Severe Thunderstorm Warning 96, NWS Lincoln, IL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
754 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An Enhanced Risk for severe weather exists along and northeast
  of a Canton to Shelbyville line through this evening. The
  primary risks will be damaging wind gusts in excess of 70mph,
  hail larger than 2 inches in diameter, and a few tornadoes

- After record-breaking warmth today, temperatures will plunge
  into the middle to upper 20s by Friday night.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 750 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

*** Mesoscale Discussion ***

A cold front has surged quickly south across central IL this
afternoon/evening, bringing sharply colder air behind it.
(Earlier this evening, WFO ILX observed a temperature decrease
of over 30 degF in one hour). Based on sfc obs and radar
imagery, the sfc front now extends from near Jerseyville, IL,
northeast towards Shelbyville and Charleston, having just
passed each of those locations as of 0045z (745pm CT).

While vertical wind profiles from KLSX and KVWX have shown an
uptick in low-level shear (owing to the onset of the LLJ),
renewed storm development is expected to primarily be focused
north of the front, thus minimizing the tornado potential. Both
the 00z KILX sounding and short- term model guidance depict
MUCAPE values between 750-1000 J/kg, with moderate mid- level
lapse rates of around 7 degC/km. These lapse rates values are
less extreme than those depicted across the region earlier this
afternoon.

A combination of forcing mechanisms (LLJ convergence, post-
frontal low-level FGEN, and impinging weak upper disturbances)
have led to renewed scattered to widespread showers/storms west
of I-55. A few of these cells could strengthen and pose a severe
hail threat, and perhaps an isolated damaging wind threat, over
the next 3-4 hours. Significant severe hail (larger than 2") is
unlikely, and the severe threat should gradually wane into the
overnight hours. The Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect
until 11 PM, but the worst of the threat has passed.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

     Severe Weather This Evening...

19z/2pm surface analysis shows a cold front extending from
southern Lake Michigan southwestward to the Iowa/Missouri state
line. Record-breaking warmth prevails within the warm sector
with current readings in the middle to upper 80s across central
Illinois. Meanwhile north of the front, temperatures have
dropped into the 50s in northern Illinois.

19z mesoanalysis indicates MLCAPEs of 1000-1500J/kg pooling
south of the front: however, 150-200J/kg of MLCIN has thus far
capped any convective development. Visible satellite imagery is
showing a Cu field forming along/north of a Macomb to Pontiac
line...and this will be the area to watch for thunderstorm
initiation over the next 1-3 hours. While CAM timing still
varies slightly, a consistent signal from the HRRR and RRFS
suggests the first cluster of storms forming northeast of Peoria
between 21z/4pm and 22z/5pm...then tracking E/SE just north of
the I-74 corridor through 00z/7pm. Given the pool of high CAPES,
steep mid-level lapse rates, and 0-6km bulk shear of 50-60kt,
the stage will be set for rapid development once the cap is
broken immediately along the approaching boundary. The initial
storm cluster will therefore pose a very large hail risk
(potentially greater than 2 inches in diameter), as well as a
tornado risk if it remains close to the boundary as advertised.

Once the late afternoon storm cluster pushes into Indiana,
additional convection will fire further west along the trailing
cold front this evening. There will be a narrow window between
about 6pm and 10pm when favorable instability/shear profiles
will continue to support all storm hazards before daytime
instability wanes and the severe threat diminishes. It appears
the most favored location for severe this evening will be along
and near the I-72 corridor...before the storms begin to lose
their vigor as they sink southward to the I-70 by midnight or
shortly afterwards.

     Sharply Falling Temperatures...

Once the cold front passes, strong N/NE winds gusting 30-35mph
will bring a much cooler airmass southward into central Illinois
tonight. Low temperatures will bottom out in the lower to middle
30s across much of the KILX CWA, with lower 40s south of I-70.
Friday will start out as a cloudy, breezy, and very chilly
day...before at least partial sunshine returns by afternoon.
Highs will only reach the upper 40s to around 50 degrees. As high
pressure builds into the region, skies will clear and winds will
become light/variable Friday night. Excellent radiational
cooling of the dry airmass will allow overnight lows to plunge
into the middle to upper 20s...which could pose a risk to tender
spring vegetation that has emerged 2-3 weeks early.

     Warmer and Wetter Next Week...

