Flash Flood Warning 14, NWS Lincoln, IL

261 
WGUS73 KILX 081904
FFSILX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
204 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

ILC029-049-079-081914-
/O.CAN.KILX.FF.W.0014.000000T0000Z-260608T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Coles IL-Effingham IL-Jasper IL-
204 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR SOUTHEASTERN COLES, 
SOUTHEASTERN EFFINGHAM AND NORTHWESTERN JASPER COUNTIES...

A new Flash Flood Warning has been issued to replace this warning.

A Flood Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT Tuesday for 
portions of central, east central, and west central Illinois.

A Flood Watch remains in effect until 700 AM CDT Tuesday for 
portions of central, east central, southeast, and west central 
Illinois.

&&

LAT...LON 3898 8856 3917 8843 3917 8825 3937 8825
      3937 8830 3960 8816 3959 8796 3951 8796
      3948 8798 3948 8801 3943 8801 3938 8805
      3938 8815 3937 8821 3917 8823 3917 8819
      3896 8834 3896 8853

$$

Knutsvig

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1246 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Flood Watch is posted today and evening for central and
  southeast IL. A few waves of showers and thunderstorms
  expected today and could produce locally heavy rain of 2 to 3
  inches per hour rates.

- High heat and humidity will build across the region Tuesday
  through Thursday, driving afternoon heat index values into the
  upper 90s and lower 100s. More comfortable temperatures and
  humidity levels are expected by early next week.

- There is a Slight to Enhanced risk of severe storms from the
  IL river nw Wed night. There is a 15-30% risk of severe storms
  over central and southeast IL Thu and Thu evening as cold
  front moves through Thu night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Issued a Flood Watch for central and southeast IL today and
evening. Some bands of showers and thunderstorms to pivot north
and ne across the areas today, with best chances of convection
shifting into east central and southeast IL this evening.
Unseasonably high precipitatable water values will be 2-2.25
inches at times today and evening over the CWA. Thunderstorms
could produce locally heavy rains of 2-3 inches per hour rates
and to be more widespread than the past few days as mid level
trof moves into IL this afternoon. WPC Day1 ERO has slight risk
of excessive rainfall across CWA today/evening with southeast
IL (Terre Haute to Shelbyville south) having a 25% risk of
rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance within 25 miles of a
point.

A mid level trough over western MO/IA early this morning will
move northeastward today across the mid Mississippi Valley.
Deep tropical moisture continues streaming over IL ahead of
approaching trof with PW of 2-2.25 inches into this evening.
Weak steering flow aloft to also support heavy rain threat. Will
Moderate instability is forecast into southern Illinois this
afternoon along with enough wind shear to support marginal risk
of severe storms from mid afternoon into early evening in
southeast IL. Main severe storm threat is damaging wind gusts
while also a 2% risk of tornadoes from highway 50 south. The RAP
13 Layer Non-supercell tornado parameter has pockets of 1-3
over central IL from mid day into the afternoon. So we will need
to be alert for possibility of a few brief funnels/tornadoes in
tropical air mass. Highs today of 80-85F, warmest near
Lawrenceville with muggy dewpoints in the low to mid 70s.

Convection chances to become more widely scattered from west to
east during tonight as mid level trof shifts east into Indiana
tonight and instability wanes. Moderate to heavy rains still
possible over east central and especially southeast IL during
early to mid evening. Lows overnight in the upper 60s to around
70F.

Mid level trof continues moving east over the Ohio river valley
on Tue with upper level ridging into IL as 500 mb heights rise
to 588-590 decameters by Tue afternoon over CWA. SPC Day2 has
marginal risk of severe storms over CWA Tue afternoon/early Tue
evening as an unstable air mass lingers over the area with very
warm temperatures in upper 80s to around 90F and moist
dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. Large hail and damaging wind
gusts will exists with any storms that can become sustained in
that thermodynamic environment from mid Tue afternoon into early
Tue evening until sunset.

Mid/upper level ridge over IL on Wed and this to keep most of
area dry much of the day Wed along with hot and humid
conditions. Highs Wed in the lower 90s and dewpoints in the low
to mid 70s to give afternoon heat indices in upper 90s and lower
100s (highest over the IL/MS river valleys). Will see breezier
sw winds on Wed with gusts 20-30 mph especially Wed afternoon
due to tightening pressure gradient.

