Tornado Warning 23, NWS Goodland, KS

395 
WWUS53 KGLD 200051
SVSGLD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
651 PM MDT Sat Sep 19 2026

COC017-KSC199-200100-
/O.EXP.KGLD.TO.W.0023.000000T0000Z-260920T0045Z/
Cheyenne CO-Wallace KS-
651 PM MDT Sat Sep 19 2026

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL CHEYENNE COUNTY IN EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO AND SOUTHWESTERN WALLACE COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS HAS EXPIRED...

The tornado threat has diminished and the Tornado Warning has been
cancelled. However, large hail and damaging winds remain likely and a
Severe Thunderstorm Warning remains in effect for the area.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM MDT for
east central Colorado...and west central Kansas.

Remember, a Severe Thunderstorm Warning still remains in effect for 
Cheyenne and Wallace counties.

&&

LAT...LON 3874 10210 3893 10211 3889 10179 3870 10180
      3870 10192
TIME...MOT...LOC 0050Z 277DEG 24KT 3883 10191 

$$

Rhoades/CA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
539 PM MDT Sat Sep 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooling trend starts today!

- Scattered showers possible throughout the day before strong to
  severe storms this evening and overnight. All hazards are
  possible, so be prepared to act!

- Strong to severe storms may return Sunday afternoon and
  evening, with all hazards being possible again.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 100 PM MDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Upper low over Idaho this morning will move into Wyoming
tonight. Lead shortwave will eject from the base of the low and
across northern Colorado this afternoon and move through the
area tonight. Thunderstorms have already developed in the Front
Range southwest of Denver, and storms will continue to develop
across northeast Colorado this afternoon. The shortwave is
enhancing deep layer shear which is 30-40 kts. Instability is
fairly limited for the initial storms, but as they move
eastward it will increase to 1000-1500 j/kg through about 02z
before decreasing after sunset. Initial discrete cells in
Colorado will likely be supercells capable of large hail of
golf ball size or larger, damaging wind gust in excess of 60
mph, and brief tornadoes. CAMs show the storms quickly merging
into a line as they approach the Kansas border area, with a
bowing signature indicating damaging wind gusts will be possible
as it moves through the area this evening. Recent warm
temperatures and lack of widespread rainfall has primed the
soils for a risk of blowing dust and dust storms, as occurred
yesterday with an isolated storm. The blowing dust may be more
widespread as the line moves through tonight. The main line
looks to move through the area by 06z, but additional storms
will develop overnight, mainly south of Interstate 70. These
will be driven by a southerly low level jet and likely elevated,
posing a minimal threat for small hail as MUCAPE will be less
than 500 j/kg at that time. Low clouds and patchy fog will also
develop overnight.

The fog should burn off relatively early Sunday morning, but
models show the low clouds persisting well into the afternoon
due to light upslope surface winds. This will impact not only
temperatures, but instability and therefore convective chances
Sunday afternoon and evening. Best chances for some clearing
will be in eastern Colorado, particularly near the Palmer
Divide and possibly the Cheyenne Ridge, where CAMs show discrete
cells developing around 21z. Deep layer shear will be favorable
for supercells due to a 500 mb speed max moving through the
base of the upper low now in the Nebraska panhandle, resulting
in 0-6 km shear of 40-50 kts in eastern Colorado. East to
southeasterly storm motions would take them into far northeast
Colorado, with an accompanying risk for large hail, damaging
winds, blowing dust and dust storms, and tornadoes. It is less
certain how far east they will be maintained because of the
influence of the low clouds and decreasing instability, but
shear will be more than adequate through the early evening, and
there is some risk for a supercell in the Colorado and Kansas
border area through about 03z before dissipating. The low level
jet appears to be active once again late in the evening and
overnight, with scattered elevated convection generally south of
Interstate 70 and MUCAPE 500-1000 j/kg. Given the saturated air
mass and light winds, would expect the low clouds and patchy
fog to return Sunday night into Monday morning.

For Monday, a zonal flow will develop over the top of a ridge
centered over Texas. At the surface, upslope flow continues.
However, CAMs show only isolated convection developing, probably
due to lack of forcing. Also, instability is forecast to be
weak at less than 200 j/kg. As a result, precipitation chances
will be slim to none and severe weather is not anticipated.

On Tuesday, the upper ridge over Texas will amplify into the
Central Plains. The axis will be just east of the area,
resulting in southwest flow over the High Plains. This has been
a familiar pattern through much of September. Scattered storms
will develop in southeast Colorado and then move northeast into
the area Tuesday night, but weakening and dissipating as they
do so with loss of daytime heating. The probability of severe
weather will be low and limited to gusty winds.

