Severe Thunderstorm Warning 50, NWS Green Bay, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
626 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and storms are expected to cross the area from
  west to east through this evening. Some storms could become
  strong or severe, with damaging winds and up to 1" hail being
  the main concerns.

- Warm moist air moving across Lake Michigan will bring a period
  of marine dense fog across the nearshore zones, which may affect
  boaters.

- Above normal temperatures persist for the next week. High
  temperatures in the 90s along with humidity will increase the
  potential for moderate to major heat- related impacts.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 146 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Storms This Afternoon/Evening...
Active weather will be the main focus of the forecast today.
Upstream development in Minnesota associated with a mid-level
shortwave is readily visible on both satellite and radar; and this
will be the main feature to watch for any stronger storm
development. Instability ahead of this feature has proved
sufficient for some isolated convection, mainly in the Upper
Peninsula, but will need to watch for at least isolated convection
developing out of the cumulus field across the northwoods. As the
storms progress into the region, modest lapse rates, weak shear,
and convergence along the shortwave could serve to provide a brief
hail threat, mainly limited further west where instability and
lapse rates will be greatest as the shortwave arrives. Wind then
becomes the more likely threat further east as scattered
thunderstorm activity heads into the and through the Fox Valley,
with CAMs suggesting the possibility of some brief bowing segments
embedded in scattered thunderstorm activity. Timing on storms
remains fairly similar to previous forecasts, with an arrival in
the mid to late afternoon for central and north-central Wisconsin,
and more of an evening timeframe for the Fox Valley. PWATs during
this time period remain fairly high (>1.5"), so moderate to heavy
rainfall will be possible within any convection., which may also
make for some fairly high localized rainfall totals for areas that
see the stronger storms. High end amounts could produce spots
with over an inch of rainfall.

Fog...
Fog over the marine zones will be in place this afternoon and
evening as the warm and moist airmass lifts northwards. Would
expected improvement as winds shift ahead of and along the
convection that will arrive from the west.

Temperatures...
Above normal temperatures will persist through the weekend into
next week, but a surge of even warmer temperatures will likely
(60-80% chance) bring high temperatures into the 90s by the middle
of next week. As this will be a several day stretch of warm high
temperatures and low temperatures also remain in the 60s, heat
related impacts are expected to see a major increase next week.
Warmest periods look to be Wednesday and Thursday afternoons,
where some of the higher potential heat indices are forecast to
exceed 100 degrees across portions of central Wisconsin to the Fox
Valley. Though still too soon to say with certainty, will need to
monitor the potential for headlines as we head into early next
week.

Extended... Accompanying the heat and humidity next week will be
a reservoir of instability that builds over much of the upper
Midwest. However, predictability for any rain/storm chances
remains low this far out as mid-level ridge sits right overhead.
Most of the ridge rider activity looks to stay off to our west,
so convective initiation in our neck of the woods would likely
hinge on smaller scale forcing mechanisms given the general
absence of upper support. This being said, cannot rule out
periodic chances for some stronger diurnal storms given the
magnitude of destabilization likely to occur during peak heating.

&&

.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 620 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

A round of showers and thunderstorms will move across the
region this evening, possibly lingering a few hours past
midnight. The line of thunderstorms has a history of producing
wind gusts of 25 to 35 knots as it moves across the area. There
is a around a 20% chance of wind gusts of 50 knots from KISW
to KY50 to KOSH. Hail up to one inch is also possible with
the stronger storms. After the rain ends, light winds and clearing
skies will allow for areas of fog to develop. Guidance suggest
winds will be in the 3 to 5 knot range, thus confidence is low
for any areas of dense fog, except near Lake Michigan where
dense marine fog will linger into Saturday morning. Fair
weather cumulus clouds expected on Saturday with west to
northwest winds. Do have winds backing southeast at KMTW
around 19z due to lake breeze boundary moving onshore.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION.....Uhlmann
AVIATION.......Eckberg

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
154 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-061900-
Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln-
Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano-
Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago-
Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County-
Southern Oconto County-
154 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered showers and storms are expected over much of the area
this afternoon and evening. Some storms could become strong or
severe, with damaging winds and up to 1" hail being the main
concerns.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Thunderstorms will be possible at times next week, with potential
for some stronger storms.