Per SPC Day3 Outlook for Wed night, they have a slight risk of
severe storms from the IL river nw and enhanced risk over nw
parts of Knox and Stark counties. (Also have a Level 1
intensity of severe nw of the IL river). Here is SPC's
discussion on this severe threat for Day 3 (Wed afternoon/Wed
night)...A very moist boundary layer, characterized by boundary
layer dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s is forecast ahead of
a cold front, which coupled with steep lapse rates, will
contribute to moderate to strong instability Wed afternoon.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop over IA and the lower MO
Valley by mid to late Wed afternoon. The strongest deep layer
shear is forecast across the upper MS Valley into upper Midwest,
with decreasing bulk shear magnitudes with southward extent
being offset by stronger instability. The CAPE/shear parameter
space will favor organized storm modes including supercells and
bowing structures. Large to very large hail will likely be the
initial hazard, with the threat for damaging winds and tornadoes
increasing as storms move into northwest IL, where stronger low
level shear is forecast.

SPC Day4 Outlook has 15-30% risk of severe storms over CWA on
Thu especially Thu aftn/evening. The highest risk is from
Champaign to Litchfield northwest. We will likely be in a
severe risk on Thursday (especially Thu afternoon/evening) as
line of storms pushes se over central and southeast IL into a
very unstable air mass with stronger wind shear present due to
50-70 kt mid level jet streak. Per SPC Day4 discussion...There
is some model signal that a corridor of enhanced tornado
potential could develop along and south of the surface low track
from eastern IA and northern IL. That potential scenario will
be dictated by the location of the effective surface
boundary. High heat and humidity ahead of the storms especially
se half of CWA where highs around 90F to lower 90s and
afternoon heat indices peaking in the upper 90s to near 100F
before the storms move in. Precipitatable water values remain
high on Thu so heavy rains are a threat especially if training
occurs. WPC Day5 ERO has marginal risk of excessive rainfall
across IL on Thu/Thu night.

Quieter weather expected on Friday behind the cold front with
just slight chance of convection southeast of I-70 Fri morning,
with better chances of convection shifting se of CWA. The ECMWF,
GEM and GFS models keep much of area dry Fri through Saturday
though NBM and WPC have 20-40% pops Fri night and Saturday.
Still fairly warm Fri/Sat with highs in the mid to upper 80s and
a bit sticky with dewpoints in the 60s both days. Another cold
front to push into central/se IL around Sunday and to bring a
chance of showers and thunderstorms Sat night and Sunday,
followed by cooler and less humid air early next week (highs
upper 70s/lower 80s Sun/Mon June 14-15).

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 8-14 Day outlook for June
15-21st has a 35-45% chance of below normal temperatures over IL
with 35-40% chance of above normal precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Primary band of heavy rain and thunderstorms is now working its
way through KBMI-KMTO, and should reach KCMI within the hour.
Threats are lightning, rain rates in excess of 1" per hour with
IFR or lower visibilities, and some gusty south winds. Another
round of scattered thunderstorms now in western Illinois is
anticipated to affect the TAF sites during the mid to late
afternoon hours. MVFR to perhaps IFR ceilings are forecast to
develop overnight, primarily east of a line from KPIA-KSPI.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late tonight for ILZ027>031-036>038-
040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

&&

KEY MESSAGES...07
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...AAT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
523 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061-091100-
Knox-Stark-Peoria-Marshall-Woodford-Fulton-Tazewell-McLean-Schuyler-
Mason-Logan-De Witt-Piatt-Champaign-Vermilion-Cass-Menard-Scott-
Morgan-Sangamon-Christian-Macon-Moultrie-Douglas-Coles-Edgar-Shelby-
523 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois, east
central Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Periods of thunderstorms are expected into this evening, though a few
may linger past midnight. While the severe weather threat is low,
rainfall rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour may cause localized flash
flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected Tuesday evening, and a few may
be strong or briefly severe. However, the better chances for severe
weather will be Wednesday and especially on Thursday. There also
remains a concern for localized flooding.

Hot weather will develop on Tuesday, and peak on Wednesday. Heat
index values over 100 degrees are expected on Tuesday west of I-55,
and over all of central and southeast Illinois on Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight. However,
rainfall measurements would be greatly appreciated.

