Severe Thunderstorm Warning 80, NWS Green Bay, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
146 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances for showers and storms at times through Thursday
  afternoon. Some of the storms this afternoon and evening may
  become severe, producing large hail and damaging winds.

- Near to below normal temperatures rest of this week, trending
  above normal and humid by early next week. Periodic chances
  for thunderstorms are also possible early next week, with the
  potential for severe weather.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 146 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Precipitation/Thunder Chances...Scattered low clouds prevailed
across the region early this afternoon ahead of an impending surface
low and it's weak cold front. Decent destabilization has already
occurred over western WI early this afternoon with SBCAPE of 1500-
2000 J/kg, paired with 30-40 of effective bulk shear across central
WI. As a result, isolated storms have developed in portions of
northern WI and west-central WI, some of which have already had
reports of severe hail. Generally, scattered to numerous showers and
storms are anticipated this afternoon and evening, ending soon after
sunset with the loss of diurnal heating. SBCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg
and deep-layer shear of 30-40 kts is anticipated during this time,
leading to updraft organization producing a mix of multicells,
supercells, and perhaps some splitting cells, aiding in a risk of
large hail up to 1.50 inches and damaging winds up to 60 mph. There
is also a very low risk for spin ups or funnel clouds due to the
proximity to the surface low and steeper low-level lapse rates,
mainly in central and north-central WI.

As the surface low and a mid-level trough move over MI on Thursday,
additional isolated showers and storms are anticipated Thursday
afternoon into the early evening, aided by up to 500 J/kg of CAPE.
However, no severe weather is expected.

Models continue to indicate a stark pattern change occurring this
weekend with an upper-level ridge building over the area before
breaking down sometime during the middle of next week. This would
bring more summer-like conditions to the area with increasing Gulf
moisture and potential ridge riders resulting in thunderstorms at
times, including possible severe storms at times. Will continue to
watch how this pattern change evolves over the coming days for any
impactful weather. At this point, the main takeaway is to plan on a
much more active weather pattern developing, with storm potential
not tied exclusively to peak heating of the day.

Fog Potential...Following the showers and storms this afternoon and
evening, some fog could occur late tonight, with best chances of
sharply reduced visibility over northern WI and maybe closer to Lake
Michigan. Agreement on this is not great though.

Temperatures...Below normal temperatures in the low to mid 70s and
comfortable humidity levels will continue through Friday.
Temperatures then gradually warm to normal on Saturday and above
normal on Sunday through early next week into the upper 80s to mid
90s due to the ridging pattern change. In addition to the much
warmer temperatures, dew points will also rise into the low to
possible mid 70s by Monday. If this pattern pans out, we could be
looking at a couple day stretch of heat-related impacts occurring.
This is already being highlighted with the NWS HeatRisk on Monday
with the Major (level 3 of 4) category and Major with some Extreme
(level 4 of 4) category on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 113 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Scattered to broken MVFR/low-end VFR cigs prevailed across the
region early this afternoon as isolated showers and storms began
to develop in portions of north-central and far northeast WI. The
isolated showers and storms will become more scattered in coverage
as the afternoon goes on and becoming less in coverage as the
sunsets. Decided to include TSRA with TEMPO groups at all TAF
sites when confidence is greatest. Otherwise, the showers are
anticipated to end between 02-06z Thu. Some stronger storms may
occur this afternoon and evening with hail and gusty winds being
the main threats. MVFR cigs/vsbys will also accompany the stronger
storms. Cigs are anticipated to drop to MVFR and IFR overnight
into Thursday morning. Fog may also develop late tonight across
north-central and far northeast WI, and along the lakeshore,
lifting by 12z Thu.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION.....Kruk
AVIATION.......Kruk

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
116 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-251830-
Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln-
Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano-
Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago-
Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County-
Southern Oconto County-
116 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms will diminish during the evening. A few
storms may be severe, producing large hail and damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Wednesday

There is a small chance for thunderstorms Thursday afternoon. Severe
weather is not expected.

The chance for thunderstorms will increase early next week. It is
too early to determine if storms will be severe, but the pattern
would support severe weather.

In addition, hot and humid conditions may build across the area
early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon.

LMZ521-522-541>543-251830-
The Bay of Green Bay south of a line from Cedar River MI to Rock
Island Passage-Lake Michigan from Washington Island to Sheboygan-
116 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Lake
Michigan and the waters of Green Bay.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are expected through late this evening.
Any thunderstorms will pose a hazard for mariners.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Wednesday

There is a small chance of thunderstorms Thursday afternoon. More
thunderstorms are possible Sunday through Tuesday. Any thunderstorms
will pose a hazard for mariners.

JM/Kruk

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
516 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

WIZ011-012-242245-
Florence WI-Forest WI-
516 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL FOREST AND FLORENCE
COUNTIES THROUGH 545 PM CDT...

At 516 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Tipler to near Florence. Movement was
southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 30 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Fern and Tipler around 520 PM CDT.
  Popple River around 525 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Popple River
Headwaters Natural Area, West Bass Lake Campground, Bastile Lake
Natural Area, Commonwealth, Lasalle Falls, Spread Eagle, Morgan Lake
Campground, Lost Lake Campground, Long Lake, and Windsor Dam
Campground.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
northeastern Wisconsin.

&&

LAT...LON 4595 8824 4595 8819 4592 8812 4592 8810
      4588 8810 4588 8808 4586 8808 4582 8814
      4580 8811 4577 8810 4574 8882 4595 8887
      4596 8833 4596 8832 4595 8829 4596 8825
TIME...MOT...LOC 2216Z 337DEG 10KT 4587 8874 4590 8833

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Uhlmann

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
519 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0514 PM     Hail             2 SW Zachow             44.71N 88.38W
06/24/2026  E0.50 Inch       Shawano            WI   Public

            Report from mPING: Half-inch (0.50 in.).

&&

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