Alert archive / Illinois / River Flood Warnings in 2026

River Flood Warning 13, NWS Lincoln, IL

May 18, 2026Lawrence County, Illinois

NWS Lincoln, IL issued this river flood warning at May 18, 2026, 5:58 PM CDT for Lawrence County, Illinois. It took effect at May 19, 2026, 2:24 PM CDT. It was in force for 3 days.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 18, 2026, 5:58 PM CDT (22:58 UTC)
In effect from
May 19, 2026, 2:24 PM CDT
Expired
May 22, 2026, 4:00 PM CDT
In force
3 days
Issued by
NWS Lincoln, IL
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
Minor

County Lawrence County, IL

The radar

The Evansville,IN radar (KVWX), 57 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:57 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Embarras River (IL) at Lawrenceville (LAWI2). The gauge peaked at 31.53 ft at May 21, 2026, 6:00 PM CDT.

actionminormoderate2025303505/1805/1905/2005/2105/2205/23
Action stage
27 ft
Minor stage
30 ft
Moderate stage
37 ft
Major stage
41 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 03346500, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted.

795 
WGUS43 KILX 182258
FLWILX

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
558 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

...The National Weather Service in Lincoln IL has issued a Flood 
Warning for the following rivers in Illinois...

  Embarras River at Lawrenceville affecting Lawrence County.

.The following forecasts are based on observed precipitation, soil 
moisture conditions, and forecast precipitation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Persons with interests along this river need to remain aware of the 
latest forecasts and associated flood risk for their area. Stay 
tuned for further updates on this flooding situation.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

&&

ILC101-191500-
/O.NEW.KILX.FL.W.0013.260519T1924Z-260523T0701Z/
/LAWI2.1.ER.260519T1924Z.260520T1800Z.260523T0100Z.NO/
558 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO EARLY SATURDAY 
MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Embarras River at Lawrenceville.

* WHEN...From Tuesday afternoon to early Saturday morning.

* IMPACTS...At 33.0 feet, Kelly's Lake Lane, 1160N, is inundated.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 4:45 PM CDT Monday the stage was 20.7 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    early tomorrow afternoon to a crest of 32.5 feet early
    Wednesday afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage
    Friday evening.
  - Flood stage is 30.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

              Fld   Observed           Forecasts (7 pm CDT)     
Location      Stg   Stg   Day/Time     Tue   Wed   Thu          

Embarras River
Lawrenceville 30.0  20.7  Mon 4 pm CDT 31.3  32.5  31.9         


&&

LAT...LON 3885 8786 3885 8773 3869 8759 3862 8765


$$

07
10 follow-up statements
779 
WGUS83 KILX 190147
FLSILX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
847 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Illinois...

  Embarras River at Lawrenceville affecting Lawrence County.

.The following forecasts are based on observed precipitation, soil 
moisture conditions, and forecast precipitation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Persons with interests along this river need to remain aware of the 
latest forecasts and associated flood risk for their area. Stay 
tuned for further updates on this flooding situation.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

&&

ILC101-191800-
/O.EXT.KILX.FL.W.0013.260520T1127Z-260523T0900Z/
/LAWI2.1.ER.260520T1127Z.260521T1200Z.260523T0300Z.NO/
847 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING TO EARLY 
SATURDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Embarras River at Lawrenceville.

* WHEN...From Wednesday morning to early Saturday morning.

* IMPACTS...At 33.0 feet, Kelly's Lake Lane, 1160N, is inundated.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 7:45 PM CDT Monday the stage was 21.3 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    Wednesday morning to a crest of 31.7 feet Thursday morning.
    It will then fall below flood stage late Friday evening.
  - Flood stage is 30.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

              Fld   Observed           Forecasts (7 pm CDT)     
Location      Stg   Stg   Day/Time     Tue   Wed   Thu          

Embarras River
Lawrenceville 30.0  21.3  Mon 7 pm CDT 27.7  31.1  31.5         


&&

LAT...LON 3885 8786 3885 8773 3869 8759 3862 8765


$$

Deubelbeiss
423 
WGUS83 KILX 191023
FLSILX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
523 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Illinois...

  Embarras River at Lawrenceville affecting Lawrence County.

