Flash Flood Warning 6, NWS Lincoln, IL

440 
WGUS73 KILX 280104
FFSILX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
804 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

ILC017-129-137-167-171-280114-
/O.CAN.KILX.FF.W.0006.000000T0000Z-260428T0200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cass IL-Menard IL-Morgan IL-Sangamon IL-Scott IL-
804 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR MENARD, NORTHWESTERN 
SANGAMON, CASS, MORGAN AND SCOTT COUNTIES...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

&&

LAT...LON 3983 9057 3987 9059 3993 9054 4006 9032
      4003 9020 4011 8989 4011 8963 3952 9017
      3952 9058 3954 9057 3956 9058 3964 9061
      3970 9065 3976 9061 3979 9060

$$

Bumgardner

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
235 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a level 3 of 5 (enhanced) risk for severe weather this
  evening. Damaging winds, large hail, a couple tornadoes, and
  flash flooding are all concerns, especially near and south of
  I-70.

- There is a 30-50% chance for frost Friday night. Tender
  vegetation may need to be covered in order to prevent damage.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

***** SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING *****

Mid level water vapor satellite reveals a negatively tilted upper
level trough spinning over the Midwest. At the surface, WPC has
analyzed a 996mb low in eastern Iowa which is forecast to lift
northeastward across Wisconsin this evening. Much of the warm sector
has been worked over at this point via a morning-early afternoon
MCS, but these storms left an outflow boundary near/south of the I-
70 corridor which will serve as a differential heating/convergence
zone for renewed storms later this afternoon. A wake low continues
to foster wind gusts up to 35mph from the southeast, which should
help maintain stable low levels further north. Nonetheless, a few
elevated storms could generate locally severe hail and wind in
those areas. Meanwhile, south of the I-70 corridor, dewpoints
should surge into the mid-upper 60s while a 50 kt LLJ maintains
40-55 kt effective bulk wind shear and 400-700 (679 on the VWX
vad profiler) m^2/s^2 0-3km SRH via strongly cyclonically
curved hodographs. CAMs generally suggest convective activity
developing upstream over the next couple hours and moving
through this environment during the evening will start discrete
and eventually grow upscale into another MCS. Hence, the initial
hazards will be very large hail and tornadoes, with the risk
transitioning to damaging winds, locally severe hail, and QLCS
tornadoes with time. Training storms will pose a risk for flash
flooding (REFS and HREF ensemble max precip have swaths of 4+
inches of rain falling in <6 hours), for which we have issued a
Flood Watch which extends through 10pm. A Tornado Watch is in
effect for Effingham to Crawford Counties and areas further
south, where the chance of surface based (and hence potentially
tornadic) storms is highest. Storms should exit the ILX County
Warning area by 11pm, while a cooler and more stable airmass
arrives from the west-northwest behind a cold front.

***** DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND  *****

Another shortwave will lift northeast through the area tomorrow
night, bringing another opportunity for some rain and perhaps a
rumble of thunder. Thankfully QPF with this system is lighter, with
a low (<20%) chance for an additional inch of rainfall. Since this
will occur around 24 hours after this evening's heavy rainfall in
southeast Illinois, the ground may have some time to absorb the
water, though we'll still be keeping one eye on it.

By Wednesday morning, a drier pattern should take hold of the
region, with less than a 20% chance for rain through the weekend.
High temperatures each day are forecast in the 60s, with locations
near and north of the I-74 corridor potentially (60% chance) not
climbing out of the 50s on Friday. The National Blend of Models
(NBM) indicates a 30-50% chance temperatures fall below 37 degF
Friday night into Saturday morning, which should be cold enough for
frost given the expected light winds.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

A thunderstorm complex will move east of the airfields over the
next couple hours, with a 30-40% chance of redevelopment north
to impact BMI and PIA (higher chances at the other airfields) after
22z. In the wake of the morning storms, a brief period of
southeast wind gusts to 40 kt are possible (20-30% chance); TAFs
will be amended for this as necessary. Otherwise, winds will
blow from the south-southeast around 15-20 kt with gusts up to
30 kt through late afternoon, veering to southwesterly and
easing this evening, and then veering more sharply to a west-
northwesterly direction tonight behind a cold front. There will
also be a 50-60% chance for MVFR ceilings behind that front
after around 06z.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 10 PM CDT this evening for ILZ052>057-
061>063-066>068-071>073.

&&

KEY MESSAGES...Bumgardner
DISCUSSION...Bumgardner
AVIATION...Bumgardner

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
232 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

ILZ027>031-036>038-040-041-281945-
Knox-Stark-Peoria-Marshall-Woodford-Fulton-Tazewell-McLean-Schuyler-
Mason-
232 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois and west
central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorm redevelopment continues to be possible this afternoon
and moving east through mid evening. The storms will be capable of
producing damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes. In addition,
heavy rainfall may produce areas of flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Minor flooding will persist on the Illinois River from Havana to
Beardstown through the week, with some renewed rises around midweek.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

Expected storm motion is toward the east-northeast around 50 mph.

ILZ042>057-061>063-281945-
Logan-De Witt-Piatt-Champaign-Vermilion-Cass-Menard-Scott-Morgan-
Sangamon-Christian-Macon-Moultrie-Douglas-Coles-Edgar-Shelby-
Cumberland-Clark-
232 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois, east
central Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorm redevelopment is possible this afternoon with storms
moving out of east central Illinois by late evening. The storms will
be capable of producing damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes.
In addition, heavy rainfall may produce areas of flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

A few thunderstorms are expected Tuesday night, but severe weather
is not likely.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

Expected storm motion is toward the east-northeast around 50 mph.

ILZ066>068-071>073-281945-
Effingham-Jasper-Crawford-Clay-Richland-Lawrence-
232 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Periods of thunderstorms are expected through the evening hours.
Some of these will be severe. Damaging winds and tornadoes are the
main concerns. In addition, heavy rainfall may produce areas of
flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected Tuesday night, but severe
weather is not likely.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

Expected storm motion is toward the east-northeast around 50 mph.

Knutsvig

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
343 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0234 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst Willard Airport         40.03N 88.28W
04/27/2026  M52 MPH          Champaign          IL   ASOS

            ASOS station KCMI Willard Arpt.

&&

JLA

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
346 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0333 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst Coles County Airport    39.47N 88.27W
04/27/2026  M52 MPH          Coles              IL   ASOS

            ASOS station KMTO Coles Co. Mem AP.

&&

JLA

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
350 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0338 PM     Hail             Bridgeport              38.71N 87.76W
04/27/2026  E1.25 Inch       Lawrence           IL   Public

            Report from mPING: Half Dollar (1.25 in.).

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
428 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0413 PM     Rain             3 NNE Curran            39.77N 89.75W
04/27/2026  M3.20 Inch       Sangamon           IL   Public

            Storm total rainfall since this morning.
            Relayed by Broadcast Media.

&&

JLA

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
434 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0352 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst Coles County Airport    39.47N 88.27W
04/27/2026  M53 MPH          Coles              IL   ASOS

            ASOS station KMTO Coles Co. Mem AP.

&&

JLA

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
509 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     Hail             1 N Pleasant Plains     39.89N 89.92W
04/27/2026  E0.88 Inch       Sangamon           IL   Fire Dept/Rescue

&&

JLA