Severe Thunderstorm Warning 75, NWS Grand Forks, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1242 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered t-storms today until sunset over the
  area. Better organized storms and risk of brief severe storms
  will be in Minnesota. But any storm is capable of heavy rain
  and at least small hail.

- Level 1 out of 5 severe storm risk Monday as a frontal
  boundary moves through.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Convection continues to develop in the Bemidji/Park Rapids area
with a weak stalled boundary nearby and some ML CAPE around 1500
J/kg. No shear to work with, so cells are going up and right
back down. A couple could pulse up this afternoon to drop some
one inch hail, but think main threats will be heavy rain and
lightning. Adjusted POPs to try and capture current radar trends
and possible redevelopment later this afternoon.

UPDATE
Issued at 442 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Tweeked pops thru 18z Sat. Did keep isold -tsra in SE ND into
parts of MN. One storm did develop south of Ada MN and is now
north of Mahnomen and strong enough for SPS due to potential
hail to 3/4 inch based on height of 50 dbz and also as given by
MESH algorithm in awips. Other than that did go more general but
lower pops but smoothed out than NBM so to have at least a 20
pop for all of the forecast area this afternoon. Lack of
organized forcing and broad instability will mean there is a
chance most areas, but storm coverage remaining isold-scattered.
0-6 km shear is weak (20 kts) and thus will see cores grow and
then re-develop along storm outflows. Brief severe storms may
occur over parts of north central/west central MN where a weak
sfc boundary will be located from northeast into west central
MN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

...Synopsis...

Broad, weak upper troughing in the Northern Rockies and Northern
Plains will provide transient forcing aloft, while also keeping
sufficient moisture and instability for thunderstorm chances
this and tomorrow afternoons into early evenings. Coverage is
expected to be isolated to scattered given lackluster forcing
overall. A few storms may be strong to severe, mainly in
Minnesota, this afternoon. While there is medium chance for
storms Fourth of July afternoon/early evening, strong to severe
storms are not anticipated at this time - mainly due to lack of
shear and better forcing.

Into next week, this upper troughing flattens with the approach
of an upper jet into the Pacific Northwest, concurrent with
upper ridging attempting to build in the Southwest by late next
week. This places the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest toward
the northern periphery of the eventual upper ridging. This
pattern shift starts with a cold front to move through the
region Monday, offering perhaps more widespread coverage of
showers and storms. This includes potential for storms to be
strong to perhaps severe, although more likely to be on the
lower end-severe if at all.

Embedded impulses of energy moving through the flow mid to late
next week will offer almost daily opportunities for showers and
storms, although uncertainty exists in moisture availability
for thunderstorms behind Monday's cold front. This is also
nearing the end of the predictability horizon with respect to
thunderstorm details.

...Strong to severe storm potential this afternoon...

SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook lowered coverage of the level 1 of
5 risk area, confined now to portions of north-central, west-
central MN, and southern Red River Valley. Isolated strong to
severe storms remain possible within this area, capable of small
hail up to 1 inch and gusts to 40-55 mph. Warm low level and
slightly above average overall moisture availability may allow
for brief heavy rain, potentially leading to isolated minor
flooding - especially if this occurs over urban area (e.g.
Bemidji).

This area generally holds today's thunderstorm chances with
help from low level convergence concurrent with weak, transient
mid level wave moving northeast out of SD. With overall
instability will be on the weak to moderate side and little if
any shear to organize storms, storms are expected to follow the
mean flow toward the east-northeast, with tendency to also
propagate toward their outflow boundaries. Additionally,
expecting storms to behave in a pulse-like fashion.

...Fourth of July...

Weak to perhaps moderate instability still should remain across
the region for the 4th of July, but the upper flow pattern
again is very weak. Due to the ongoing festivities and outdoor
activities for the 4th, we do want to note that there is the
potential for heavy rainfall/showers and thunderstorms. However,
there is very high uncertainty in the scope of showers and
thunderstorms as this will largely depend on antecedent
convection dropping outflow boundaries/convergent zones.

With the lack of flow aloft as well, storms may be stationary
in some locations, so minor flooding couldn't be ruled out,
especially if this occurs over urban landscapes. Overall this
carries very low predictability. There is currently a 40%
chance of showers/storms by the afternoon across the entire
area, although the spatial extent of storms should remain
scattered.

Severe storm potential is very low thanks to very weak shear
and lack of better forcing.

Heat impacts are not expected with temperatures in the 70s to
low 80s, dew points in the low 60s, and generally partly to
mostly cloudy skies keeping sun-related impacts low.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

VFR conditions at most of the TAF sites, except KBJI which is
being impacted by thunderstorms and vis has dropped down to MVFR
for a time. Convection will continue to redevelop around KBJI
through the afternoon, and could stray as far west as KTVF or
KFAR, but less certain for those spots so will keep any CB
mention out for now. Convection at KBJI will taper off around
sunset, with all sites VFR. Light and variable winds for most of
the TAF sites will begin to pick up out of the southeast by
tomorrow morning at KDVL, but speeds should remain below 10
kts.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

UPDATE...JR
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...JR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
459 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-051000-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Cavalier-
Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks-
Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland-
Western Walsh-
459 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will occur today into the
evening up to sunset. Any storm is capable of producing brief
heavy rain and small hail. A few storms may become severe in parts
of west central and north central Minnesota where hail to 1 inch
and wind gusts up to 60 mph may occur.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Monday
as a front moves thru the area. Hail to 1 inch and 60 mph winds
are the threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required today.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
832 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

MNZ017-041400-
South Beltrami MN-
832 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN BELTRAMI COUNTY
THROUGH 900 AM CDT...

At 832 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms over Puposky, or 15 miles north of Bemidji, moving east
at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Tenstrike, Nebish, and Puposky.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4761 9462 4759 9503 4776 9509 4785 9478
      4785 9471
TIME...MOT...LOC 1332Z 256DEG 12KT 4770 9496

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Lynch

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1134 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

MNZ017-024-041700-
Hubbard MN-South Beltrami MN-
1134 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL HUBBARD COUNTY
THROUGH NOON CDT...

At 1134 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Wilton, or near Bemidji, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Bemidji, Wilton, Lavinia, Rosby, Nary, and Lake Bemidji.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4737 9508 4755 9505 4756 9470 4732 9473
TIME...MOT...LOC 1634Z 275DEG 17KT 4746 9496

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Lynch