Severe Thunderstorm Warning 94, NWS Lincoln, IL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
754 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An Enhanced Risk for severe weather exists along and northeast
  of a Canton to Shelbyville line through this evening. The
  primary risks will be damaging wind gusts in excess of 70mph,
  hail larger than 2 inches in diameter, and a few tornadoes

- After record-breaking warmth today, temperatures will plunge
  into the middle to upper 20s by Friday night.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 750 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

*** Mesoscale Discussion ***

A cold front has surged quickly south across central IL this
afternoon/evening, bringing sharply colder air behind it.
(Earlier this evening, WFO ILX observed a temperature decrease
of over 30 degF in one hour). Based on sfc obs and radar
imagery, the sfc front now extends from near Jerseyville, IL,
northeast towards Shelbyville and Charleston, having just
passed each of those locations as of 0045z (745pm CT).

While vertical wind profiles from KLSX and KVWX have shown an
uptick in low-level shear (owing to the onset of the LLJ),
renewed storm development is expected to primarily be focused
north of the front, thus minimizing the tornado potential. Both
the 00z KILX sounding and short- term model guidance depict
MUCAPE values between 750-1000 J/kg, with moderate mid- level
lapse rates of around 7 degC/km. These lapse rates values are
less extreme than those depicted across the region earlier this
afternoon.

A combination of forcing mechanisms (LLJ convergence, post-
frontal low-level FGEN, and impinging weak upper disturbances)
have led to renewed scattered to widespread showers/storms west
of I-55. A few of these cells could strengthen and pose a severe
hail threat, and perhaps an isolated damaging wind threat, over
the next 3-4 hours. Significant severe hail (larger than 2") is
unlikely, and the severe threat should gradually wane into the
overnight hours. The Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect
until 11 PM, but the worst of the threat has passed.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

     Severe Weather This Evening...

19z/2pm surface analysis shows a cold front extending from
southern Lake Michigan southwestward to the Iowa/Missouri state
line. Record-breaking warmth prevails within the warm sector
with current readings in the middle to upper 80s across central
Illinois. Meanwhile north of the front, temperatures have
dropped into the 50s in northern Illinois.

19z mesoanalysis indicates MLCAPEs of 1000-1500J/kg pooling
south of the front: however, 150-200J/kg of MLCIN has thus far
capped any convective development. Visible satellite imagery is
showing a Cu field forming along/north of a Macomb to Pontiac
line...and this will be the area to watch for thunderstorm
initiation over the next 1-3 hours. While CAM timing still
varies slightly, a consistent signal from the HRRR and RRFS
suggests the first cluster of storms forming northeast of Peoria
between 21z/4pm and 22z/5pm...then tracking E/SE just north of
the I-74 corridor through 00z/7pm. Given the pool of high CAPES,
steep mid-level lapse rates, and 0-6km bulk shear of 50-60kt,
the stage will be set for rapid development once the cap is
broken immediately along the approaching boundary. The initial
storm cluster will therefore pose a very large hail risk
(potentially greater than 2 inches in diameter), as well as a
tornado risk if it remains close to the boundary as advertised.

Once the late afternoon storm cluster pushes into Indiana,
additional convection will fire further west along the trailing
cold front this evening. There will be a narrow window between
about 6pm and 10pm when favorable instability/shear profiles
will continue to support all storm hazards before daytime
instability wanes and the severe threat diminishes. It appears
the most favored location for severe this evening will be along
and near the I-72 corridor...before the storms begin to lose
their vigor as they sink southward to the I-70 by midnight or
shortly afterwards.

     Sharply Falling Temperatures...

Once the cold front passes, strong N/NE winds gusting 30-35mph
will bring a much cooler airmass southward into central Illinois
tonight. Low temperatures will bottom out in the lower to middle
30s across much of the KILX CWA, with lower 40s south of I-70.
Friday will start out as a cloudy, breezy, and very chilly
day...before at least partial sunshine returns by afternoon.
Highs will only reach the upper 40s to around 50 degrees. As high
pressure builds into the region, skies will clear and winds will
become light/variable Friday night. Excellent radiational
cooling of the dry airmass will allow overnight lows to plunge
into the middle to upper 20s...which could pose a risk to tender
spring vegetation that has emerged 2-3 weeks early.

