Flash Flood Warning 5, NWS Lincoln, IL

371 
WGUS53 KILX 280004
FFWILX
ILC025-035-049-079-173-280230-
/O.EXT.KILX.FF.W.0005.000000T0000Z-260428T0230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
704 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

The National Weather Service in Lincoln has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Southeastern Shelby County in central Illinois...
  Southwestern Cumberland County in east central Illinois...
  Northern Clay County in south central Illinois...
  Effingham County in south central Illinois...
  Western Jasper County in southeastern Illinois...

* Until 930 PM CDT.

* At 704 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing 
  heavy rain across the warned area. Between 3 and 4 inches of rain 
  have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts up to 2 inches are 
  possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected 
  to begin shortly.

  HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

  SOURCE...Radar.

  IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban
           areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as
           other poor drainage and low-lying areas.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Effingham, Altamont, Teutopolis, Watson, Stewardson, Cowden, 
  Dieterich, Beecher City, Edgewood, Mason, Bible Grove, Shumway, 
  Montrose, Wheeler, Heartville, Woodbury, Strasburg, Clarksburg, 
  Sigel and Iola.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3922 8897 3926 8899 3940 8872 3918 8827
      3882 8826 3882 8870 3891 8869 3891 8881
      3922 8881

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

Bumgardner

257 
WGUS53 KILX 280202
FFWILX
ILC025-035-049-079-173-280400-
/O.EXT.KILX.FF.W.0005.000000T0000Z-260428T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
902 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

The National Weather Service in Lincoln has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Southeastern Shelby County in central Illinois...
  Southwestern Cumberland County in east central Illinois...
  Northern Clay County in south central Illinois...
  Effingham County in south central Illinois...
  Western Jasper County in southeastern Illinois...

* Until 1100 PM CDT.

* At 901 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing 
  heavy rain across the warned area. Up to 4 inches of rain have 
  fallen. Additional rainfall amounts up to 2 inches are possible in 
  the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin 
  shortly.

  HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

  SOURCE...Radar.

  IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban
           areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as
           other poor drainage and low-lying areas.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Effingham, Altamont, Teutopolis, Watson, Stewardson, Cowden, 
  Dieterich, Beecher City, Edgewood, Mason, Bible Grove, Shumway, 
  Montrose, Wheeler, Heartville, Woodbury, Sigel, Iola, Effingham 
  County Airport and Hord.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3922 8897 3924 8894 3934 8860 3918 8827
      3882 8826 3882 8870 3891 8869 3891 8881
      3922 8881

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

37

655 
WGUS53 KILX 280344
FFWILX
ILC025-035-049-079-173-281300-
/O.EXT.KILX.FF.W.0005.000000T0000Z-260428T1300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1044 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

The National Weather Service in Lincoln has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Southeastern Shelby County in central Illinois...
  Southwestern Cumberland County in east central Illinois...
  Northern Clay County in south central Illinois...
  Effingham County in south central Illinois...
  Western Jasper County in southeastern Illinois...

* Until 800 AM CDT Tuesday.

* At 1044 PM CDT, local law enforcement reported flash flooding 
  across the warned area. Between 3 and 6 inches of rain have 
  fallen. Flooding impacts will continue, but no additional rainfall 
  is expected.

  HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by heavy rain.

  SOURCE...Law enforcement reported.

  IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban
           areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as
           other poor drainage and low-lying areas.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Effingham, Altamont, Teutopolis, Watson, Stewardson, Cowden, 
  Dieterich, Beecher City, Edgewood, Mason, Bible Grove, Shumway, 
  Montrose, Wheeler, Heartville, Woodbury, Sigel, Iola, Effingham 
  County Airport and Hord.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3922 8897 3924 8894 3934 8860 3918 8827
      3882 8826 3882 8870 3891 8869 3891 8881
      3922 8881

FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED

$$

37

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
103 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected today. There is
  an Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) of severe storms, with the
  main concern being during the afternoon and evening. Storms
  will be capable of producing tornadoes, damaging winds, large
  hail, and flash flooding.

- Windy conditions are expected today, with southerly gusts of
  30-40 mph. This could lead to blowing dust in areas that do
  not receive rainfall this morning.

