Severe Thunderstorm Warning 77, NWS Grand Forks, ND

690 
WWUS53 KFGF 042250
SVSFGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
550 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

MNC005-027-111-042330-
/O.CON.KFGF.SV.W.0077.000000T0000Z-260704T2330Z/
Clay MN-Otter Tail MN-Becker MN-
550 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN CLAY...NORTHWESTERN OTTER TAIL AND SOUTHWESTERN
BECKER COUNTIES...

At 550 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Rollag, or 18
miles west of Detroit Lakes, moving south at 15 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Hawley, Lake Park, Dunvilla, Cormorant, Dale, and Rollag.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4685 9636 4695 9611 4665 9593 4656 9625
TIME...MOT...LOC 2250Z 353DEG 14KT 4681 9623 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

DJR

387 
WWUS53 KFGF 042257
SVSFGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
557 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

MNC005-027-111-042307-
/O.CAN.KFGF.SV.W.0077.000000T0000Z-260704T2330Z/
Clay MN-Otter Tail MN-Becker MN-
557 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN CLAY...
NORTHWESTERN OTTER TAIL AND SOUTHWESTERN BECKER COUNTIES IS
CANCELLED...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However, small hail and
gusty winds are still possible with this thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 4685 9636 4695 9611 4665 9593 4656 9625
TIME...MOT...LOC 2252Z 339DEG 11KT 4679 9622 

$$

DJR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
240 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered t-storms today until sunset over the
  area. There is a 1 out of 5 risk of brief severe storms in
  southeastern North Dakota and west central Minnesota. But any
  storm is capable of heavy rain, lightning, and small hail.

- Level 1 out of 5 severe storm risk Monday as a frontal
  boundary moves through.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

...Synopsis...

Near zonal flow aloft over the Northern Plains, with a good
shortwave over the southern Red River currently providing some
lift for storms developing in west central Minnesota. The weak
frontal boundary/wind shift draped across that same area will
start to wash out tonight as lee troughing gets going to our
west. South to southeasterly winds will continue into Sunday as
upper ridging builds into the Plains and upper midwest. A
shortwave riding over the top of the ridge through southern
Canada will help push a front back south into ND by Monday. A
stronger shortwave comes through the Dakotas on Tuesday, pushing
the frontal boundary down into our southern counties.
Northwesterly flow aloft west up for mid to late week, with
several of the model solutions showing an embedded shortwave
coming through on Friday.

...Thunderstorm chances this afternoon and early evening...

Most of the development so far has been in west central MN ahead
of the shortwave, and with good heating boosting ML CAPE to over
2000 J/kg, several of the cells have gained enough height to
produce some 1 inch hail even with negligible shear. Any severe
threat from a individual cell will be short lived as they come
up and then right back down. Some localized street flooding is a
possibility with slow movement of storms and PWAT values over
1.5 inches. Further north and west, there is less instability
and deep moisture convergence is less impressive, and shear is
not any better. Could see some lightning and brief downpours,
maybe even some pea sized hail from any isolated cells that
develop this afternoon. A few of the CAMs show storms
redeveloping over the southern Red River Valley around 00Z, with
HREF showing around a 40 percent chance for some lightning. Not
a slam dunk but will have to keep an eye on general
thunderstorms for a while. By sunset, most of our instability will
be on a downward trend and the main shortwave will be pushing
east. HREF probabilities of thunder are on a rapid downward
trend after 03Z, but may have to watch a few spots at fireworks
time for any lingering convection.

...Severe chances Sunday night and again Monday...

The shortwave coming over the top of the upper ridge late Sunday
could bring some storms to north central ND that could clip our
far northwestern counties. HREF updraft helicity probabilities
are not too impressive with only a few members showing any
paintballs in Towner county, but can't rule out a few isolated
cells. Better, but still marginal chances for severe storms will
be Monday as the frontal boundary sags south into our area.
Ensemble mean CAPE according to the NBM gets over 2000 J/kg by
Monday afternoon and deep layer shear increases to 35 to 40 kts.
Still a few days away, but if the trends that the NBM shows hold
Monday looks like a fairly busy convective day.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