Temperatures through the period will be below normal with highs
generally in the upper 60s to lower 70s and lows mainly in the
50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 226 PM MDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Beginning Wednesday, a weak ridge should begin to develop over the
central plains, slowly propagating to the east through Saturday.
Ensemble guidance is in general agreement on the ridge axis
positioning to the east of our county warning area (CWA) which
should give us upper level flow from the southwest as we head into
next weekend. Higher confidence exists at the moment of this ridge
weakening through Saturday, bringing zonal westerly flow aloft to
the region during the weekend. A weak upper-level jet streak should
be in place Wednesday, ushering in breezy conditions to the area.
Confidence is medium that this feature will move out of the area by
Thursday. At the surface, weak surface low pressure is forecasted to
influence the area through Friday. Simultaneously, a frontal
boundary moves through the area Wednesday which should give us
boosted chances for showers and thunderstorms. Chances for
precipitation the rest of the week will be dependent on shortwave
passages through the ridging system.

With respect to Probability of Precipitation (PoPs), forecast
guidance displays 25-40% Wednesday during frontal passage. Eastern
portions of the CWA may see up to 50% PoPs overnight into Thursday
morning as the front moves off to the east. Heading towards the
weekend, 15-30% PoPs for Thursday as well as 25-45% Friday are
highlighted by guidance. 15-30% is the current probability range
Saturday as the overall pattern becomes zonal. Instability and bulk
shear are forecasted to be low during this long-term period, making
any chance for precipitation limited to showers and thunderstorms.

High temperatures are expected to be near the seasonal average for
this time of the year for the Tri-State area heading into the
weekend. Highs in the upper 70/low 80s are anticipated for the
entire four-day forecast period. Surface winds should start off
breezy on Wednesday at around 15-25 mph in the eastern and central
parts of our CWA and 25-30 mph in eastern Colorado, gusting up to 40
mph. Winds should die down to a general 5-10 mph Thursday
accompanied by gusts up to 15 mph. Finally winds likely bounce back
a bit to 10-20 mph Friday and Saturday with gusting up to 25
mph.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 538 PM MDT Sat Sep 19 2026

For KGLD, thunderstorms are expected to impact the terminal through
at least 04Z. After 04Z, confidence in thunderstorm coverage
decreased, but KGLD could still have scattered storms affect the
terminal through around 09Z. Gusty and erratic winds are possible
with any thunderstorms. After storms exit the area, fog is forecast
to move in from the west around 11Z and lift around 15Z. Low
ceilings and reduced visibilities are expected from storms and
fog. In absence of storms, winds will overall be light and
variable.

For KMCK, winds will primarily be out of the northwest and mostly
under 10 knots. Showers and thunderstorms moving in from the west
around 03Z. Storm activity may linger around KMCK through 08Z
causing reduced ceilings and visibilities. Low ceilings will remain
after storms have left the area, but will lift towards the end of
the TAF period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...024/AMP
AVIATION...Rhoades

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
331 PM MDT Sat Sep 19 2026

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-202145-
Yuma-Kit Carson-Cheyenne CO-Cheyenne KS-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-
Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-
Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
331 PM MDT Sat Sep 19 2026 /431 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 10 PM MDT/11 PM CDT
for areas generally along and south of Interstate 70 and west of
Highway 25 in northwest Kansas and northeast Colorado.

Thunderstorms will develop in northeast Colorado after 4 PM MT this
afternoon, then move across the remainder of the Tri State area this
evening. Initial storms in Colorado will be capable of producing
hail of golf ball size or larger, damaging wind gusts of 60 mph or
greater and brief tornadoes. The storms will merge into a line as
they enter northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska between 6 and
8 PM MT, which will move through the remainder of the area through
midnight MT. During this time, the primary hazards will be damaging
wind gusts of 60 mph or greater, reduced visibility in blowing dust
and localized dust storms. Travel may become hazardous due to blowing
dust.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

There is a 15% chance for severe storms Sunday afternoon and
evening. Main hazards include 70 MPH wind gusts, 1 inch hail, a
brief tornado, and flash flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Goodland KS
423 PM MDT Sat Sep 19 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0416 PM     Hail             2 WSW Flagler           39.29N 103.10W
09/19/2026  E1.25 Inch       Kit Carson         CO   Broadcast Media

            Report of 1-1.25 inch soft/accumulating
            hail.

&&

eer

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Goodland KS
442 PM MDT Sat Sep 19 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     Hail             3 E Flagler             39.29N 103.01W
09/19/2026  M1.75 Inch       Kit Carson         CO   Public

            Public reported golf ball size hail near
            Flagler, CO.

&&

AMP

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Goodland KS
559 PM MDT Sat Sep 19 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0554 PM     Hail             7 SSW Bethune           39.21N 102.49W
09/19/2026  M2.00 Inch       Kit Carson         CO   Trained Spotter

            Spotter reports measured 2-2.25 inch hail
            near Bethune, CO.

&&

AMP