingraham.

This also includes Newton Lake State Fish and Wildlife Area.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a
basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3880 8838 3886 8845 3901 8832 3884 8820
TIME...MOT...LOC 2046Z 238DEG 34KT 3885 8837 

TORNADO...OBSERVED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

$$

Erwin

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1218 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread rain will occur across central and southeast Illinois
  today. Amounts of 1 to 2 inches will be common. Isolated
  higher amounts over 3 inches could result in flash flooding.

- There is a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather along
  and south of a Jacksonville to Danville line from 2 PM to 10
 PM today.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 155 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

The 00z high-resolution guidance indicates dual-threats today
consisting of heavy rainfall and a severe weather risk this
afternoon and evening. The primary forecast uncertainty revolves
around the degree of destabilization following this mornings
initial convective activity, and the location of the resulting
outflow boundary/effective warm front. High- resolution models
show a clear signal that the northern portion of the forecast
area will remain overturned and stable. However, near and south
of the I-72 corridor, guidance supports stronger
destabilization.

     SEVERE RISK TODAY...

The RAP and HRRR project MLCAPE values surging over 1000 J/kg
late afternoon south of the warm front. This higher-instability
reservoir will couple with favorable kinematics, as an upper-
level jet streak provides 35 to 45 knots of effective bulk
shear. Updraft helicity (UH) swaths show a distinct clustering
across the southern half of the forecast area after 19z. This
environment favors multi-cell clusters and transient supercells
capable of producing damaging downburst winds and large hail.
Low-level hodographs curve sufficiently near the surface
boundary to support a localized tornado threat, reflected in
SPC's 5% tornado risk. The primary forecast solution favors a
targeted severe threat area focused along and south of a line
from Jacksonville to Lincoln to Danville, peaking between 19z
and 03z, before the instability axis is shunted east into
Indiana.

     HEAVY RAIN TODAY...

Anomalous atmospheric moisture is surging northward into
central Illinois early this morning ahead of an approaching
shortwave. High-resolution guidance shows precipitable water
values climbing into the 2-2.25-inch range, which approaches
climatological maximums for late June. This deep tropical
moisture will interact with a 40-50 kt low-level jet streak,
with its convergent nose aimed at central IL this afternoon. As
a result, thunderstorms will become highly efficient rainfall
producers. The 00z HREF probability-matched mean (PMM) indicates
a widespread swath of 1-3 inches of rain across central and
southeast Illinois, with localized totals exceeding 4 inches
where storms train over the same areas. Given antecedent
saturated soils, this rain will rapidly convert to runoff. The
Weather Prediction Center (WPC) maintains a Moderate Risk (level
3 of 4) in the Excessive Rainfall Outlook (ERO) for today.
Flash flooding is a primary threat, particularly in urban and
low-lying areas.

     NEXT WEEK...

Lingering rain showers remain possible over eastern IL into
Monday morning as the upper- level trough crosses the region.
Cooler, drier air filters in on Monday afternoon on northwest
winds, with highs only in the mid-70s.

Surface high pressure builds over the Midwest on Tuesday,
bringing dry conditions and seasonably mild temperatures with
highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

For the mid-to-late week period, the official forecast relies
closely on NBM guidance, though confidence drops due to notable
model disagreements. The main forecast periods of precip are
associated a frontal passage late Wednesday, and a stronger
shortwave projected over the Midwest late Friday into Saturday.
Ensemble guidance show a general trend toward rising geopotential
heights next weekend, suggesting warming temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Showers and a few thunderstorms are overspreading central
Illinois early this afternoon with additional development
possible behind this initial line. Confidence in details on
coverage/location of late afternoon/evening storms remains low,
thus precludes more than a prob30 mention at this time.
Meanwhile, E/ESE winds currently in place are expected to back
to NE by late this evening as weak low pressure moves across the
region. MVFR and eventually IFR ceilings will accompany the low
passage, with slow improvement expected from the northwest
behind the departing wave Monday.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late tonight for ILZ027>031-036>038-
040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

&&

KEY MESSAGES...25
DISCUSSION...25
AVIATION...Deubelbeiss

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
501 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-221015-
Knox-Stark-Peoria-Marshall-Woodford-Fulton-Tazewell-McLean-Schuyler-
Mason-Logan-De Witt-Piatt-Champaign-Vermilion-Cass-Menard-Scott-
Morgan-Sangamon-Christian-Macon-Moultrie-Douglas-Coles-Edgar-Shelby-
Cumberland-Clark-Effingham-Jasper-Crawford-Clay-Richland-Lawrence-
501 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois, east
central Illinois, southeast Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Heavy rain will develop today, with 1.5 to 2 inches expected in most
areas and locally higher amounts over 3 inches possible by tonight.
This may produce flash flooding in urban and low lying flood prone
areas. Additionally, scattered thunderstorms could become severe
this afternoon and evening, with a risk for locally damaging wind
gusts and possibly a few tornadoes.

Several rivers are in minor to moderate flood today, and additional
rises are expected following heavy rainfall tonight. Rivers expected
to flood include portions of the Illinois, Sangamon, Wabash, Little
Wabash, and Spoon Rivers.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Several rivers will continue in minor to moderate flood for many
days, including portions of the Illinois, Wabash, Little Wabash,
Sangamon, and Spoon Rivers.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed from around 2 to 10 PM.

Expected storm motion is toward the northeast around 50 mph.

37