     Warmer and Wetter Next Week...

After a brief chill to start the weekend, temperatures will
quickly rebound into the 60s on Sunday...then back into the 80s
by next Monday and Tuesday. The pattern will also become
decidedly more unsettled as a frontal boundary wavers in the
region for several days. While it is still too early to pinpoint
any specific severe weather risk at that time range, the
Colorado State Machine Learning algorithm is highlighting low
probabilities (5-15% chance) for severe across portions of
Illinois Monday through Thursday. The current forecast features
daily rain chances, with the greatest chance (60%) focused on
Thursday. Stay tuned to later forecasts as details become
clearer.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 632 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

The initial clusters of thunderstorms associated with a passing
cold front are currently ongoing from near KBMI/KDEC eastward
to the Indiana border. Have therefore gone with thunder in the
KCMI TAF immediately. Further west, only showers are occurring:
however, all CAM guidance suggests convective development within
the next 1-3 hours. As such, have maintained predominant thunder
at all sites after 01z/02z...with a 2-3 hour window of
potentially severe thunder/hail. Models continue to show the
widespread convection sinking southward later this evening, so
have ended thunder at KPIA by 06z...then further south to the
I-72 terminals by 08z. Once the front passes, winds switch to NE
and gust 30-35kt. The gusty winds will continue through the
night and into Friday morning before gradually decreasing by
Friday afternoon. In addition, low clouds currently poised
upstream across Wisconsin/northern Illinois will spill southward
tonight. HRRR/RAP indicate MVFR ceilings arriving by mid-
evening, then lingering until about midday Friday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 125 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Forecast temperatures on Thursday may exceed March records in
some areas.

               Mar 26 Record              March Record
Charleston....   84 (1907)          89 (3/24/1929 and 3/22/2026)
Decatur.......   83 (1907)          89 (3/24/1929)
Jacksonville..   83 (1950)          91 (3/21/1907)
Lincoln.......   83 (1991)          86 (3/29/1985 and 3/30/1986)
Normal........   83 (2007)          88 (3/21/1907)
Olney.........   85 (1907)          89 (3/24/1910 and 3/24/1929)
Peoria........   82 (1907/1991)     87 (3/21/1907)
Springfield...   81 (1991)          91 (3/21/1907)
Urbana........   81 (1907)          85 (3/21/1907 and 3/24/1910)

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Blowing Dust Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ILZ036-
040>057-061>063.

&&

KEY MESSAGES...Barnes
UPDATE...Erwin
DISCUSSION...Barnes
AVIATION...Barnes
CLIMATE...Geelhart

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
301 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-272015-
Knox-Stark-Peoria-Marshall-Woodford-Fulton-Tazewell-McLean-Schuyler-
Mason-Logan-De Witt-Piatt-Champaign-Vermilion-Cass-Menard-Scott-
Morgan-Sangamon-Christian-Macon-Moultrie-Douglas-Coles-Edgar-Shelby-
Cumberland-Clark-
301 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois, east
central Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected through late evening,
with a weakening trend as they advance south of I-70 with time. The
greatest risk for severe storms is in areas from about Springfield
and Peoria eastward. Very large hail and damaging winds are the main
concerns, though a few tornadoes are also possible through mid
evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

A hard freeze is likely Friday night. Early emerging sensitive
vegetation should be covered for protection.

Scattered thunderstorms are possible Monday night and Tuesday. The
severe weather risk appears low at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed between 4 pm and midnight.

Expected storm motion is toward the east around 50 mph.

ILZ066>068-071>073-272015-
Effingham-Jasper-Crawford-Clay-Richland-Lawrence-
301 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms will begin moving into southeast Illinois later this
evening, continuing past midnight. A few of these may be strong to
severe, though the severe weather threat is expected to diminish
with time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed after 9 pm.

Expected storm motion is toward the east around 50 mph.

Shimon

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