.The following forecasts are based on observed precipitation, soil 
moisture conditions, and forecast precipitation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Persons with interests along this river need to remain aware of the 
latest forecasts and associated flood risk for their area. Stay 
tuned for further updates on this flooding situation.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

&&

ILC101-200230-
/O.EXT.KILX.FL.W.0013.260520T0120Z-260523T0730Z/
/LAWI2.1.ER.260520T0120Z.260521T0600Z.260523T0130Z.NO/
523 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING TO EARLY SATURDAY 
MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Embarras River at Lawrenceville.

* WHEN...From this evening to early Saturday morning.

* IMPACTS...At 33.0 feet, Kelly's Lake Lane, 1160N, is inundated.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 4:45 AM CDT Tuesday the stage was 26.5 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    this evening to a crest of 32.0 feet early Thursday morning.
    It will then fall below flood stage Friday evening.
  - Flood stage is 30.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

              Fld   Observed           Forecasts (7 am CDT)     
Location      Stg   Stg   Day/Time     Wed   Thu   Fri          

Embarras River
Lawrenceville 30.0  26.5  Tue 4 am CDT 31.2  32.0  30.9         


&&

LAT...LON 3885 8786 3885 8773 3869 8759 3862 8765


$$

37
969 
WGUS83 KILX 191458
FLSILX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
958 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Illinois...

  Embarras River at Lawrenceville affecting Lawrence County.

.Rapid river rises continue in response to heavy rain that occurred 
on Tuesday. Minor flooding on the lower Embarras River is likely to 
develop this evening, and linger into the first part of the weekend.

The following forecasts are based on observed precipitation, soil 
moisture conditions, and forecast precipitation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

&&

ILC101-200700-
/O.EXT.KILX.FL.W.0013.260520T0200Z-260523T1536Z/
/LAWI2.1.ER.260520T0200Z.260521T1200Z.260523T0936Z.NO/
958 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING TO LATE SATURDAY 
MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Embarras River at Lawrenceville.

* WHEN...From this evening to late Saturday morning.

* IMPACTS...At 30.0 feet, Minor agricultural flooding begins.
  At 33.0 feet, Kelly's Lake Lane, 1160N, is inundated.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:45 AM CDT Tuesday the stage was 27.8 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    late this evening to a crest of 32.1 feet Thursday morning.
    It will then fall below flood stage early Saturday morning.
  - Flood stage is 30.0 feet.


&&

              Fld   Observed           Forecasts (7 am CDT)     
Location      Stg   Stg   Day/Time     Wed   Thu   Fri          

Embarras River
Lawrenceville 30.0  27.8  Tue 8 am CDT 31.4  32.1  31.6         


&&

LAT...LON 3885 8786 3885 8773 3869 8759 3862 8765


$$

Geelhart
118 
WGUS83 KILX 200219
FLSILX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
919 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Illinois...

  Embarras River at Lawrenceville affecting Lawrence County.

.The following forecasts are based on observed precipitation, soil 
moisture conditions, and forecast precipitation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

&&

ILC101-201830-
/O.EXT.KILX.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-260523T0600Z/
/LAWI2.1.ER.260520T1200Z.260521T1200Z.260523T0000Z.NO/
919 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Embarras River at Lawrenceville.

* WHEN...Until early Saturday morning.

* IMPACTS...At 33.0 feet, Kelly's Lake Lane, 1160N, is inundated.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:45 PM CDT Tuesday the stage was 29.3 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    tomorrow morning to a crest of 32.0 feet Thursday morning. It
    will then fall below flood stage Friday evening.
  - Flood stage is 30.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

              Fld   Observed           Forecasts (7 pm CDT)     
Location      Stg   Stg   Day/Time     Wed   Thu   Fri          

Embarras River
Lawrenceville 30.0  29.3  Tue 8 pm CDT 31.6  31.6  30.0         


&&

LAT...LON 3885 8786 3885 8773 3869 8759 3862 8765


$$

Copple
514 
WGUS83 KILX 201428
FLSILX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
928 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Illinois...

  Embarras River at Lawrenceville affecting Lawrence County.

.The following forecasts are based on observed precipitation, soil 
moisture conditions, and forecast precipitation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

&&

ILC101-210630-
/O.EXT.KILX.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-260522T1630Z/
/LAWI2.1.ER.260520T1137Z.260521T1200Z.260522T1030Z.NO/
928 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE FRIDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Embarras River at Lawrenceville.

* WHEN...Until late Friday morning.