After a brief chill to start the weekend, temperatures will
quickly rebound into the 60s on Sunday...then back into the 80s
by next Monday and Tuesday. The pattern will also become
decidedly more unsettled as a frontal boundary wavers in the
region for several days. While it is still too early to pinpoint
any specific severe weather risk at that time range, the
Colorado State Machine Learning algorithm is highlighting low
probabilities (5-15% chance) for severe across portions of
Illinois Monday through Thursday. The current forecast features
daily rain chances, with the greatest chance (60%) focused on
Thursday. Stay tuned to later forecasts as details become
clearer.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 632 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

The initial clusters of thunderstorms associated with a passing
cold front are currently ongoing from near KBMI/KDEC eastward
to the Indiana border. Have therefore gone with thunder in the
KCMI TAF immediately. Further west, only showers are occurring:
however, all CAM guidance suggests convective development within
the next 1-3 hours. As such, have maintained predominant thunder
at all sites after 01z/02z...with a 2-3 hour window of
potentially severe thunder/hail. Models continue to show the
widespread convection sinking southward later this evening, so
have ended thunder at KPIA by 06z...then further south to the
I-72 terminals by 08z. Once the front passes, winds switch to NE
and gust 30-35kt. The gusty winds will continue through the
night and into Friday morning before gradually decreasing by
Friday afternoon. In addition, low clouds currently poised
upstream across Wisconsin/northern Illinois will spill southward
tonight. HRRR/RAP indicate MVFR ceilings arriving by mid-
evening, then lingering until about midday Friday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 125 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Forecast temperatures on Thursday may exceed March records in
some areas.

               Mar 26 Record              March Record
Charleston....   84 (1907)          89 (3/24/1929 and 3/22/2026)
Decatur.......   83 (1907)          89 (3/24/1929)
Jacksonville..   83 (1950)          91 (3/21/1907)
Lincoln.......   83 (1991)          86 (3/29/1985 and 3/30/1986)
Normal........   83 (2007)          88 (3/21/1907)
Olney.........   85 (1907)          89 (3/24/1910 and 3/24/1929)
Peoria........   82 (1907/1991)     87 (3/21/1907)
Springfield...   81 (1991)          91 (3/21/1907)
Urbana........   81 (1907)          85 (3/21/1907 and 3/24/1910)

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Blowing Dust Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ILZ036-
040>057-061>063.

&&

KEY MESSAGES...Barnes
UPDATE...Erwin
DISCUSSION...Barnes
AVIATION...Barnes
CLIMATE...Geelhart

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
301 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-272015-
Knox-Stark-Peoria-Marshall-Woodford-Fulton-Tazewell-McLean-Schuyler-
Mason-Logan-De Witt-Piatt-Champaign-Vermilion-Cass-Menard-Scott-
Morgan-Sangamon-Christian-Macon-Moultrie-Douglas-Coles-Edgar-Shelby-
Cumberland-Clark-
301 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois, east
central Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected through late evening,
with a weakening trend as they advance south of I-70 with time. The
greatest risk for severe storms is in areas from about Springfield
and Peoria eastward. Very large hail and damaging winds are the main
concerns, though a few tornadoes are also possible through mid
evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

A hard freeze is likely Friday night. Early emerging sensitive
vegetation should be covered for protection.

Scattered thunderstorms are possible Monday night and Tuesday. The
severe weather risk appears low at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed between 4 pm and midnight.

Expected storm motion is toward the east around 50 mph.

ILZ066>068-071>073-272015-
Effingham-Jasper-Crawford-Clay-Richland-Lawrence-
301 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms will begin moving into southeast Illinois later this
evening, continuing past midnight. A few of these may be strong to
severe, though the severe weather threat is expected to diminish
with time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed after 9 pm.

Expected storm motion is toward the east around 50 mph.

Shimon

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
924 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0918 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Shelbyville             39.41N 88.81W
03/26/2026  M60 MPH          Shelby             IL   Public

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report...Summary
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
941 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 3 WNW Towanda           40.58N 88.95W
03/26/2026  M45 MPH          McLean             IL   Mesonet

            Mesonet station FW2710 Towanda.

0441 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     4 S Rankin              40.41N 87.90W
03/26/2026  M50 MPH          Vermilion          IL   Public

0453 PM     Hail             3 N Shirley             40.46N 89.07W
03/26/2026  M1.00 Inch       McLean             IL   NWS Employee

            Station Elevation: 776 ft.

0455 PM     Hail             1 S Bloomington         40.47N 88.99W
03/26/2026  M0.75 Inch       McLean             IL   Public

            Dime size hail from 455 to 5 pm.

0456 PM     Hail             2 SW Bloomington        40.45N 89.01W
03/26/2026  E1.00 Inch       McLean             IL   Public

            Report from mPING: Quarter (1.00 in.).

0458 PM     Hail             1 S Bloomington         40.46N 88.99W
03/26/2026  M0.75 Inch       McLean             IL   Trained Spotter

            Penny size hail along Veterans Parkway and
            south main street in Bloomington.

