Flash Flood Warning 2, NWS Huntsville, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1126 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1126 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

 - There is a low chance for a few strong to severe thunderstorms
   today. The primary convective hazards will be gusty to damaging
   winds and a tornado or two.

 - The risk for flash, areal and river flooding will continue to
   increase today and tonight, and a Flash Flood Watch is in
   effect for portions of the forecast area.

 - A wet weather pattern will continue for the next seven days
   with an additional 2.5-4 inches of rain expected. Thus, the
   risk for flooding will continue through much of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today and Tonight)
Issued at 1126 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Embedded within prevailing southwesterly flow aloft (between a
subtropical ridge to our southeast and a developing mid/upper low
across southern SK/MB), a weak but negatively-tilted shortwave
trough will progress from the Arklatex into the Lower Great Lakes
by 12Z Saturday. In the low-levels, an increasingly compact area
of low pressure will lift northeastward from southern AR into
western TN/KY this afternoon before advancing into central IN
tonight, resulting in a modest increase in SSE flow across the
warm sector.

Present indications are that an extensive band of rain and
thunderstorms within the cyclone's warm conveyor belt will
continue to spread slowly eastward across much of AL this morning
and into the early afternoon, as the SSW low-level jet strengthens
to 30-40 knots. Although hodographs suggest that both 0-3km and
0-1km shear will support development of mesocyclones and brief
tornadoes with stronger updrafts, the strongest cells appear as if
they will be most concentrated across the southern half of the
state (where SBCAPE is already in excess of 2500-3000 J/kg). Later
this afternoon, a separate axis of convection may evolve within a
low-level confluence axis extending southward from the primary
low into central MS. This activity should track eastward into
northwest AL after 21Z, and may also feature a similar risk for
mesocyclones and brief tornadoes (especially if clouds partially
scatter in this region, enabling CAPE to reach 1000-1250 J/kg).
Otherwise, heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding will be the
most significant concern today and tonight, given PWAT values in
the 1.6-1.8" range. A Flash Flood Watch has been issued for the
portion of the CWFA that has experienced the heaviest rainfall
recently, and thus has the lowest 1-hour FFG values.

Although afternoon convection will likely last for a couple of
hours beyond sunset this evening before dissipating, a brief
period of drier conditions is expected from late this evening into
the early morning hours Saturday. However, there is some concern
that a subtle prefrontal confluence axis may drift southeastward
into the region and initiate new showers and thunderstorms in the
10-12Z timeframe. As overcast low stratus clouds return in earnest
this evening, overnight lows will be rather mild and in the l-m
60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 1126 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms (which may develop along a
prefrontal confluence axis shortly before sunrise) will tend to
spread southeastward with time and should exit our region by early
afternoon. And, with mid-level height rises and broad scale
subsidence predicted to strengthen in the wake of a departing
shortwave trough, redevelopment of convection along remnant
mesoscale boundaries tomorrow afternoon is uncertain. Regardless,
a few thunderstorms will likely materialize over the course of the
afternoon as temps warm into the u70s-l80s and these would be
within an environment of higher CAPE (1500-2000 J/kg) but much
weaker low-level shear compared to today. Thus, in spite of lower
storm coverage, conditions appear slightly more favorable for
damaging downburst winds tomorrow afternoon. In similar fashion to
today, diurnal convection will dissipate within a couple of hours
of sunset Saturday evening, with dry but warm/humid conditions
anticipated through early Sunday morning.

During the timeframe from Sunday-Sunday night, chances for
showers and thunderstorms will quickly increase once again as a
southerly low-level jet strengthens to the east of a developing
cutoff upper low in the subtropical jet (across eastern TX).
Although deep-layer wind fields appear too weak to support storm
organization, precipitable water values will remain rather high.
Thus, the primary impacts from storms during this period will be
lightning and locally heavy rainfall/flooding. Highs on Sunday
will once again reach the u70s-l80s, with overnight lows remaining
in the l-m 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 950 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