Increasing heat and humidity next week will result in heat indices
climbing into the 90s at most locations, with a few 100 degree
readings possible mid-week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to report any wind damage or hail to the
National Weather Service in Green Bay.

LMZ521-522-541>543-061900-
The Bay of Green Bay south of a line from Cedar River MI to Rock
Island Passage-Lake Michigan from Washington Island to Sheboygan-
154 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Lake
Michigan and the waters of Green Bay.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Dense fog along the nearshore areas may impact boating operations
during the afternoon. Fog is expected to improve once showers and
thunderstorms pass through the region.

Thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening. Any storm
could pose a hazard to mariners.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Thunderstorms will be possible at times this weekend into next
week. Any storm could pose a hazard to mariners.

Uhlmann

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
711 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 E Antigo              45.15N 89.11W
06/05/2026  M45 MPH          Langlade           WI   AWOS

            Measured at the Langlade County Airport.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
711 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

WIZ035-036-060100-
Wood WI-Portage WI-
711 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN WOOD AND PORTAGE
COUNTIES THROUGH 800 PM CDT...

At 711 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles east of Wittenberg to 6 miles west of
Wisconsin Rapids. Movement was southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Stevens Point, Wisconsin Rapids, Whiting, and Lake Wazeecha around
  715 PM CDT.
  Amherst around 730 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Park Ridge,
Coddington, North Star, Kellner, Ellis, Nelsonville, Plover, Biron,
Custer, and Jordan.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4446 8984 4458 8985 4468 8927 4468 8923
      4425 8923 4424 8924 4425 9000
TIME...MOT...LOC 0011Z 293DEG 27KT 4480 8903 4436 8995

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MPC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
714 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

WIZ031-060100-
Shawano WI-
714 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SHAWANO COUNTY THROUGH 800 PM
CDT...

At 714 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northwest of Embarrass, or 9 miles west of Shawano, moving east
at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Shawano around 720 PM CDT.
  Navarino Wildlife Area around 730 PM CDT.
  Pulaski around 745 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Hofa Park, Zachow,
Tigerton, Landstad, Eland, Whitcomb, Lunds, Thornton, Gresham, and
Frazer Corners.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4459 8861 4468 8861 4468 8922 4488 8922
      4494 8885 4494 8873 4486 8874 4485 8825
      4459 8825
TIME...MOT...LOC 0014Z 291DEG 38KT 4477 8877

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MPC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
729 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

WIZ020-074-060130-
Southern Oconto County WI-Menominee WI-
729 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT MENOMINEE AND SOUTHERN OCONTO
COUNTIES THROUGH 830 PM CDT...

At 728 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms over Big Smokey Falls, or 15 miles north of Shawano,
moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Legend Lake and South Branch around 735 PM CDT.
  Gillett around 755 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Spruce, Intersection
Of Hwy 55 And County M, Underhill, Cullen, Stiles, Oconto Falls,
County Line, Sobieski, Lena, and South Chase.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4494 8759 4493 8767 4487 8764 4493 8768
      4490 8778 4455 8802 4468 8798 4468 8824
      4485 8825 4486 8871 4494 8874 4494 8883
      4512 8878 4512 8849 4503 8848 4502 8794
      4497 8776 4498 8773 4500 8756
TIME...MOT...LOC 0028Z 284DEG 26KT 4500 8862

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MPC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
731 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0725 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 NE Port Edwards       44.36N 89.84W
06/05/2026  M54 MPH          Wood               WI   ASOS

            Measured at the South Wood County Airport.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
734 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

WIZ037-060115-
Waupaca WI-
734 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT WAUPACA COUNTY THROUGH 815 PM
CDT...

At 733 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from near Clintonville to near
Hartman Creek State Park. Movement was southeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Waupaca, Clintonville, Embarrass, Chain O' Lakes-King, and Hartman
  Creek State Park around 740 PM CDT.
  New London around 750 PM CDT.
  Fremont around 755 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Rural, Buckbee,
Fitzgerald Corners, Schmidt Corner, Lind Center, Northport,
Scandinavia, Adams Beach, Sheridan, and Northland.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4425 8923 4468 8922 4468 8861 4459 8861
      4459 8874 4424 8874
TIME...MOT...LOC 0033Z 296DEG 38KT 4466 8883 4436 8928

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MPC