0500 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg Pekin                   40.57N 89.64W
03/26/2026                   Tazewell           IL   Broadcast Media

            Tree blown down on Washington Street in
            Pekin from non thunderstorm winds.

0506 PM     Hail             2 W Holder              40.46N 88.84W
03/26/2026  M1.00 Inch       McLean             IL   Public

0515 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst Rantoul Airport         40.29N 88.15W
03/26/2026  M49 MPH          Champaign          IL   AWOS

            AWOS station KTIP Rantoul Arpt.

0530 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 4 E Royal               40.19N 87.89W
03/26/2026  M59 MPH          Vermilion          IL   Mesonet

            Mesonet station CW7268 Hope.

0532 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 ESE Henning           40.30N 87.66W
03/26/2026                   Vermilion          IL   Public

            Power poles damaged.

0536 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 NNW Danville          40.17N 87.65W
03/26/2026  M61 MPH          Vermilion          IL   Emergency Mngr

0538 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst Willard Airport         40.03N 88.28W
03/26/2026  M45 MPH          Champaign          IL   ASOS

            ASOS station KCMI Willard Arpt.

0541 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 NNW Danville          40.17N 87.65W
03/26/2026  M55 MPH          Vermilion          IL   Mesonet

            Mesonet station CW9931 Danville.

0545 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Normal                  40.51N 88.99W
03/26/2026                   McLean             IL   Broadcast Media

            Snapped power pole.

0619 PM     Hail             2 W Fisher              40.31N 88.39W
03/26/2026  E1.25 Inch       Champaign          IL   Public

            Report from mPING: Half Dollar (1.25 in.).

0621 PM     Hail             Fisher                  40.32N 88.35W
03/26/2026  M1.75 Inch       Champaign          IL   Broadcast Media

            Golf ball size hail reported in Fisher from
            a viewer.

0621 PM     Hail             1 W Fisher              40.31N 88.36W
03/26/2026  E0.75 Inch       Champaign          IL   Public

            Report from mPING: Dime (0.75 in.).

0622 PM     Hail             2 W Danville            40.14N 87.67W
03/26/2026  M1.75 Inch       Vermilion          IL   Broadcast Media

            Golf ball size hail on west side of Danville
            on Henning road. Photo of hail with ruler.

0622 PM     Hail             2 NNW Danville          40.17N 87.65W
03/26/2026  M1.50 Inch       Vermilion          IL   Public

            Half dollar to ping pong size hail reported
            with photo.

0622 PM     Hail             3 NW Tilton             40.13N 87.70W
03/26/2026  M1.50 Inch       Vermilion          IL   Public

0622 PM     Hail             4 E Fisher              40.32N 88.27W
03/26/2026  M1.00 Inch       Champaign          IL   Broadcast Media

            Quarter size hail in Dewey IL.

0623 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 WSW Decatur Airport   39.83N 88.87W
03/26/2026  M47 MPH          Macon              IL   ASOS

            ASOS station KDEC Decatur Arpt.

0625 PM     Hail             2 N Danville            40.17N 87.63W
03/26/2026  M1.50 Inch       Vermilion          IL   Broadcast Media

            Ping pong size hail from a viewer on north
            side of Danville by the lake.

0830 PM     Hail             Macon                   39.71N 89.00W
03/26/2026  M1.00 Inch       Macon              IL   Emergency Mngr

            Quarter size hail reported.

0832 PM     Hail             Moweaqua                39.63N 89.02W
03/26/2026  M1.50 Inch       Shelby             IL   Broadcast Media

            Ping pong size hail with photo.

0845 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Taylorville Airport     39.53N 89.33W
03/26/2026  M54 MPH          Christian          IL   AWOS

0849 PM     Hail             1 E Bethany             39.65N 88.72W
03/26/2026  E1.00 Inch       Moultrie           IL   Public

            Report from mPING: Quarter (1.00 in.).

0854 PM     Hail             Sullivan                39.60N 88.61W
03/26/2026  M1.75 Inch       Moultrie           IL   Broadcast Media

            Golf ball size hail reported in Sullivan.

0858 PM     Hail             Sullivan                39.60N 88.60W
03/26/2026  M1.75 Inch       Moultrie           IL   Public

0900 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 W Pana                39.39N 89.12W
03/26/2026                   Christian          IL   Trained Spotter

            Large pine tree branches blown down on
            playground set on west side of Pana.

0900 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Pana                    39.39N 89.08W
03/26/2026  M60 MPH          Christian          IL   Trained Spotter

            Estimated 50 to 60 mph wind gusts. Brief
            power outages.

0918 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Shelbyville             39.41N 88.81W
03/26/2026  M60 MPH          Shelby             IL   Public

&&