VFR conditions at most of the TAF sites, except KBJI which is
being impacted by thunderstorms and vis has dropped down to MVFR
for a time. Convection will continue to redevelop around KBJI
through the afternoon, and could stray as far west as KTVF or
KFAR, but less certain for those spots so will keep any CB
mention out for now. Convection at KBJI will taper off around
sunset, with all sites VFR. Light and variable winds for most of
the TAF sites will begin to pick up out of the southeast by
tomorrow morning at KDVL, but speeds should remain below 10
kts.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...JR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
330 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

MNZ002-003-017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ039-049-052-053-052030-
Norman-Clay-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-South Clearwater-Hubbard-
West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-
Wadena-Grant-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland-
330 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms in
southeastern North Dakota and west central Minnesota through
sunset. The main hazards will be brief hail to 1 inch, heavy rain,
and lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Level 1 out of 5 severe storm risk Monday as a frontal boundary
moves through.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required this evening.

MNZ001-004>009-013>016-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-054-
052030-
West Polk-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-West Marshall-
East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-East Polk-
North Clearwater-Towner-Cavalier-Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-
Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks-Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-
Western Walsh-
330 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms expected across the
region through sunset. The main hazard will be lightning and brief
downpours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

A few isolated storms could move into Towner county from north
central North Dakota late Sunday. Quarter sized hail and 60 mph
winds are the main threat.

There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Monday.
The main hazards will be ping pong ball sized hail and 70 mph
winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1134 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

MNZ017-024-041700-
Hubbard MN-South Beltrami MN-
1134 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL HUBBARD COUNTY
THROUGH NOON CDT...

At 1134 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Wilton, or near Bemidji, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Bemidji, Wilton, Lavinia, Rosby, Nary, and Lake Bemidji.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4737 9508 4755 9505 4756 9470 4732 9473
TIME...MOT...LOC 1634Z 275DEG 17KT 4746 9496

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Lynch

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
136 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0124 PM     Hail             1 SE New York Mills     46.51N 95.36W
07/04/2026  M1.00 Inch       Otter Tail         MN   Trained Spotter

            Storm spotter reports quarter sized hail
            southeast of New York Mills, MN.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
208 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0149 PM     Hail             3 NW Park Rapids        46.95N 95.09W
07/04/2026  M0.75 Inch       Hubbard            MN   Public

            Report from mPING: Dime (0.75 in.).

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
216 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

MNZ024-028-031-032-042000-
Wadena MN-East Otter Tail MN-East Becker MN-Hubbard MN-
216 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN HUBBARD...
NORTHWESTERN WADENA...NORTHEASTERN OTTER TAIL AND SOUTHEASTERN BECKER
COUNTIES THROUGH 300 PM CDT...

At 216 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Butler, or 25 miles east of Detroit Lakes, moving northeast at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Park Rapids, Menahga, Sebeka, Osage, Hubbard, Wolf Lake, and
Hillview.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4660 9531 4661 9556 4697 9529 4686 9488
      4659 9511
TIME...MOT...LOC 1916Z 208DEG 5KT 4674 9532

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Lynch

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
241 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0156 PM     Hail             5 W Hillview            46.69N 95.36W
07/04/2026  M1.00 Inch       Otter Tail         MN   Broadcast Media

            Time estimated via radar.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
506 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

MNZ001>003-008-013>015-022-027-029-030-050000-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-East Marshall-Pennington-Red Lake-East Polk-
Mahnomen-West Becker-Wilkin-West Otter Tail-
Including the cities of Crookston, East Grand Forks, Ada,
Halstad, Moorhead, Newfolden, Middle River, Thief River Falls,
Red Lake Falls, Fosston, Mahnomen, Detroit Lakes, Breckenridge,
and Fergus Falls
506 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

...FUNNEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...

Showers and thunderstorms have developed across
parts of northwest Minnesota and are interacting with a weak
frontal zone stretching from eastern Marshall County to western
Otter Tail County. This is resulting in conditions favorable for
funnel clouds with any thunderstorm that develop. These types of
funnel clouds are usually short lived, however, they can
occasionally touch the ground and cause minor damage. Therefore,
if you see a funnel cloud, take cover immediately.

DJR