- More showers and storms are likely Tuesday evening, with the
  best chance being south of I-70 (80-90%). Severe storms are
  not expected.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1023 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

As of 1030 AM this morning, a line of thunderstorms is moving
across the I-55 corridor with severe thunderstorms warnings in
place from Lincoln through Springfield primarily for damaging
wind gusts but also for some hail. Scattered strong to severe
storms are preceding this main line of storms with an
accompanying large hail and wind threat. For the current line of
storms, anticipate steady-state to slight weakening trends as
storms continue east and outrun the main axis of instability.

An outflow boundary laying out west-to-east along the south end
of the main line of storms is expected to be the main focus for
severe thunderstorm redevelopment this afternoon. Latest runs
of the HRRR have been picking up on a southward trend in the
afternoon redevelopment where all severe hazards remain
possible. This threat appears to have shifted to just south of
the I-72 corridor, but will have to watch to see if the boundary
is able to meander northward any over the next few hours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

*** TODAY ***

The focus remains on today's forecast, a challenging one
involving multiple rounds of convection, potential for severe
storms and heavy rainfall, and strong synoptic winds that could
lead to blowing dust. We've been highlighting the impact of
morning storms on today's forecast, with more morning storms
reducing the severe storm and blowing dust chances relative to a
scenario with fewer morning storms. The forecast has trended
towards higher storm coverage across central IL this morning.

* MONDAY MORNING STORM CHANCES *

At 04z Mon/11pm Sun, sfc analysis indicated a sub-1000mb sfc low
near the OK Panhandle, with a secondary sfc low (1004 mb) near
the western MN/IA border. Upper level fields reveal a
negatively-tilted shortwave emerging over the central Plains,
embedded within a broader region of large scale troughing over
the northwestern 1/4 of the CONUS. Upstream of IL, there were
two areas of ongoing convection as of 0430z, one in the form of
scattered storms primarily south of the I-70 corridor in MO and
the other developing near the I-70 corridor in KS. There was
also a swath of light rain nearing the MS River corridor,
tracking east in time.

In previous days, the thinking was the evolution of the
convection across MO was going to be our primary chance for
storms locally into the early portions of Monday morning, but
the 00z CAM suite almost universally suggests the storms
developing over central KS will provide the better chance. This
also means that our local storm chances will arrive later into
Monday morning than previously forecast, which, if that
verifies, will have implications on instability this afternoon.

A WoFS run focused on cntrl KS has a strong paintball signal
(consistent signal across individual members) for an MCS to be
located over north/cntrl MO at 09z/4am Mon. Individual members
of both the 00z HREF and REFS show this activity spilling into
IL from the west between sunrise and midday, but these models do
appear a tad slower than what is depicted by WoFS. Ultimately,
confidence has increased that we will be dealing with extensive
cloud cover and areas of precip across cntrl IL this morning.
Surface- based instability ahead of this MCS should be limited,
but at least minor elevated instability and a strongly sheared
environment are expected. Towards late morning, SW flow
advecting the EML plume northward could result in an uptick in
MUCAPE/storm intensity. The main concern with the morning
activity would be isolated instances of large hail or strong
thunderstorm wind gusts. Based on the current CAM depiction of
these morning storms, it appears probable that an outflow
boundary or effective front will be established to the south of
the storms. Guidance favors this occurring somewhere near or
between the I-72 and I-70 corridors, but where it exactly it
occurs is low confidence.

* AFTERNOON/EVENING SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK *

Severe storms are still expected this afternoon and evening, but
where, how intense, and the associated hazards types will all
depend on the placement of the effective front and the degree of
atmospheric recovery after the morning convection. Dynamic wind
fields are expected in response to the negatively tilted
trough, with clockwise curved hodographs and 850mb wind fields
increasing over 60 kts by this afternoon, so wind shear will be
strong area- wide. Continued advection of the EML plume should
also result in moderate to high MUCAPEs building ahead of a cold
front encroaching from the west during the late
afternoon/evening. This should set the stage for at least
scattered severe storms (large hail/damaging winds) along the
cold front, although the amount of sfc instability remains a
major point of uncertainty. Strong linear forcing, plentiful
synoptic scale ascent, and shear vector crossing angles less
than 45 degrees favor a linear/quasi-linear storm mode along the
cold front.

