River Flood Warning 37, NWS Lincoln, IL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
618 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is flash flooding ongoing across portions of central
  Illinois this morning, where thunderstorms track over areas
  that have already seen 4-6 inches of rain since Thursday.
  Areas north of a Havana to Bloomington line are most at risk.

- Storms have the potential to produce damaging winds today and
  tomorrow. SPC has a marginal (level 1 of 5) risk of severe
  weather for the weekend.

- The heat and humidity remain a concern for the weekend, with
  the hottest conditions in the southern half of the state.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Tonight, storms are moving across central IL. There is a low risk
(but non-zero) for damaging winds within these storms, but the main
concern is the flash flooding risk. WPC has areas near and north of
I-72 in a moderate risk (level 3 of 4) for excessive rainfall for
the overnight hours. The 00z sounding shows the environment having
PWATs of 2.2-2.4 inches. Over the last few days, this area has
gotten 3-6 inches of rain, with some locally higher amounts. The
storms passing through tonight are expected to drop another 2-5
inches with the LPMM suggesting some localized pockets of up to 10
inches. Flash flood guidance seems a bit generous (too high). If the
pockets of higher rain set up over where the ground is already
extremely saturated, flash flooding is likely.

For the remainder of the day after this morning round of convection
exits about 15-16z, there is a marginal risk for severe weather for
additional activity that will move through. It will be very similar
to what has happened over the last few days. The next round of MCS
activity will move into central IL by late evening and will continue
into the overnight hours. The main concern will be damaging winds
and the heavy rain potential.

There is another marginal risk for severe weather again tomorrow for
areas south of a Schuyler to McLean County line with a similar
environment in place as previous days. The forecast will continue to
evolve as we get newer runs of the models.

Temperatures remain hot and humid. The heat advisory for south of I-
70 is valid through Sunday. Heat indices of 100-110 degrees are
forecast through Sunday, but how far north these heat indices get
will depend solely on the convection location. Like yesterday for
example, the convection lingered further south longer than forecast,
so heat indices struggled to hit triple digits.

Next week may bring us a brief break in the active weather and the
heat briefly. A high pressure area will set up over the Upper
Mississippi Valley / Great Lakes region by Monday, behind a cold
front that will move through central IL during the day. Temperatures
starting Monday into much of the next week will be mainly in the
upper 70s to 80s for highs and 60s to low 70s for lows.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 618 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Thunderstorms are moving across central Illinois and are expected
to continue into mid morning before exiting east of the area.
MVFR/VFR ceilings currently in place. Ceilings may bounce
around if a stronger shower/storm moves through. Everyone should
be VFR by early afternoon. Winds will become more southwesterly
as the day goes on. Another round of convection is expected
overnight, but timing and location are uncertain as of the 12z
TAF period.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT this morning for ILZ027>031-
036>038-040-041-043>046-055-057.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for ILZ066>068-071>073.

&&

KEY MESSAGES...Copple
DISCUSSION...Copple
AVIATION...Copple

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
300 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-151100-
Knox-Stark-Peoria-Marshall-Woodford-Fulton-Tazewell-McLean-Schuyler-
Mason-Logan-De Witt-Piatt-Champaign-Vermilion-Cass-Menard-Scott-
Morgan-Sangamon-Christian-Macon-Moultrie-Douglas-Coles-Edgar-Shelby-
Cumberland-Clark-Effingham-Jasper-Crawford-Clay-Richland-Lawrence-
300 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois, east
central Illinois, southeast Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Widespread thunderstorm activity is likely tonight, mainly north of
I-72. Locally strong to severe storms and flash flooding are
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hot and humid conditions will peak over the area this weekend. Peak
afternoon heat indices will range from 103 to 112 Saturday, and 100
to 105 Sunday.

Daily chances for thunderstorms exist through the weekend, mainly
north of I-70 for Saturday. Some of these storms could be severe and
produce heavy rain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed after midnight.

