Severe Thunderstorm Warning 52, NWS Green Bay, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
626 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and storms are expected to cross the area from
  west to east through this evening. Some storms could become
  strong or severe, with damaging winds and up to 1" hail being
  the main concerns.

- Warm moist air moving across Lake Michigan will bring a period
  of marine dense fog across the nearshore zones, which may affect
  boaters.

- Above normal temperatures persist for the next week. High
  temperatures in the 90s along with humidity will increase the
  potential for moderate to major heat- related impacts.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 146 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Storms This Afternoon/Evening...
Active weather will be the main focus of the forecast today.
Upstream development in Minnesota associated with a mid-level
shortwave is readily visible on both satellite and radar; and this
will be the main feature to watch for any stronger storm
development. Instability ahead of this feature has proved
sufficient for some isolated convection, mainly in the Upper
Peninsula, but will need to watch for at least isolated convection
developing out of the cumulus field across the northwoods. As the
storms progress into the region, modest lapse rates, weak shear,
and convergence along the shortwave could serve to provide a brief
hail threat, mainly limited further west where instability and
lapse rates will be greatest as the shortwave arrives. Wind then
becomes the more likely threat further east as scattered
thunderstorm activity heads into the and through the Fox Valley,
with CAMs suggesting the possibility of some brief bowing segments
embedded in scattered thunderstorm activity. Timing on storms
remains fairly similar to previous forecasts, with an arrival in
the mid to late afternoon for central and north-central Wisconsin,
and more of an evening timeframe for the Fox Valley. PWATs during
this time period remain fairly high (>1.5"), so moderate to heavy
rainfall will be possible within any convection., which may also
make for some fairly high localized rainfall totals for areas that
see the stronger storms. High end amounts could produce spots
with over an inch of rainfall.

Fog...
Fog over the marine zones will be in place this afternoon and
evening as the warm and moist airmass lifts northwards. Would
expected improvement as winds shift ahead of and along the
convection that will arrive from the west.

Temperatures...
Above normal temperatures will persist through the weekend into
next week, but a surge of even warmer temperatures will likely
(60-80% chance) bring high temperatures into the 90s by the middle
of next week. As this will be a several day stretch of warm high
temperatures and low temperatures also remain in the 60s, heat
related impacts are expected to see a major increase next week.
Warmest periods look to be Wednesday and Thursday afternoons,
where some of the higher potential heat indices are forecast to
exceed 100 degrees across portions of central Wisconsin to the Fox
Valley. Though still too soon to say with certainty, will need to
monitor the potential for headlines as we head into early next
week.

Extended... Accompanying the heat and humidity next week will be
a reservoir of instability that builds over much of the upper
Midwest. However, predictability for any rain/storm chances
remains low this far out as mid-level ridge sits right overhead.
Most of the ridge rider activity looks to stay off to our west,
so convective initiation in our neck of the woods would likely
hinge on smaller scale forcing mechanisms given the general
absence of upper support. This being said, cannot rule out
periodic chances for some stronger diurnal storms given the
magnitude of destabilization likely to occur during peak heating.

&&

.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 620 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

A round of showers and thunderstorms will move across the
region this evening, possibly lingering a few hours past
midnight. The line of thunderstorms has a history of producing
wind gusts of 25 to 35 knots as it moves across the area. There
is a around a 20% chance of wind gusts of 50 knots from KISW
to KY50 to KOSH. Hail up to one inch is also possible with
the stronger storms. After the rain ends, light winds and clearing
skies will allow for areas of fog to develop. Guidance suggest
winds will be in the 3 to 5 knot range, thus confidence is low
for any areas of dense fog, except near Lake Michigan where
dense marine fog will linger into Saturday morning. Fair
weather cumulus clouds expected on Saturday with west to
northwest winds. Do have winds backing southeast at KMTW
around 19z due to lake breeze boundary moving onshore.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION.....Uhlmann
AVIATION.......Eckberg

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
154 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-061900-
Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln-
Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano-
Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago-
Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County-
Southern Oconto County-
154 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered showers and storms are expected over much of the area
this afternoon and evening. Some storms could become strong or
severe, with damaging winds and up to 1" hail being the main
concerns.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Thunderstorms will be possible at times next week, with potential
for some stronger storms.

Increasing heat and humidity next week will result in heat indices
climbing into the 90s at most locations, with a few 100 degree
readings possible mid-week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to report any wind damage or hail to the
National Weather Service in Green Bay.

LMZ521-522-541>543-061900-
The Bay of Green Bay south of a line from Cedar River MI to Rock
Island Passage-Lake Michigan from Washington Island to Sheboygan-
154 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Lake
Michigan and the waters of Green Bay.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Dense fog along the nearshore areas may impact boating operations
during the afternoon. Fog is expected to improve once showers and
thunderstorms pass through the region.

Thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening. Any storm
could pose a hazard to mariners.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Thunderstorms will be possible at times this weekend into next
week. Any storm could pose a hazard to mariners.

Uhlmann

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