* IMPACTS...At 30.0 feet, Minor agricultural flooding begins.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:45 AM CDT Wednesday the stage was 30.2 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 8:45 AM CDT Wednesday was 30.2 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 30.9
    feet tomorrow morning. It will then fall below flood stage
    early Friday morning.
  - Flood stage is 30.0 feet.


&&

              Fld   Observed           Forecasts (7 am CDT)     
Location      Stg   Stg   Day/Time     Thu   Fri   Sat          

Embarras River
Lawrenceville 30.0  30.2  Wed 8 am CDT 30.9  29.9  27.5         


&&

LAT...LON 3885 8786 3885 8773 3869 8759 3862 8765


$$

Erwin
924 
WGUS83 KILX 210156 RRA
FLSILX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
856 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Illinois...

  Embarras River at Lawrenceville affecting Lawrence County.

.The following forecasts are based on observed precipitation, soil 
moisture conditions, and forecast precipitation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

&&

ILC101-211800-
/O.EXT.KILX.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-260522T1648Z/
/LAWI2.1.ER.260520T1137Z.260521T1200Z.260522T1048Z.NO/
856 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE FRIDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Embarras River at Lawrenceville.

* WHEN...Until late Friday morning.

* IMPACTS...At 30.0 feet, Minor agricultural flooding begins.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 7:45 PM CDT Wednesday the stage was 30.8 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 7:45 PM CDT Wednesday was 30.8 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 31.0
    feet tomorrow morning. It will then fall below flood stage
    early Friday morning.
  - Flood stage is 30.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

              Fld   Observed           Forecasts (7 pm CDT)     
Location      Stg   Stg   Day/Time     Thu   Fri   Sat          

Embarras River
Lawrenceville 30.0  30.8  Wed 7 pm CDT 30.8  28.7  26.7         


&&

LAT...LON 3885 8786 3885 8773 3869 8759 3862 8765


$$

Copple
171 
WGUS83 KILX 211534
FLSILX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1034 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Illinois...

  Embarras River at Lawrenceville affecting Lawrence County.

.The following forecasts are based on observed precipitation, soil 
moisture conditions, and forecast precipitation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

&&

ILC101-220745-
/O.EXT.KILX.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-260524T1200Z/
/LAWI2.1.ER.260520T1137Z.260522T1800Z.260524T0600Z.NO/
1034 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Embarras River at Lawrenceville.

* WHEN...Until Sunday morning.

* IMPACTS...At 33.0 feet, Kelly's Lake Lane, 1160N, is inundated.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 9:45 AM CDT Thursday the stage was 31.4 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 9:45 AM CDT Thursday was 31.4 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 31.9
    feet early tomorrow afternoon. It will then fall below flood
    stage early Sunday morning.
  - Flood stage is 30.0 feet.


&&

              Fld   Observed           Forecasts (1 pm CDT)     
Location      Stg   Stg   Day/Time     Fri   Sat   Sun          

Embarras River
Lawrenceville 30.0  31.4  Thu 9 am CDT 31.9  31.2  28.6         


&&

LAT...LON 3885 8786 3885 8773 3869 8759 3862 8765


$$

Erwin
855 
WGUS83 KILX 220211
FLSILX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
911 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Illinois...

  Embarras River at Lawrenceville affecting Lawrence County.

.The following forecasts are based on observed precipitation, soil 
moisture conditions, and forecast precipitation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

&&

ILC101-221815-
/O.CON.KILX.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-260524T1200Z/
/LAWI2.1.ER.260520T1137Z.260522T1800Z.260524T0600Z.NO/
911 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Embarras River at Lawrenceville.

* WHEN...Until Sunday morning.

* IMPACTS...At 33.0 feet, Kelly's Lake Lane, 1160N, is inundated.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:45 PM CDT Thursday the stage was 31.5 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 8:45 PM CDT Thursday was 31.5 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 31.7
    feet early tomorrow afternoon. It will then fall below flood
    stage early Sunday morning.
  - Flood stage is 30.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

              Fld   Observed           Forecasts (7 pm CDT)     
Location      Stg   Stg   Day/Time     Fri   Sat   Sun          

Embarras River
Lawrenceville 30.0  31.5  Thu 8 pm CDT 31.7  30.7  27.4         


&&

LAT...LON 3885 8786 3885 8773 3869 8759 3862 8765


$$

Copple
387 
WGUS83 KILX 221542
FLSILX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1042 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Illinois...

  Embarras River at Lawrenceville affecting Lawrence County.