The relief from the roller coaster of showers and thunderstorms
you are looking for won't be found in the Long Term. We will be in
a stagnate pattern that will keep medium to high rain chances in
through mid week next week. As of right now, no severe weather is
expected during this time. With the persistent rounds of rainfall,
the potential for flooding will be closely monitored. WPC has at
least some part of the forecast area in a Marginal ERO through
Tuesday. From a drought perspective, we really needed the rain,
but I think we are all ready for the return of some sunshine. High
and low temperatures won't fluctuate much, with highs in the
lower 80s, and lows in the low to mid 60s throughout the Long
Term.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 558 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Light showers were ongoing over portions of north Alabama and
southern middle Tennessee at issuance. In addition, CIGs at some
sites have lowered to MVFR or IFR early this morning - these
places were largely the ones who received rainfall last evening
and overnight. Although a slight lull in shower/storm activity is
anticipated this morning, chances will increase once again come
late morning/early afternoon. A rainy and stormy day will then
ensue. Expect lower CIGs through the day, but especially in the
heavier showers/stronger storms (along with lower VIS).
Furthermore, southerly winds are expected to increase by late
morning/early afternoon to be roughly 10 knots with gusts to
around 20 knots. Shower and storm activity then decreases this
evening, along with winds. Although, shower and storm chances
increase again later tonight into early Saturday morning.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for ALZ008>010-016.

TN...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM...70/DD
LONG TERM...JMS
AVIATION...26

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1201 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

ALZ008-009-221730-
Marshall AL-Jackson AL-
1201 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN MARSHALL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL JACKSON COUNTIES THROUGH 1230 PM CDT...

At 1201 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Section, or 8 miles south of Scottsboro, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Scottsboro, Hollywood, Section, Pisgah, Dutton, Langston, and
Martintown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3448 8599 3448 8602 3447 8603 3447 8606
      3443 8611 3441 8611 3447 8623 3483 8605
      3470 8577
TIME...MOT...LOC 1701Z 210DEG 21KT 3454 8608

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

KTW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1218 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

ALZ005-221800-
Limestone AL-
1218 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN LIMESTONE COUNTY
THROUGH 100 PM CDT...

At 1218 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Huntsville International Airport, or 7 miles northeast of Decatur,
moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts in excess of 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Madison, Athens, Tanner, Mooresville, Belle Mina, French Mill, and
Capshaw.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3481 8679 3468 8679 3457 8688 3459 8693
      3461 8696 3487 8698
TIME...MOT...LOC 1718Z 217DEG 24KT 3463 8688

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

KTW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1229 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

ALZ006-TNZ096-221800-
Madison AL-Lincoln TN-
1229 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN MADISON AND
SOUTHEASTERN LINCOLN COUNTIES THROUGH 100 PM CDT...

At 1229 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Meridianville, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Northern Huntsville, Fayetteville, Meridianville, Moores Mill, Hazel
Green, Lincoln, Belleview, Skinem, Molino, and Flintville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3479 8664 3488 8673 3516 8660 3506 8634
TIME...MOT...LOC 1729Z 208DEG 25KT 3487 8663

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

KTW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1230 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

ALZ009-221800-
Jackson AL-
1230 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTY
THROUGH 100 PM CDT...

At 1230 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Hollywood, or 7 miles northeast of Scottsboro, moving northeast at 30
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Scottsboro, Bridgeport, Stevenson, Hollywood, Bass, Martintown,
Russell Cave National Monument, and Fackler.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3465 8596 3472 8606 3499 8594 3499 8580
      3493 8567
TIME...MOT...LOC 1730Z 208DEG 25KT 3474 8596

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

KTW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1233 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

ALZ007-008-016-221800-
Marshall AL-Morgan AL-Cullman AL-
1233 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL MARSHALL...CULLMAN
AND SOUTHEASTERN MORGAN COUNTIES THROUGH 100 PM CDT...

At 1233 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Good Hope, or near Cullman, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Cullman, Hartselle, Arab, Hanceville, Good Hope, Falkville, Holly
Pond, Dodge City, Baldwin, and Vinemont.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3405 8711 3450 8689 3430 8640 3425 8644
      3425 8652 3419 8655 3418 8655 3412 8660
      3412 8663 3409 8666 3408 8669 3409 8669
      3408 8670 3405 8668 3406 8671 3403 8670
      3395 8679 3396 8682 3393 8686
TIME...MOT...LOC 1733Z 203DEG 20KT 3412 8685

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

KTW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1244 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

ALZ016-221815-
Cullman AL-
1244 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN CULLMAN COUNTY
THROUGH 115 PM CDT...

At 1244 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Smith Dam, or 10 miles east of Jasper, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Dodge City, Crane Hill, Wilburn, Smith Lake, and Bremen.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3390 8710 3391 8708 3394 8711 3396 8711
      3397 8714 3399 8714 3399 8711 3407 8711
      3413 8709 3403 8686 3389 8704
TIME...MOT...LOC 1744Z 211DEG 26KT 3391 8711

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

KTW