Severe Thunderstorm Warning 36, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
130 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Rain amounts trend slightly drier for today and Tuesday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Scattered showers and thunderstorms through this evening with
a marginal risk for severe storms, mainly across the southern
half of the area.
2. Dry conditions return with a warming trend through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key message 1: Scattered showers and thunderstorms through this
evening with a marginal risk for severe storms, mainly across the
southern half of the area.

A trough over the eastern portion of the country amplifies southward
today and brings a cold front through on Tuesday. Ahead of that, a
NW upper flow regime sets up the MCS maker and brings the chance for
scattered showers and thunderstorms through tonight. The Storm
Prediction Center has a marginal risk (1 of 5) for severe weather
today. Out west, an MCS is already ongoing, but is expected to dive
south of the area. Meanwhile, ahead of it, a series of shortwaves
cross the CWA, adding an area of lift for storms. Model soundings
for the afternoon show modest amounts of instability developing with
about 1000-1500 J/kg of sbCAPE and 30-35kts of bulk shear. Given the
anticipated environment, cannot rule out a few storms becoming
strong or severe with strong winds and small hail being the main
threats. Brief periods of heavy rainfall are also possible with any
storm that develops. However, storms should be moving out quickly,
reducing flood concerns. The main locations with the higher chances
for showers and thunderstorms becoming severe are along and west of
I-26 in NC/SC and into northeast GA.

For Tuesday, guidance depicts another round of showers ahead of the
cold front pushing through. Coverage looks to be less widespread and
rather benign. Highest chances are for the mountains (30-45%), but
there is still a slight chance (15-30%) for locations along and west
of I-26. QPF response looks to be minimal, with most locations
receiving less than 0.10" in totals. There could be a slight uptick
if a shower produces more rain in an isolated location. Temps look
to be below normal for Tuesday as well.

Key message 2: Dry conditions return with a warming trend through the
weekend.

Once the frontal boundary passes, much drier air and calmer weather
conditions ensue. High pressure is ushered in as a ridge moves over
the southeast and remains in place through the weekend. These height
rises toward the end of the week look to increase daily temps to
normal for June. Moisture starts to return as well after mid-week
and this increases dewpoints. However, not foreseeing any heat index
issues at this time. Long range guidance starts to signal for rain
chances returning toward the beginning of next week, but confidence
this far out is very low.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Conditions should prevail VFR for most of the
TAF period, with some brief restrictions for TSRA through the
evening and a return at a few sites of MVFR Tuesday morning. For
this afternoon, showers and thunderstorm chances increase at all
terminals. TEMPOs for KCLT/KGSP/KAND/KGMU should suffice for the
first round of TSRA between 18z-22z. Another round could occur after
22z through 04z, but certainty on location is lower. For this, VCTS
for those storms at KCLT/KGSP. There may be a lingering SHRA after
04z, but confidence is low. Brief vsby restrictions possible with
any TSRA. Otherwise, vsby remains VFR. As for cigs, lower stratus
returns for a few terminals ahead of drier air moving in Tuesday.
Expect brief MVFR Tuesday morning and low-end gusts of 15-20kts
after 12z for terminals east of the mountains. Wind direction should
remain N/NE for the duration of the forecast.

Outlook: Showers possible again Tuesday afternoon. A drier pattern
sets up by Wednesday and continues through the rest of the week.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

CP

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
337 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

NCZ056-069-012000-
Lincoln NC-Catawba NC-
337 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN CATAWBA AND EASTERN
LINCOLN COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM EDT...

At 336 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles southeast of Newton, or near Maiden, moving southeast at 15
mph.  Another strong storm was also developing near Sherrills Ford.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Newton, Maiden, Westport, Boger City, Iron Station, Lake Norman,
Denver, Lowesville, Sherrills Ford, and Terrell.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

If on or near Lake Norman, get out of the water and move indoors or
inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 10 miles
from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now! Do not
be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 3563 8096 3559 8094 3555 8096 3554 8094
      3553 8094 3553 8095 3550 8096 3549 8095
      3547 8095 3545 8094 3543 8096 3540 8101
      3541 8118 3564 8126 3568 8115
TIME...MOT...LOC 1936Z 336DEG 13KT 3560 8116

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

PM

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