Severe Thunderstorm Warning 110, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
110 PM MDT Tue Jun 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storms this afternoon and evening may produce winds up to 80
  MPH, 2 inch hail, blowing dust and dust storms, and a brief
  tornado or two.

- A Red Flag Warning has been issued for eastern Colorado this
  afternoon, thanks to a combination of dry conditions and
  winds gusting around 35-45 MPH. A Fire Weather Watch is also
  in effect for Wednesday in Colorado.

- Dry during the day Wednesday, but a chance for elevated storms
  Wednesday night, mainly in Nebraska.

- Dry and cooler on Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 100 PM MDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Strong height falls are indicated today ahead of a trough axis
moving into the central and northern Rockies. At the surface, a
dry line will be surging out of southeast Colorado and across
the area this afternoon, with gusty southwest winds and dew
points falling into the 30s and 40s. Scattered thunderstorms
are expected to develop first in Colorado through 21z and
quickly move northeast into the remainder of the Tri State area.
Initial development behind the dry line will be in a weakly
unstable, hot and dry environment with very favorable DCAPE
values of 1000-2000 j/kg. CAMs continue to show wind gusts near
these high-based thunderstorms of 65+ kts. Despite recent
rainfall, the hot and windy conditions today should be enough to
dry the top soil, and combined with the magnitude of the winds
blowing dust and dust storms may develop. In addition, as the
storms move east across the dry line, moisture and instability
will rapidly increase, with up to 5000 j/kg forecast in the
extreme northeast part of the area (McCook to Norton and Hill
City) and up to 40 kts of deep layer shear. While the window
will be short as the dry line continues to move east through
01-02z, storms that reach that environment may become supercells
capable of large hail, damaging winds, and brief tornadoes.
Storms should move quickly out of the area by 02z to the east,
with any lingering showers or isolated thunderstorms afterwards
posing only a limited wind threat.

Tonight, a cold front will move through the area with gusty
northwest winds by 12z. The cold front continues south through
the morning, ending up in southwest Kansas by Wednesday
afternoon. Will see another surge of drier air in Colorado
during the afternoon with dew points in the teens and 20s
dropping relative humidity to around 10%. Winds somewhat
marginal but HRRR does show pockets of 20-30 kt gusts, so issued
a Fire Weather Watch for Wednesday afternoon/early evening in
Colorado. Convective initiation will be mostly along the front
to the south and not moving this way, though may see a few
isolated afternoon showers/virga in northeast Colorado.
Wednesday night, the 3-km NAM and RRFS suggest elevated
convection will develop in southwest Nebraska with a
strengthening low level jet and associated isentropic lift.
Those models show a brief window between 07-10z where MUCAPE of
up to 3000 j/kg will be present before moving to the east and
weakening. So, if an elevated storm develops could see a large
hail threat.

On Thursday, will see a shortwave moving through the zonal flow
fairly early in the day followed by more of a zonal flow in the
afternoon. Little to no instability is forecast with dew points
in the 20s and 30s, so will keep it dry. However, with those
low dew points afternoon relative humidity minimums will drop
well into the teens. Gusty northwest winds Thursday morning
diminish Thursday afternoon and may not overlap the lowest
humidity for fire weather concerns, though it will be a close
call. Temperatures on Thursday cool compared to recent days with
highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s and lows Thursday night
ranging from the upper 40s in Colorado to lower 50s in Kansas
and Nebraska.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 103 PM MDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Starting the extended period Friday, broad troughing is forecast to
be in place across northern portions of the country. At the surface,
high pressure is forecast to be in place across eastern portions of
Kansas into Western Missouri and an inverted surface trough begins
to nudge into the area from the west. This is forecast to increase
the pressure gradient leading to another day of breezy wind
potential. Wind gusts of 35-45 mph are currently forecast, but
sustained winds may be the bigger story across eastern Colorado and
into far northwest Kansas as a 25 knot jet is forecast to be in
place and weakening 700mb flow limiting the stronger wind gust
potential. Warm temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s are again
forecast resulting in lowering humidity into the mid teens across
eastern Colorado resulting in fire weather concerns again. The
location of the dryline that day will be the deciding factor if we
have fire weather concerns as the NAM which typically handles
dryline placement keeps the entire CWA in the moist sector. If this
is the case then we will again need to monitor for isolated
severe weather potential during the evening moving in from the
west.

Saturday, synoptic pattern remains the same. The difference is at
the surface as a front is forecast to be in place across northern
portions of the area currently as depicted by the GFS. The ECMWF has
cold air advection throughout the day versus the GFS with the above
mentioned slower front. If the GFS verifies severe weather would be
a concern with straight line hodographs in place along with 2500
j/kg of MUCAPE and wind shear around 35 knots supporting splitting
supercells. Future shift will need to continue to keep an eye on
this and see if guidance can agree on a solution.

Sunday and into the early part of the work week does appear to be
cooler in the wake of the cold front (whenever that does pass
through) with highs currently forecast in the 70s. An active
pattern does look to continue to persist with NW flow in place
across the area and some qpf signal seen in ensembles. It is
still too far out to tell for sure if there is any severe
potential or if just non impactful rain would occur.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1118 AM MDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Scattered high-based thunderstorms will move across the area
between 21-03z this afternoon. These thunderstorms may bring
briefly gusty winds and reductions in visibility in blowing dust
if they move across a terminal. Otherwise, VFR expected to
prevail.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ252>254.
NE...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...024

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
238 PM MDT Tue Jun 9 2026

COZ090>092-102045-
Yuma-Kit Carson-Cheyenne CO-
238 PM MDT Tue Jun 9 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A Red Flag Warning has been issued for eastern Colorado today. Winds
up to 45 MPH and dry conditions may lead to rapid fire growth. A
Fire Weather Watch is also in effect for Wednesday afternoon.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 9 PM MT this evening.
Thunderstorms this afternoon and evening may produce winds up to 60
MPH, 1 inch hail, blowing dust and localized dust storms, primarily
in the mid- afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

A Fire Weather Watch is in effect Wednesday afternoon and evening for
low humidity, gusty west winds up to 25 mph and dry fuels.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-102045-
Cheyenne KS-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-
Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
238 PM MDT Tue Jun 9 2026 /338 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska and
northwest Kansas.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 9 PM MT/10 PM CT this
evening. Thunderstorms this afternoon and evening may produce winds
up to 80 MPH, 2 inch hail, blowing dust and localized dust storms.
Storms will start in eastern Colorado in the mid afternoon and
quickly move to the northeast.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Thunderstorms Wednesday night may produce large hail and damaging
winds between 9 PM and 3 AM CT, mainly in southwest Nebraska.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

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