.The following forecasts are based on observed precipitation, soil 
moisture conditions, and forecast precipitation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

&&

ILC101-230215-
/O.EXT.KILX.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-260523T0215Z/
/LAWI2.1.ER.260520T1137Z.260522T0245Z.260522T2015Z.NO/
1042 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Embarras River at Lawrenceville.

* WHEN...Until late this evening.

* IMPACTS...At 30.0 feet, Minor agricultural flooding begins.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 9:45 AM CDT Friday the stage was 30.9 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 9:45 AM CDT Friday was 31.5 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
    late this afternoon and continue falling to 19.2 feet Monday,
    June 01.
  - Flood stage is 30.0 feet.


&&

              Fld   Observed           Forecasts (1 pm CDT)     
Location      Stg   Stg   Day/Time     Sat   Sun   Mon          

Embarras River
Lawrenceville 30.0  30.9  Fri 9 am CDT 27.0  23.9  22.4         


&&

LAT...LON 3885 8786 3885 8773 3869 8759 3862 8765


$$

Erwin
627 
WGUS83 KILX 222100
FLSILX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
400 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Illinois...

  Embarras River at Lawrenceville affecting Lawrence County.

.The following forecasts are based on observed precipitation, soil 
moisture conditions, and forecast precipitation.

ILC101-222200-
/O.CAN.KILX.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-260522T2100Z/
/LAWI2.1.ER.260520T1137Z.260522T0245Z.260522T2006Z.NO/
400 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Embarras River at Lawrenceville.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 3:45 PM CDT Friday the stage was 29.9 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall to 19.2 feet Monday,
    June 01.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

              Fld   Observed           Forecasts (1 pm CDT)     
Location      Stg   Stg   Day/Time     Sat   Sun   Mon          

Embarras River
Lawrenceville 30.0  29.9  Fri 3 pm CDT 27.0  23.9  22.4         


&&

LAT...LON 3885 8786 3885 8773 3869 8759 3862 8765


$$

Copple

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Lincoln, IL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at May 18, 2:23 PM CDT, 3 hours 35 minutes earlier. Its key messages:

  • Repeating rounds of showers and storms could cause flash flooding south of a Shelbyville to Paris line through this evening. A Flood Watch is in effect for these areas.
  • Additional thunderstorms will develop along an advancing cold front on Tuesday, with a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe storms east of Interstate 55. Damaging winds, large hail, and heavy rainfall would be the most likely hazards.
Area forecast discussion, May 18, 2:23 PM CDT, 3 hours 35 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
223 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Repeating rounds of showers and storms could cause flash
  flooding south of a Shelbyville to Paris line through this
  evening. A Flood Watch is in effect for these areas.

- Additional thunderstorms will develop along an advancing cold
  front on Tuesday, with a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe
  storms east of Interstate 55. Damaging winds, large hail, and
  heavy rainfall would be the most likely hazards.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 223 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

A line of showers and thunderstorms has stalled out south of the I-
72 corridor this afternoon. Although wind shear has increased over
this area since this morning, instability has significantly waned
and has prevented storms from largely becoming organized. Despite
this, cannot completely rule out a strong updraft or two over the
next few hours in far southeast Illinois where RAP mesoanalysis
shows SBCAPE of 1000+ J/kg. If any strong storms do occur, damaging
winds would be possible. The main threat through the evening will be
heavy rainfall with PWATS up around 1.5 to 2 inches and hourly
rainfall rates up around 1 inch in the heaviest of storms. A Flood
Watch has been issued for areas south of a Shelbyville to Paris line
through this evening.

Further west, additional thunderstorms have developed over the
central Plains ahead of a cold front and will track east through
tonight, approaching western Illinois sometime after midnight. These
storms should weaken as they enter the area due to lack of
instability, though they could still produce gusty subsevere winds
as they track through the western half of the state. Most of the
shower and storm activity should subside by or before daybreak.

The cold front will approach the I-55 corridor around midday Tuesday
and be the focus for additional storm development by afternoon.
However, one limiting factor will be how long cloud cover from the
overnight storms lingers, which would ultimately limit our
destabilization potential. CAMS suggest destabilization will be most
likely in east-central and southeast Illinois by mid to late
afternoon in a moderately sheared environment. However, this appears
to be highly conditional at this point. If storms do develop,
damaging winds, large hail, and heavy rainfall will be the primary
concerns.

