Severe Thunderstorm Warning 39, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
130 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Rain amounts trend slightly drier for today and Tuesday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Scattered showers and thunderstorms through this evening with
a marginal risk for severe storms, mainly across the southern
half of the area.
2. Dry conditions return with a warming trend through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key message 1: Scattered showers and thunderstorms through this
evening with a marginal risk for severe storms, mainly across the
southern half of the area.

A trough over the eastern portion of the country amplifies southward
today and brings a cold front through on Tuesday. Ahead of that, a
NW upper flow regime sets up the MCS maker and brings the chance for
scattered showers and thunderstorms through tonight. The Storm
Prediction Center has a marginal risk (1 of 5) for severe weather
today. Out west, an MCS is already ongoing, but is expected to dive
south of the area. Meanwhile, ahead of it, a series of shortwaves
cross the CWA, adding an area of lift for storms. Model soundings
for the afternoon show modest amounts of instability developing with
about 1000-1500 J/kg of sbCAPE and 30-35kts of bulk shear. Given the
anticipated environment, cannot rule out a few storms becoming
strong or severe with strong winds and small hail being the main
threats. Brief periods of heavy rainfall are also possible with any
storm that develops. However, storms should be moving out quickly,
reducing flood concerns. The main locations with the higher chances
for showers and thunderstorms becoming severe are along and west of
I-26 in NC/SC and into northeast GA.

For Tuesday, guidance depicts another round of showers ahead of the
cold front pushing through. Coverage looks to be less widespread and
rather benign. Highest chances are for the mountains (30-45%), but
there is still a slight chance (15-30%) for locations along and west
of I-26. QPF response looks to be minimal, with most locations
receiving less than 0.10" in totals. There could be a slight uptick
if a shower produces more rain in an isolated location. Temps look
to be below normal for Tuesday as well.

Key message 2: Dry conditions return with a warming trend through the
weekend.

Once the frontal boundary passes, much drier air and calmer weather
conditions ensue. High pressure is ushered in as a ridge moves over
the southeast and remains in place through the weekend. These height
rises toward the end of the week look to increase daily temps to
normal for June. Moisture starts to return as well after mid-week
and this increases dewpoints. However, not foreseeing any heat index
issues at this time. Long range guidance starts to signal for rain
chances returning toward the beginning of next week, but confidence
this far out is very low.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Conditions should prevail VFR for most of the
TAF period, with some brief restrictions for TSRA through the
evening and a return at a few sites of MVFR Tuesday morning. For
this afternoon, showers and thunderstorm chances increase at all
terminals. TEMPOs for KCLT/KGSP/KAND/KGMU should suffice for the
first round of TSRA between 18z-22z. Another round could occur after
22z through 04z, but certainty on location is lower. For this, VCTS
for those storms at KCLT/KGSP. There may be a lingering SHRA after
04z, but confidence is low. Brief vsby restrictions possible with
any TSRA. Otherwise, vsby remains VFR. As for cigs, lower stratus
returns for a few terminals ahead of drier air moving in Tuesday.
Expect brief MVFR Tuesday morning and low-end gusts of 15-20kts
after 12z for terminals east of the mountains. Wind direction should
remain N/NE for the duration of the forecast.

Outlook: Showers possible again Tuesday afternoon. A drier pattern
sets up by Wednesday and continues through the rest of the week.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

CP

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