Severe Thunderstorm Warning 75, NWS Green Bay, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
146 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances for showers and storms at times through Thursday
  afternoon. Some of the storms this afternoon and evening may
  become severe, producing large hail and damaging winds.

- Near to below normal temperatures rest of this week, trending
  above normal and humid by early next week. Periodic chances
  for thunderstorms are also possible early next week, with the
  potential for severe weather.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 146 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Precipitation/Thunder Chances...Scattered low clouds prevailed
across the region early this afternoon ahead of an impending surface
low and it's weak cold front. Decent destabilization has already
occurred over western WI early this afternoon with SBCAPE of 1500-
2000 J/kg, paired with 30-40 of effective bulk shear across central
WI. As a result, isolated storms have developed in portions of
northern WI and west-central WI, some of which have already had
reports of severe hail. Generally, scattered to numerous showers and
storms are anticipated this afternoon and evening, ending soon after
sunset with the loss of diurnal heating. SBCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg
and deep-layer shear of 30-40 kts is anticipated during this time,
leading to updraft organization producing a mix of multicells,
supercells, and perhaps some splitting cells, aiding in a risk of
large hail up to 1.50 inches and damaging winds up to 60 mph. There
is also a very low risk for spin ups or funnel clouds due to the
proximity to the surface low and steeper low-level lapse rates,
mainly in central and north-central WI.

As the surface low and a mid-level trough move over MI on Thursday,
additional isolated showers and storms are anticipated Thursday
afternoon into the early evening, aided by up to 500 J/kg of CAPE.
However, no severe weather is expected.

Models continue to indicate a stark pattern change occurring this
weekend with an upper-level ridge building over the area before
breaking down sometime during the middle of next week. This would
bring more summer-like conditions to the area with increasing Gulf
moisture and potential ridge riders resulting in thunderstorms at
times, including possible severe storms at times. Will continue to
watch how this pattern change evolves over the coming days for any
impactful weather. At this point, the main takeaway is to plan on a
much more active weather pattern developing, with storm potential
not tied exclusively to peak heating of the day.

Fog Potential...Following the showers and storms this afternoon and
evening, some fog could occur late tonight, with best chances of
sharply reduced visibility over northern WI and maybe closer to Lake
Michigan. Agreement on this is not great though.

Temperatures...Below normal temperatures in the low to mid 70s and
comfortable humidity levels will continue through Friday.
Temperatures then gradually warm to normal on Saturday and above
normal on Sunday through early next week into the upper 80s to mid
90s due to the ridging pattern change. In addition to the much
warmer temperatures, dew points will also rise into the low to
possible mid 70s by Monday. If this pattern pans out, we could be
looking at a couple day stretch of heat-related impacts occurring.
This is already being highlighted with the NWS HeatRisk on Monday
with the Major (level 3 of 4) category and Major with some Extreme
(level 4 of 4) category on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 113 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Scattered to broken MVFR/low-end VFR cigs prevailed across the
region early this afternoon as isolated showers and storms began
to develop in portions of north-central and far northeast WI. The
isolated showers and storms will become more scattered in coverage
as the afternoon goes on and becoming less in coverage as the
sunsets. Decided to include TSRA with TEMPO groups at all TAF
sites when confidence is greatest. Otherwise, the showers are
anticipated to end between 02-06z Thu. Some stronger storms may
occur this afternoon and evening with hail and gusty winds being
the main threats. MVFR cigs/vsbys will also accompany the stronger
storms. Cigs are anticipated to drop to MVFR and IFR overnight
into Thursday morning. Fog may also develop late tonight across
north-central and far northeast WI, and along the lakeshore,
lifting by 12z Thu.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION.....Kruk
AVIATION.......Kruk

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
116 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-251830-
Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln-
Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano-
Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago-
Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County-
Southern Oconto County-
116 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms will diminish during the evening. A few
storms may be severe, producing large hail and damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Wednesday

There is a small chance for thunderstorms Thursday afternoon. Severe
weather is not expected.

The chance for thunderstorms will increase early next week. It is
too early to determine if storms will be severe, but the pattern
would support severe weather.

In addition, hot and humid conditions may build across the area
early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon.

LMZ521-522-541>543-251830-
The Bay of Green Bay south of a line from Cedar River MI to Rock
Island Passage-Lake Michigan from Washington Island to Sheboygan-
116 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Lake
Michigan and the waters of Green Bay.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are expected through late this evening.
Any thunderstorms will pose a hazard for mariners.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Wednesday

There is a small chance of thunderstorms Thursday afternoon. More
thunderstorms are possible Sunday through Tuesday. Any thunderstorms
will pose a hazard for mariners.

JM/Kruk

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
322 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     Rain             4 SE Rose Lawn          44.54N 88.25W
06/24/2026  M1.16 Inch       Outagamie          WI   Mesonet

            Mesonet station DW7584 Seymour.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
327 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

WIZ035-036-242130-
Portage WI-Wood WI-
327 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL PORTAGE AND NORTHEASTERN
WOOD COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

At 327 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles north of Wisconsin Rapids, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

The strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Wisconsin Rapids around 330 PM CDT. Lake Wazeecha around 340 PM
  CDT. Stevens Point around 350 PM CDT. Whiting around 355 PM CDT.
  Amherst around 425 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this strong thunderstorm include Rudolph,
Junction City, Biron, Meehan, Plover, Park Ridge, Coddington,
Stockton, Arnott and Keene.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4441 8994 4462 8994 4456 8925 4427 8929
TIME...MOT...LOC 2026Z 283DEG 21KT 4449 8983

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Kurimski

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
343 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0334 PM     Hail             Rudolph                 44.50N 89.81W
06/24/2026  M1.25 Inch       Wood               WI   Public

            Report from mPING: Half Dollar (1.25 in.).

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
403 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0317 PM     Hail             1 S Ashwaubenon         44.46N 88.07W
06/24/2026  M0.75 Inch       Brown              WI   Public

            Report via social media.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
403 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

WIZ021-242200-
Northern Oconto County WI-
403 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN OCONTO COUNTY UNTIL 5
PM CDT...

At 403 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Bear Paw Scout Camp, or 28 miles north of Shawano, moving southeast
at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

The strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Bear Paw Scout Camp and Mountain around 405 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this strong thunderstorm include Crooked
Lake, Breed, White Potato Lake and Klondike.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4514 8856 4527 8838 4523 8831 4520 8831
      4520 8825 4517 8819 4511 8819 4511 8812
      4508 8812 4502 8819 4503 8843 4508 8848
      4512 8848 4512 8853
TIME...MOT...LOC 2103Z 313DEG 11KT 4517 8842

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Kurimski

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
412 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

WIZ012-242145-
Florence WI-
412 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT FLORENCE COUNTY UNTIL 445 PM
CDT...

At 412 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Wisconsin Slough Natural Area, or 30 miles northeast of Crandon,
moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

The strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Tipler and Wisconsin Slough Natural Area around 415 PM CDT. Whisker
  Lake Wilderness around 435 PM CDT. Florence and Fern around 440 PM
  CDT.

Other locations impacted by this strong thunderstorm include Lost
Lake Campground.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 4579 8810 4579 8868 4601 8868 4599 8867
      4599 8862 4602 8860 4601 8859 4602 8851
      4599 8849 4600 8846 4598 8842 4599 8838
      4596 8833 4596 8825 4595 8819 4592 8810
      4588 8810 4587 8807 4582 8814
TIME...MOT...LOC 2112Z 270DEG 17KT 4594 8860

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

KS