A drier and cooler period shapes up for midweek as high pressure
ridging slides through the Upper Midwest. This will be relatively
short-lived as upper troughing moves into the central US and
shortwave energy sends several rounds of precipitation through
Illinois this weekend into early next week. While the severe weather
risk appears low through this period, better moisture/instability
building by late weekend/early next week will support
thunderstorms at times.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

Precipitation will continue to slowly spread east along a remnant
outflow boundary through the remainder of this afternoon. Although
most of the thunderstorm activity should remain south of the
airfields, can't completely rule out a low chance for lightning at
KSPI and KDEC through about 00Z. After a lull this evening, another
wave of storms will approach from the west late tonight into the
early morning hours of Tuesday. PROB30 groups remain in place
for this potential at all locations. South-southwest winds will
be breezy through Tuesday, with gusts between 20-25 kts.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 10 PM CDT this evening for ILZ054>057-
061>063-066>068-071>073.

&&

KEY MESSAGES...NMA
DISCUSSION...NMA
AVIATION...NMA
Hazardous weather outlook, May 18, 2:47 PM CDT, 3 hours 11 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
247 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

ILZ054>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-192000-
Moultrie-Douglas-Coles-Edgar-Shelby-Cumberland-Clark-Effingham-
Jasper-Crawford-Clay-Richland-Lawrence-
247 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois, east
central Illinois and southeast Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Additional thunderstorms are possible overnight west of I-55.
Primary hazards with any stronger storms will be gusty winds and
lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Thunderstorms will redevelop ahead of a cold front Tuesday afternoon
and evening, mainly east of I-55. Damaging wind gusts, large hail,
and heavy rain are all possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight.

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>053-192000-
Knox-Stark-Peoria-Marshall-Woodford-Fulton-Tazewell-McLean-Schuyler-
Mason-Logan-De Witt-Piatt-Champaign-Vermilion-Cass-Menard-Scott-
Morgan-Sangamon-Christian-Macon-
247 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois, east
central Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Repeated rounds of storms could cause flash flooding through this
evening. A Flood Watch is in effect through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Thunderstorms will redevelop ahead of a cold front Tuesday afternoon
and evening. Damaging wind gusts, large hail, and heavy rain are all
possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight, though
rainfall reports are appreciated.

NMA

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 18, 3:06 PM CDT, 2 hours 52 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
306 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     Rain             1 SW Newton             38.98N 88.17W
05/18/2026  M2.63 Inch       Jasper             IL   Mesonet

            Mesonet station EW2373 Newton.

0255 PM     Rain             Effingham County Airpor 39.07N 88.53W
05/18/2026  M2.45 Inch       Effingham          IL   AWOS

            AWOS station K1H2 Effingham Arpt.

0245 PM     Rain             2 NNE Effingham         39.15N 88.53W
05/18/2026  M2.00 Inch       Effingham          IL   Mesonet

            Mesonet station DW5254 Baraboo.

&&
Local storm report, May 18, 3:44 PM CDT, 2 hours 14 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
344 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     Rain             Watson                  39.03N 88.57W
05/18/2026  M2.37 Inch       Effingham          IL   Cocorahs

            Still raining.

&&

BMD
Local storm report, May 18, 3:54 PM CDT, 2 hours 4 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
354 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     Rain             1 SW Newton             38.98N 88.17W
05/18/2026  M2.80 Inch       Jasper             IL   Mesonet

            Mesonet station EW2373 Newton.

0338 PM     Rain             Watson                  39.02N 88.57W
05/18/2026  M2.72 Inch       Effingham          IL   Mesonet

            Mesonet station FW0190 Watson.

0335 PM     Rain             Effingham County Airpor 39.07N 88.53W
05/18/2026  M2.66 Inch       Effingham          IL   AWOS

            AWOS station K1H2 Effingham Arpt.

0330 PM     Rain             2 NNE Effingham         39.15N 88.53W
05/18/2026  M2.31 Inch       Effingham          IL   Mesonet

            Mesonet station DW5254 Baraboo.

0330 PM     Rain             3 SW Dundas             38.80N 88.12W
05/18/2026  M1.79 Inch       Richland           IL   Mesonet

            Mesonet station FW1422 Olney.

0330 PM     Rain             Teutopolis              39.13N 88.48W
05/18/2026  M1.74 Inch       Effingham          IL   Mesonet

            Mesonet station FW1289 Teutopolis.