37

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0937 AM     Flash Flood      1 NW Muncie             40.12N 87.85W
08/15/2026                   Vermilion          IL   Law Enforcement

            I-74 has water across the road between exits
            200 and 206. Eastbound I-74 traffic is being
            diverted to US Rt 150 at exit 200 and
            westbound I-74 traffic is being diverted to
            US Rt 150 at exit 210.

&&

Shimon

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1002 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0649 AM     Rain             Bryant                  40.47N 90.09W
08/15/2026  M7.87 Inch       Fulton             IL   Public

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report...Summary
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1005 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0135 AM     Flash Flood      1 W Normal              40.51N 89.00W
08/15/2026                   McLean             IL   Public

            Adelaide and Bryan streets in Bloomington
            are impassible and underwater, relayed by
            broadcast media from viewer.

0135 AM     Flash Flood      Bloomington             40.48N 88.99W
08/15/2026                   McLean             IL   Public

            Several flooded roads reported on Douglas
            Street and viaducts underwater, relayed by
            broadcast media from viewer.

0144 AM     Flash Flood      Tremont                 40.53N 89.49W
08/15/2026                   Tazewell           IL   Public

            6 inches of water flowing over E Pearl
            Street.

0209 AM     Flash Flood      3 WNW Mackinaw          40.56N 89.40W
08/15/2026                   Tazewell           IL   Public

            Allentown Road about a mile west of
            Allentown is flooded over.

0224 AM     Flash Flood      2 ESE Bloomington       40.47N 88.96W
08/15/2026                   McLean             IL   911 Call Center

            Vehicle stalled in flood waters, road is
            impassable at Oakland Ave/Four Seasons Rd
            and Prospect Rd / Grandview Dr.

0244 AM     Flash Flood      1 ENE Bloomington       40.49N 88.97W
08/15/2026                   McLean             IL   911 Call Center

            Vehicle stalled in floodwater, road is
            impassable.

0252 AM     Flash Flood      Minier                  40.43N 89.31W
08/15/2026                   Tazewell           IL   Broadcast Media

            Water entering basement egress window at a
            home in Minier.

0318 AM     Flash Flood      Fisher                  40.32N 88.35W
08/15/2026                   Champaign          IL   Broadcast Media

            Reports of basements flooding in Fisher.

0446 AM     Rain             1 S Danville            40.13N 87.63W
08/15/2026  M1.50 Inch       Vermilion          IL   Emergency Mngr

            1.50 inches of rainfall measured in last
            30-40 minutes in Danville.

0506 AM     Rain             Brocton                 39.72N 87.93W
08/15/2026  M4.10 Inch       Edgar              IL   Trained Spotter

            Total rainfall from overnight storms, rain
            continuing at time of report.

0519 AM     Flash Flood      Fisher                  40.32N 88.35W
08/15/2026                   Champaign          IL   Broadcast Media

            Street flooding with standing water on
            Sangamon St and 1st Street in Fisher.

0522 AM     Rain             Fisher                  40.32N 88.35W
08/15/2026  M6.50 Inch       Champaign          IL   Trained Spotter

            Total rainfall since approximately 10pm with
            rain continuing at time of report.

0530 AM     Rain             Knoxville               40.91N 90.29W
08/15/2026  M1.25 Inch       Knox               IL   Trained Spotter

            Rainfall total since midnight with rain
            continuing at time of report.

0536 AM     Flash Flood      Rantoul                 40.31N 88.16W
08/15/2026                   Champaign          IL   Broadcast Media

            Route 136 viaduct in Rantoul is full of
            water and the road is closed.

0545 AM     Flash Flood      Rantoul                 40.30N 88.16W
08/15/2026                   Champaign          IL   Broadcast Media

            Many neighborhood roads are flooded over
            curbs across Rantoul.

0609 AM     Flash Flood      2 NNE Urbana            40.14N 88.19W
08/15/2026                   Champaign          IL   Public

            4 of standing water in their yard reported
            by viewer relayed by broadcast media.