As noted above, the morning convection favors an outflow
boundary being draped somewhere across the ILX CWA early this
afternoon. CAMs have caught on to this, and show low surface-
based instability north of this feature. My inclination is that
many of these CAMs may not be aggressive enough in the southward
placement of this boundary, but perhaps strong synoptic
southerly flow helps keep the cold outflow from surging away
from the storms, and reinforces a more northward placement of
that boundary. At any rate, there is skepticism that enough
recovery will occur north of this feature to support significant
surface-based severe hazards, while areas near/south of this
feature will face a significant all-hazards severe threat during
the afternoon/evening. Forecast soundings from near and south
of the effective front show strong instability, saturated low
levels (cloud bases/LCLs below 500m), and robust 0-1 km shear
(40 kts) and helicity (300+ J/kg), with the helicity maximized
near the effective front. This environment would pose a
significant risk of tornadoes. Unfortunately, the delineating
line between these two regimes may not become clear until early
afternoon.

In terms of timing, CAMs suggest the front and associated storms
reach the IL River between 23-00z (6-7 PM), I-55 between 00-01z
(7-8 PM), and I-57 between 01-02z (8-9 PM). That timing also
highlights a fast storm motion (over 50 mph), resulting in
limited sheltering time in the event of quick line-embedded
tornadic development. Remain weather aware today, and continue
to check for forecast updates as the relevant boundary placement
comes into better focus.

An Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) remains in place for the entire
ILX coverage area, but areas just north of our CWA were lowered
to a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5). Current indications based on
the latest CAMs are that the tornado threat area is highest
over the southern half of our forecast area. The adjustment to
SPC's tornado conditional intensity levels align with our
thinking, with the CIG2 area now focused across the southern
half of the state of IL.

* HYDROLOGIC CONSIDERATIONS *

Ensemble members depict PWAT values increasing to 1.4 to 1.6"
across the warm sector today, which is consistent with upstream
values currently noted in the RAP-based objective analysis.
Such values are near the max of the ILX observed sounding
climatology for late April. HREF LPMM continues to output
localized rainfall amounts of 1.5 to 3". This could lead to a
few instances of flash flooding. The evening storms along the
cold front will be fast moving, so the greatest concern will be
across areas where any morning convection trains.

* SYNOPTIC WINDS & BLOWING DUST POTENTIAL *

Breezy southerly winds are expected as the pressure gradient
tightens in response to the sfc low tracking northwest of our
area. However, with greater cloud cover and precip coverage
during the morning, the expectation is that boundary layer
mixing will be less robust than previously forecast, which would
limit the extent of advisory level (45+ mph) wind gusts.
Between increasing rain chances this morning and lower wind
gusts, the blowing dust concern is definitely lower than
previously thought, although like everything else in the
forecast the potential is not zero, and it hinges on the
evolution of these morning storms.

*** REST OF THE WEEK ***

Following the cold FROPA tonight, expect cooler conditions the
rest of the week, with highs generally in the 60s through Sat.
The baroclinic zone is expected to be just south of the ILX CWA
into Tues as another wave swings towards the region Tues PM.
PoPs increase with southeast extent Tues eve, from 30% along the
IL River Valley to over 80% south of I-70. Despite continued
strong wind shear, the sfc front being south of our CWA will
result in no surface-based instability, and the elevated
instability is low (less than 500 J/kg), thus severe storms are
not expected. In terms of rainfall amounts, the NBM suggests a
50-70% chance of a half inch of rain south of I-70, decreasing
to just a 20% chance of over a half inch of rain along and north
of I-72/Danville.

