Severe Thunderstorm Warning 215, NWS Lincoln, IL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
241 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A heavy rain threat will persist through this evening,
  continuing into the overnight hours south of I-72/Danville.
  Rates of two inches per hour or greater may lead to localized
  flash flooding.

- The combination of heat and humidity will lead to heat index
  values peaking between 95 and 105 degrees on Tuesday and
  Wednesday. Those sensitive to heat should take extra
  precautions.

- The threat for severe weather will increase through this
  week, peaking in the late Wednesday night-Thursday time frame.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Near record precipitable water values of just over 2" along with
an approaching upper low are driving a heavy rain threat today,
with multiple reports of 2"/hour rain rates. East central IL
will see the greatest threat for heavy rain over the next few
hours. An MCV moving out of southeast MO may lead to
thunderstorm development in portions of southeastern IL that
have yet to see much activity. Some will see a brief break this
afternoon, but with more showers/storms capable of heavy
rainfall moving in from the west we anticipate the flood threat
to persist through at least this evening. A few CAMs depict a
convective complex with an associated MCV moving across MO and
weakening during the overnight hours. The southern portion of
the flood watch has been extended to 7 am to account for this
possibility, as well as to account for the persistent near
record PW values.

The combination of heat and humidity then become a concern for
Tuesday and Wednesday. Heat index values in the mid 90s up to
a few degrees over 100 are anticipated. Particularly following
the extended period of dry and cool conditions experienced
toward the end of May/in the first week of June, this period of
heat and humidity could have more impact than usual. On Tuesday,
a weak moisture boundary may trigger isolated thunderstorms but
little relief from the heat will probably result. Instability is
quite strong, but with shear limited the severe threat should be
limited as well. The main concern would be isolated strong to
severe wind gusts.

The severe weather threat is forecast to increase later in the
week for central and southeast Illinois. Late Wednesday night
into Thursday morning, severe storms coming out of the upper
Mississippi Valley are forecast to weaken as they move toward
central Illinois. The greater threat is anticipated on Thursday
afternoon/evening, with SPC delineating a 30% contour
approximately near and west of I-55.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Primary band of heavy rain and thunderstorms is now working its
way through KBMI-KMTO, and should reach KCMI within the hour.
Threats are lightning, rain rates in excess of 1" per hour with
IFR or lower visibilities, and some gusty south winds. Another
round of scattered thunderstorms now in western Illinois is
anticipated to affect the TAF sites during the mid to late
afternoon hours. MVFR to perhaps IFR ceilings are forecast to
develop overnight, primarily east of a line from KPIA-KSPI.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for ILZ027>031-036>038-
041>046-053-055-057.
Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for ILZ040-047>052-054-056-
061>063-066>068-071>073.

&&

KEY MESSAGES...AAT
DISCUSSION...AAT
AVIATION...AAT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
226 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061-091930-
Knox-Stark-Peoria-Marshall-Woodford-Fulton-Tazewell-McLean-Schuyler-
Mason-Logan-De Witt-Piatt-Champaign-Vermilion-Cass-Menard-Scott-
Morgan-Sangamon-Christian-Macon-Moultrie-Douglas-Coles-Edgar-Shelby-
226 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois, east
central Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Periods of thunderstorms are expected into this evening, though a
few may linger past midnight. While the severe weather threat is
low, rainfall rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour may cause localized
flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected Tuesday evening, and a few may
be strong or briefly severe. However, the better chances for severe
weather will be Wednesday and especially on Thursday. There also
remains a concern for localized flooding.

Hot weather will develop on Tuesday, and Wednesday. Heat index
values over 95-100 degrees are expected on Tuesday west of I-55, and
over all of central and southeast Illinois on Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

ILZ062-063-066>068-071>073-091930-
Cumberland-Clark-Effingham-Jasper-Crawford-Clay-Richland-Lawrence-
226 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Illinois and
southeast Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Periods of thunderstorms are expected into this evening, though a
few may linger past midnight. A few of these may briefly be severe,
with damaging winds the primary concern. However, a few funnel clouds
are also possible. Rainfall rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour may
cause localized flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected Tuesday through Wednesday, and
a few may be strong or briefly severe. However, the better chances
for severe weather will be Thursday. There also remains a concern
for localized flooding.

Heat index values of 95-100 degrees are expected on Tuesday and
Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

Copple

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
413 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0413 PM     Flood            Canton                  40.56N 90.04W
06/08/2026                   Fulton             IL   Emergency Mngr

            Several roads inundated with standing water.

&&

RAC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
425 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0421 PM     Rain             Neoga                   39.32N 88.45W
06/08/2026  M1.55 Inch       Cumberland         IL   Fire Dept/Rescue

0421 PM     Rain             5 W Toledo              39.27N 88.34W
06/08/2026  M2.38 Inch       Cumberland         IL   Amateur Radio

0423 PM     Rain             Toledo                  39.27N 88.24W
06/08/2026  M2.24 Inch       Cumberland         IL   Amateur Radio

0424 PM     Rain             Greenup                 39.25N 88.17W
06/08/2026  M1.83 Inch       Cumberland         IL   Amateur Radio

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
439 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0402 PM     Rain             Coles County Airport    39.47N 88.27W
06/08/2026  M3.84 Inch       Coles              IL   ASOS

            ASOS station KMTO Coles Co. Mem AP.

&&

RAC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
446 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0423 PM     Flash Flood      Dieterich               39.06N 88.38W
06/08/2026                   Effingham          IL   Broadcast Media

            Social media photo reveals feet-deep water
            across lawns, seeping into the basements of
            several homes in Dieterich.

&&

JRB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
449 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0432 PM     Rain             Lewistown               40.39N 90.16W
06/08/2026  M1.40 Inch       Fulton             IL   Emergency Mngr

            Storm total so far.

&&

JRB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
503 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0453 PM     Rain             1 WNW Saint David       40.50N 90.08W
06/08/2026  M3.10 Inch       Fulton             IL   Emergency Mngr

            24 hour total.

&&

JRB