Alert archive / Minnesota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2026
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 112, NWS Grand Forks, ND
NWS Grand Forks, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 17, 2026, 3:45 AM CDT for Lake of the Woods County, Roseau County, Minnesota. It was in force for 43 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 17, 2026, 3:45 AM CDT (08:45 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 17, 2026, 4:28 AM CDT
- In force
- 43 min
- Issued by
- NWS Grand Forks, ND
- Area
- Storm-based polygon
- Hail
- 1.0 in
- Wind
- 60.0 mph
The radar
The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 201 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:47 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Minneapolis, MN (KMPX), launched 00:00Z, 8.8 hours before the alert went out and 456 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 905 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -3 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1657 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 20 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 3 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- -1 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.1
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 16, 11:19 PM CDT, 4 hours 26 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
- Wildfire smoke continues to affect air quality.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 16, 11:19 PM CDT, 4 hours 26 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1119 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Wildfire smoke continues to affect air quality. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 238 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026 ...Synopsis... The upper level ridging has flattened/weakened a bit, but additional upper waves are rounding the upper ridge. Ensemble guidance agrees that through the weekend and into early next week the upper ridge axis will be west of the region and then flatten early next week as a stronger system propagates through Canada, bringing cooler temperatures to the northern plains. There does not appear to be any stronger synoptic signals for rainfall/storms given the anticipated pattern, although mesoscale forcing could provide scattered storms here or there. ...Severe Risk This Evening... Interesting set up is developing for severe potential this evening, with what appears to be a triple point across northcentral North Dakota. MLCAPE near 3000 J/KG and effective bulk shear 30-35 knots will lead to organized storms. Storm mode expected to be discrete given lack of strong synoptic forcing and limited threat area. CAM guidance indicates convective initiation 5-7p. Initial development will likely be supercellular along with all associated supercell hazards (hail, wind gusts, tornado). Regarding tornado potential, the triple point plus any storm that anchors to the warm front should experience increased SRH favorable for tornado development. Uncertainty increases with how the event will evolve after initial development, although in these situations storm tipsily attempt to work into the stronger instability meaning the threat area for the surfaced based severe potential will remain across northeast North Dakota - and be mainly diurnally driven with weakening toward 11p or so. The 1 of 5 risk from SPC is based on anticipated coverage. Later into the night, an area of strong synoptic forming/warm air advection will bring an elevated severe hail threat to northwest Minnesota (likely after midnight). ...Heat Impacts... Frontal boundary has set up from west to east across the region, with temperatures low-mid 70s to the north of the boundary and low 90s to the south of the boundary. With dew points around 70F south of the boundary, heat impacts will continue into the evening. After today, temperatures will be a bit cooler (although limited heat impacts will remain for sensitive groups). ...Air Quality... As winds become southerly and then westerly overnight, smoke should move out of the area. That said, forecasting where wildfire smoke will go is pretty difficult, and as the flow turns from the north tomorrow, smoke could return, although not sure how impactful it would be if it does. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1118 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026 Overall, the main aviation impacts will be between the 08z-15z timeframe wherein lower cloud bases between 1500-4000 ft may arise in eastern North Dakota. Cloud coverage may be enough to create MVFR ceilings at DVL and this has been a persistent signal so it was added to this routine TAF issuance. Conditions improve through the day after sunrise, eventually becoming VFR with mostly northwesterly winds as a front sweeps through the region. Gusts will peak around 20-30 knots in the afternoon, diminishing close to sunset late in the TAF period. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && DISCUSSION...TG AVIATION...Perroux
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 17, 2:28 AM CDT, 1 hour 17 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 228 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026 MNZ001>004-007-014-015-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024- 026>030-038-039-049-052>054-180730- West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-West Marshall-Red Lake-East Polk- Mahnomen-South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin- West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Cavalier- Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks- Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland- Western Walsh- 228 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota. .DAY ONE...Tonight The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated today. MNZ005-006-008-009-013-016-017-180730- Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington- North Clearwater-South Beltrami- 228 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northwest Minnesota. .DAY ONE...Tonight Scattered thunderstorms expected across the region. The main hazard will be lightning, with some of the stronger storms producing small hail. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated today.
The office that day
Everything else NWS Grand Forks, ND issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 17, 3:53 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Lake of the Woods | 67 min |
| Jul 17, 4:14 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Lake of the Woods | 36 min |
| Jul 16, 8:10 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | FGF | Benson | 50 min |
| Jul 16, 8:23 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Benson | 52 min |
| Jul 16, 8:24 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Benson | 51 min |
| Jul 16, 8:35 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | FGF | Benson | 40 min |
| Jul 16, 9:12 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | FGF | Benson | 33 min |
| Jul 16, 10:21 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | FGF | Eddy | 39 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Minnesota, 2026Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2026
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.