During the latter half of the work week, upper troughing shifts
to the eastern US/Canada, with an embedded shortwave digging
towards cntrl IL Thurs eve. An associated cold front could offer
a chance for light precip (15%), although limited moisture
return ahead of this system suggests PWATs will be less than
0.5". As a result of this front, Fri/Fri night appear like the
coolest period in the forecast, with highs in the upper 50s/low
60s and lows in the upper 30s. We will need to keep an eye on
the frost potential Friday night, but for now guidance has the
probability of lows below 36F less than 30%.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

A thunderstorm complex will move east of the airfields over the
next couple hours, with a 30-40% chance of redevelopment north
to impact BMI and PIA (higher chances at the other airfields) after
22z. In the wake of the morning storms, a brief period of
southeast wind gusts to 40 kt are possible (20-30% chance); TAFs
will be amended for this as necessary. Otherwise, winds will
blow from the south-southeast around 15-20 kt with gusts up to
30 kt through late afternoon, veering to southwesterly and
easing this evening, and then veering more sharply to a west-
northwesterly direction tonight behind a cold front. There will
also be a 50-60% chance for MVFR ceilings behind that front
after around 06z.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 10 PM CDT this evening for ILZ052>057-
061>063-066>068-071>073.

&&

KEY MESSAGES...Erwin
UPDATE...Deubelbeiss
DISCUSSION...Erwin
AVIATION...Bumgardner

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
532 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

ILZ027>031-036>038-040-041-281100-
Knox-Stark-Peoria-Marshall-Woodford-Fulton-Tazewell-McLean-Schuyler-
Mason-
532 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois and west
central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Thunderstorms will move into the area by late morning, continuing
through midday. Additional storms are expected to develop around mid
afternoon and move east through mid evening. The storms will be
capable of producing damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes. In
addition, heavy rainfall may produce areas of flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Minor flooding will persist on the Illinois River from Havana to
Beardstown through the week, with some renewed rises around midweek.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed between 9 am and 1 pm, and again
between 3 pm and 9 pm.

Expected storm motion is toward the northeast around 50 mph.

ILZ042>057-061-281100-
Logan-De Witt-Piatt-Champaign-Vermilion-Cass-Menard-Scott-Morgan-
Sangamon-Christian-Macon-Moultrie-Douglas-Coles-Edgar-Shelby-
532 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois, east
central Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Thunderstorms will move into west central Illinois around mid
morning, quickly moving east and persisting into the afternoon. By
early evening, most of the storms will be east of I-55, and will move
out of east central Illinois by late evening. The storms will be
capable of producing damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes. In
addition, heavy rainfall may produce areas of flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

A few thunderstorms are expected Tuesday night, but severe weather is
not likely.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed into this evening. In areas
west of I-55, this is most likely between 9 am and 7 pm. East of
I-55, it is most likely between 10 am and 10 pm.

Expected storm motion is toward the northeast around 50 mph.

ILZ062-063-066>068-071>073-281100-
Cumberland-Clark-Effingham-Jasper-Crawford-Clay-Richland-Lawrence-
532 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Periods of thunderstorms are expected through the evening hours. Some
of these will be severe. Damaging winds and tornadoes are the main
concerns. In addition, heavy rainfall may produce areas of flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected Tuesday night, but severe
weather is not likely.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed through this evening, with
the most likely time frame between 1 pm and 10 pm.

Expected storm motion is toward the northeast around 50 mph.

Geelhart

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1004 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1003 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Canton                  40.56N 90.04W
04/27/2026  M55 MPH          Fulton             IL   Mesonet

            Estimated 50-55 mph winds from SWOP
            observer.

&&

JRB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1018 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0925 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 SW Chapin             39.76N 90.42W
04/27/2026                   Morgan             IL   Emergency Mngr

            EMA reports tree and powerlines downed by
            thunderstorm winds.

&&

JRB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1139 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 AM     Hail             Olney                   38.72N 88.09W
04/27/2026  M1.00 Inch       Richland           IL   Trained Spotter

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1147 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1117 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 WSW Decatur Airport   39.83N 88.87W
04/27/2026  M56 MPH          Macon              IL   ASOS

            ASOS station KDEC Decatur Arpt.

&&

JRB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1150 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1048 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 SW Taylorville Airpor 39.50N 89.36W
04/27/2026                   Christian          IL   Emergency Mngr

            Tree downed across roadway, causing a semi
            rollover.

&&

JRB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
106 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1241 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Altamont                39.06N 88.75W
04/27/2026                   Effingham          IL   Emergency Mngr

            Tree blown down into a mobile home. No
            injuries reported.

&&

Shimon