ILZ062-063-066>068-071>073-091100-
Cumberland-Clark-Effingham-Jasper-Crawford-Clay-Richland-Lawrence-
523 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Periods of thunderstorms are expected into this evening, though a few
may linger past midnight. A few of these may briefly be severe, with
damaging winds the primary concern. However, a few funnel clouds are
also possible. Rainfall rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour may cause
localized flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected Tuesday through Wednesday, and
a few may be strong or briefly severe. However, the better chances
for severe weather will be Thursday. There also remains a concern
for localized flooding.

Heat index values over 100 degrees are expected on Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed through this evening. Rainfall
measurements would also be greatly appreciated.

Geelhart

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
111 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

ILZ045-046-055>057-062-063-081845-
Douglas-Coles-Vermilion-Clark-Champaign-Edgar-Cumberland-
111 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT COLES...WESTERN EDGAR...
NORTHWESTERN CLARK...SOUTHWESTERN VERMILION...NORTH CENTRAL
CUMBERLAND...SOUTHEASTERN CHAMPAIGN AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES THROUGH 145
PM CDT...

At 111 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Villa Grove to near Janesville. Movement was
northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Charleston, Mattoon, Tuscola, Arcola, St. Joseph, Tolono, Villa
Grove, Philo, Sidney, Homer, Oakland, Newman, Ogden, Kansas, Ashmore,
Fairmount, Sidell, Westfield, Pesotum, and Fithian.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 57 between mile markers 186 and 223.
 Interstate 74 between mile markers 196 and 205.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4022 8779 3946 8781 3927 8835 3991 8840
TIME...MOT...LOC 1811Z 231DEG 22KT 3985 8819 3942 8820

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Knutsvig

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
114 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0113 PM     Rain             1 SSW Allenville        39.54N 88.54W
06/08/2026  M2.85 Inch       Moultrie           IL   Public

            Rainfall report in the last 1 hr and 40
            mins. Rain continues to fall at the time of
            the report.

&&

RAC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
130 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0121 PM     Flood            1 NE Mattoon            39.48N 88.36W
06/08/2026                   Coles              IL   Emergency Mngr

            6th Ave and Charleston Ave being heavily
            flooded.

0126 PM     Flood            1 SW Mattoon            39.47N 88.38W
06/08/2026                   Coles              IL   Emergency Mngr

            Lakeland Blvd has water across the roads and
            is impassable. Water is coming up out of the
            manhole covers and out of the drainage
            system.

0126 PM     Flood            1 W Mattoon             39.48N 88.38W
06/08/2026                   Coles              IL   Emergency Mngr

            Marshall Ave has water across the roads and
            is impassable. Water is coming up out of the
            manhole covers and out of the drainage
            system.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
144 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

ILZ045-046-055>057-063-081915-
Douglas-Coles-Vermilion-Clark-Champaign-Edgar-
144 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT EASTERN COLES...EDGAR...
NORTHWESTERN CLARK...SOUTHWESTERN VERMILION...SOUTHEASTERN CHAMPAIGN
AND EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTIES THROUGH 215 PM CDT...

At 144 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Homer to near Allerton to near Ashmore.
Movement was northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Paris, St. Joseph, Georgetown, Catlin, Oakwood, Chrisman, Sidney,
Homer, Ridge Farm, Oakland, Newman, Ogden, Kansas, Ashmore,
Fairmount, Sidell, Westfield, Fithian, Hume, and Broadlands.

This includes Interstate 74 between mile markers 192 and 212.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4033 8773 3999 8764 3952 8771 3943 8809
      4009 8811
TIME...MOT...LOC 1844Z 241DEG 18KT 4003 8799 3987 8791 3951 8798

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Knutsvig

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
148 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0144 PM     Flood            Mattoon                 39.48N 88.36W
06/08/2026                   Coles              IL   Broadcast Media

            Video of water across the roads and reaching
            over the curbs onto the sidewalks.

0144 PM     Flood            1 ENE Mattoon           39.48N 88.36W
06/08/2026                   Coles              IL   Broadcast Media

            Image of water halfway up the tires of a
            sedan driving down 5th Street and Charleston
            Ave.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
152 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0148 PM     Flood            1 NNW Tuscola           39.81N 88.29W
06/08/2026                   Douglas            IL   Broadcast Media

            Several yards and the road has become a
            small pond from the heavy rain.

&&