0315 PM     Rain             Edgar County Airport    39.70N 87.67W
05/18/2026  M1.48 Inch       Edgar              IL   AWOS

            AWOS station KPRG Edgar Co. Arpt.

0335 PM     Rain             1 SW Olney Noble Airpor 38.72N 88.18W
05/18/2026  M1.33 Inch       Richland           IL   AWOS

            AWOS station KOLY Olney Noble AP.

0330 PM     Rain             1 SW Meredosia          39.82N 90.57W
05/18/2026  M1.02 Inch       Morgan             IL   Mesonet

            Mesonet station MROI2 0.8 SW Meredosia.

0300 PM     Rain             1 SW Meredosia          39.82N 90.57W
05/18/2026  M1.00 Inch       Morgan             IL   Mesonet

            Mesonet station MROI2 0.8 SW Meredosia.

&&
Local storm report, May 18, 3:59 PM CDT, 1 hour 59 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
359 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0334 PM     Flood            Louisville              38.77N 88.50W
05/18/2026                   Clay               IL   Broadcast Media

            Flooding of a building just west of downtown
            Louisvillle. Side streets have water over
            them.

&&
Local storm report, May 18, 4:12 PM CDT, 1 hour 46 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
412 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     Rain             1 SW Newton             38.98N 88.17W
05/18/2026  M2.98 Inch       Jasper             IL   Mesonet

            Mesonet station EW2373 Newton.

0400 PM     Rain             2 NNE Marshall          39.41N 87.68W
05/18/2026  M1.11 Inch       Clark              IL   Mesonet

            Mesonet station AU010 Marshall.

&&
Local storm report, May 18, 5:21 PM CDT, 37 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
521 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     Rain             1 SW Newton             38.98N 88.17W
05/18/2026  M3.07 Inch       Jasper             IL   Mesonet

            Mesonet station EW2373 Newton.

0509 PM     Rain             Watson                  39.02N 88.57W
05/18/2026  M2.90 Inch       Effingham          IL   Mesonet

            Mesonet station FW0190 Watson.

0500 PM     Rain             2 NNE Effingham         39.15N 88.53W
05/18/2026  M2.43 Inch       Effingham          IL   Mesonet

            Mesonet station DW5254 Baraboo.

0445 PM     Rain             Teutopolis              39.13N 88.48W
05/18/2026  M1.89 Inch       Effingham          IL   Mesonet

            Mesonet station FW1289 Teutopolis.

0508 PM     Rain             2 SSE Clay City         38.66N 88.33W
05/18/2026  M1.02 Inch       Clay               IL   Mesonet

            Mesonet station AX448 CLAY CITY.

0500 PM     Rain             5 SSW Oxville           39.63N 90.61W
05/18/2026  M1.01 Inch       Scott              IL   Mesonet

            Mesonet station FLOI2 Florence.

0508 PM     Rain             3 NE Marshall           39.43N 87.65W
05/18/2026  M1.01 Inch       Clark              IL   Mesonet

            Mesonet station AP194 Marshall.

&&

The office that day

Everything else NWS Lincoln, IL issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 18, 8:18 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningILXFulton, Logan, Mason, Peoria, Tazewell39 min
May 18, 9:24 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningILXMcLean, Marshall, Woodford22 min
May 18, 9:36 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningILXDeWitt, Macon, Piatt39 min
May 18, 9:44 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningILXColes, Douglas, Edgar46 min
May 18, 9:49 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningILXChristian, Macon, Shelby41 min
May 18, 10:20 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningILXChampaign, Douglas, Macon, Moultrie, Piatt40 min
May 18, 10:28 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningILXClay, Effingham, Jasper47 min
May 18, 11:24 AM CDTFlood WatchILXClark, Clay, Coles, Crawford, Cumberland, Douglas and 7 more11 hr
May 18, 11:54 AM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryILXClay, Effingham, Jasper6 hr
May 18, 12:12 PM CDTRiver Flood WarningILXClay, Richland7 days
May 18, 1:44 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningILXClay, Effingham, Jasper4 hr
May 18, 2:52 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningILXClay3 hr
May 18, 3:23 PM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryILXClay, Crawford, Jasper, Lawrence, Richland3 hr
May 18, 5:50 PM CDTAreal Flood WarningILXClay, Effingham, Jasper15 hr

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Illinois, 2026Every river flood warning in 2026

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.