0610 AM     Flash Flood      Bloomington             40.48N 89.00W
08/15/2026                   McLean             IL   911 Call Center

            Most roadways being reported with standing
            water.

0614 AM     Rain             2 SE Collison           40.21N 87.78W
08/15/2026  M3.25 Inch       Vermilion          IL   Cocorahs

            Rainfall total with additional rain falling
            at time of ob.

0649 AM     Rain             Bryant                  40.47N 90.09W
08/15/2026  M7.87 Inch       Fulton             IL   Public

0700 AM     Rain             Roanoke                 40.80N 89.19W
08/15/2026  M1.10 Inch       Woodford           IL   CO-OP Observer

            24 hour rainfall report.

0700 AM     Rain             4 NNW Hopedale          40.47N 89.45W
08/15/2026  M5.75 Inch       Tazewell           IL   NWS Employee

            Rainfall total since approximately 11pm with
            more rain falling at time of report.

0700 AM     Rain             2 NNW Homer             40.06N 87.96W
08/15/2026  M1.10 Inch       Champaign          IL   Trained Spotter

            24-hour rainfall at 7:00 a.m. near Homer 2.0
            N with moderate to heavy rain at ob time.

0700 AM     Flash Flood      1 S Thomasboro          40.23N 88.19W
08/15/2026                   Champaign          IL   Broadcast Media

            Report of a home in South Thomasboro
            beginning to take on water on the first
            floor from viewer relayed by broadcast
            media.

0704 AM     Rain             1 WSW Neoga             39.32N 88.46W
08/15/2026  M1.10 Inch       Cumberland         IL   CO-OP Observer

            24 hour rainfall report.

0710 AM     Rain             2 NW Central Illinois A 40.50N 88.93W
08/15/2026  M5.10 Inch       McLean             IL   NWS Employee

            Rainfall total from 1230am to 710am with
            additional rain falling at time of
            observation.

0713 AM     Rain             4 SSW Alta              40.77N 89.67W
08/15/2026  M1.92 Inch       Peoria             IL   NWS Employee

            Overnight rainfall total with rain
            continuing at time of observation.

0849 AM     Flash Flood      5 W Fiatt               40.56N 90.26W
08/15/2026                   Fulton             IL   Emergency Mngr

            Illinois Route 9 at Turkey Creek closed due
            to Water over roadway.

0855 AM     Flash Flood      1 NW Muncie             40.13N 87.86W
08/15/2026                   Vermilion          IL   Public

            Two creeks out of their banks and over East
            1800 North Rd. Relayed from media.

0903 AM     Flash Flood      2 NE Oakwood            40.14N 87.75W
08/15/2026                   Vermilion          IL   Emergency Mngr

            West entrance to Kickapoo State Park closed
            due to water over roadway.

0908 AM     Flash Flood      4 SSE Gifford           40.26N 87.99W
08/15/2026                   Champaign          IL   Broadcast Media

            Bridge washed out on County Road 2500 East.

0915 AM     Rain             Lewistown               40.40N 90.16W
08/15/2026  M4.20 Inch       Fulton             IL   Emergency Mngr

            Rainfall overnight.

0930 AM     Flash Flood      4 N Smithfield          40.53N 90.29W
08/15/2026                   Fulton             IL   Emergency Mngr

            Farm fields flooded near Put Creek.

0937 AM     Flash Flood      1 NW Muncie             40.12N 87.85W
08/15/2026                   Vermilion          IL   Law Enforcement

            I-74 has water across the road between exits
            200 and 206. Eastbound I-74 traffic is being
            diverted to US Rt 150 at exit 200 and
            westbound I-74 traffic is being diverted to
            US Rt 150 at exit 210.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1010 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1008 AM     Rain             2 NW Washington         40.73N 89.44W
08/15/2026  M2.68 Inch       Tazewell           IL   Broadcast Media

            27-hr rainfall total. Friday 7 am to
            Saturday 10 am.

&&

Shimon