Severe Thunderstorm Warning 71, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1220 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storm threat continues across portions of south central
  and southeast Kansas through the rest of the afternoon and
  evening hours. Large hail, damaging winds, locally heavy
  rainfall, and even a few tornadoes remain possible.

- Cooler temperatures this weekend, then a warming trend to
  start next week.

- Quiet weather through the middle of next week before the
  return of storm chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis depict strong mid/upper flow
ejecting out of the Southern Rockies into the Plains. A strong cold
front as of 12 PM was located along a line from roughly Kingman to
Newton to Hillsboro. An extremely buoyant airmass lies ahead of this
surface boundary with 3000-4000 J/kg of surface-based CAPE, which
will support rapid storm development along the boundary this
afternoon into the evening hours. This instability paired with 50
kts of deep-layer shear will promote severe storms capable of
producing large to very large hail (greater than 2 inches in
diameter) with the initial activity. However, per the previous
discussion, we expect storm mode to go linear rather quickly as
short term guidance continues to indicate shear oriented mostly
parallel to the cold front. Therefore, as activity becomes linear
through the rest of the afternoon into the evening hours, the
primary threats should transition to strong winds and heavy
rainfall. Should a storm be able to separate from the cold front and
remain discrete into the evening hours, however, a strengthening LLJ
will increase low-level shear/SRH and may allow for a slightly
higher tornado threat, especially across far southeast Kansas.

In addition to the severe threat, the exceptionally moist airmass
ahead of today's front may provide the potential for heavy rain and
localized flooding concerns later tonight, especially if storms
begin to train along the boundary. This threat will likely remain
confined to areas along and southeast of the Kansas Turnpike. We
expect storm chances to largely come to an end after midnight as the
cold front exits southeast Kansas.

Cooler and quieter weather is expected to follow in the wake of
today's system as northwest flow aloft settles in over the
Heartland. Low temperatures Saturday morning are expected to dip
into the low 40s along and southeast of the Kansas Turnpike, while
portions of central Kansas may see temperatures near freezing.
Additionally, breezy north winds in the trailing airmass will
promote wind chills in the 20s and 30s to start the day. Seasonably
cool highs in the low 60s are expected across the majority of the
area. With clear to mostly clear skies forecast to remain in place
throughout the day into the overnight period, radiational cooling
Saturday night should promote widespread lows in the 30s heading
into Sunday morning. Largely southerly winds will allow for
temperatures to rebound into the 70s Sunday afternoon, with perhaps
slightly warmer temperatures possible in central Kansas thanks to
more of a downslope wind component. High temperatures in the 70s and
low 80s are expected Monday through Wednesday.

Looking ahead to the latter half of next week, GFS/ECMWF/Canadian
all highlight a mid/upper trough tracking eastward over the Desert
Southwest into the Rockies and Plains. This feature may allow for
another period of active weather as early as Wednesday, though to
this point Thursday evening appears to have the greatest chances for
showers and storms. Stay tuned as additional details come into
focus.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

A cold front is quickly moving southeast through Kansas early this
afternoon. As of 17z this front was located from KHUT to KMHK and
moving to the southeast at around 10kts. Behind the front, winds are
switching around to the north and becoming gusty and remain gusty
through the night. Ahead of this front, instability is increasing
which will lead to strong to severe thunderstorms generally from
KICT and points southeast. Thunderstorms that develop will produce
very large hail, gusty and erratic winds, frequent lightning, and
heavy rainfall which will reduce the visibility at times. Eventually
a line of storms will develop and move to the southeast eventually
clearing the southeast corner of Kansas by around midnight. Once the
line of storms clears the area conditions will return to VFR with
northerly winds slowly diminishing through the night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Breezy north/northwest winds and dry conditions will support very
high grassland fire danger this afternoon for areas west of
Interstate 135. Very high grassland fire danger is forecast for the
same areas during the afternoon hours on Monday, Wednesday, and
Thursday.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...WI
FIRE WEATHER...JWK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1224 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-181730-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
1224 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Severe storms will be likely this afternoon and evening along a
strong cold front. Storms are expected to first develop between
1 pm and 5 pm generally along a Marion, to Wichita, to Harper line
and track off to the east. Storms will exit southeast Kansas
between 10 pm and 1 am. Large hail and damaging winds will be
possible with the stronger storms. In addition, a couple tornadoes
will be possible, generally before 8 pm.

Very high grassland fire danger is forecast for areas along and
west of I-135 this afternoon due to gusty north winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Some frost will be possible Sunday morning for much of south
central and southeast Kansas.

Very high fire danger will return to areas along and west of
Highway 14 for Monday, Wednesday and Thursday. This will be due to
above normal temperatures and gusty south winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening
primarily along and southeast of the Kansas Turnpike.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=ict

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