Tornado Warning 17, NWS Grand Forks, ND

322 
WWUS53 KFGF 170129
SVSFGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
829 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

NDC005-170200-
/O.CON.KFGF.TO.W.0017.000000T0000Z-260717T0200Z/
Benson ND-
829 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN BENSON COUNTY...

At 829 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Fillmore, or 18 miles southeast of Rugby, moving
southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Harlow, Fillmore, and Baker.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 4817 9985 4824 9974 4837 9964 4810 9943
      4807 9985
TIME...MOT...LOC 0129Z 324DEG 11KT 4815 9976 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN

$$

TG

438 
WWUS53 KFGF 170146
SVSFGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
846 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

NDC005-170200-
/O.CON.KFGF.TO.W.0017.000000T0000Z-260717T0200Z/
Benson ND-
846 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR WEST
CENTRAL BENSON COUNTY...

At 845 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Baker, or 22 miles southeast of Rugby, moving
southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Harlow and Baker.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 4811 9985 4817 9969 4825 9954 4810 9943
      4807 9985
TIME...MOT...LOC 0145Z 324DEG 12KT 4813 9963 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN

$$

TG

471 
WWUS53 KFGF 170158
SVSFGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
858 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

NDC005-170207-
/O.EXP.KFGF.TO.W.0017.000000T0000Z-260717T0200Z/
Benson ND-
858 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR WEST CENTRAL BENSON COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT
900 PM CDT...

The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire. A tornado warning 
is still in effect across southeast Benson county. 

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
northeastern North Dakota.

&&

LAT...LON 4811 9985 4817 9969 4825 9954 4810 9943
      4807 9985
TIME...MOT...LOC 0157Z 340DEG 21KT 4806 9959 

$$

TG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
627 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 1 of 5 risk for severe storms this evening and
  overnight across northeast North Dakota and northwest
  Minnesota.

- Heat impacts continue across portions of the area through
  today.

- Wildfire smoke continues to affect air quality.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

...Synopsis...

The upper level ridging has flattened/weakened a bit, but
additional upper waves are rounding the upper ridge. Ensemble
guidance agrees that through the weekend and into early next
week the upper ridge axis will be west of the region and then
flatten early next week as a stronger system propagates through
Canada, bringing cooler temperatures to the northern plains.
There does not appear to be any stronger synoptic signals for
rainfall/storms given the anticipated pattern, although
mesoscale forcing could provide scattered storms here or there.

...Severe Risk This Evening...

Interesting set up is developing for severe potential this
evening, with what appears to be a triple point across
northcentral North Dakota. MLCAPE near 3000 J/KG and effective
bulk shear 30-35 knots will lead to organized storms. Storm
mode expected to be discrete given lack of strong synoptic
forcing and limited threat area. CAM guidance indicates
convective initiation 5-7p. Initial development will likely be
supercellular along with all associated supercell hazards
(hail, wind gusts, tornado). Regarding tornado potential, the
triple point plus any storm that anchors to the warm front
should experience increased SRH favorable for tornado
development. Uncertainty increases with how the event will
evolve after initial development, although in these situations
storm tipsily attempt to work into the stronger instability
meaning the threat area for the surfaced based severe potential
will remain across northeast North Dakota - and be mainly
diurnally driven with weakening toward 11p or so. The 1 of 5
risk from SPC is based on anticipated coverage.

Later into the night, an area of strong synoptic forming/warm
air advection will bring an elevated severe hail threat to
northwest Minnesota (likely after midnight).

...Heat Impacts...

Frontal boundary has set up from west to east across the region,
with temperatures low-mid 70s to the north of the boundary and
low 90s to the south of the boundary. With dew points around 70F
south of the boundary, heat impacts will continue into the
evening. After today, temperatures will be a bit cooler
(although limited heat impacts will remain for sensitive
groups).

...Air Quality...

As winds become southerly and then westerly overnight, smoke
should move out of the area. That said, forecasting where
wildfire smoke will go is pretty difficult, and as the flow
turns from the north tomorrow, smoke could return, although not
sure how impactful it would be if it does.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 625 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

The main aviation impact this evening will be a complex of
showers and thunderstorms developing around or near MOT and
progressing east-southeastward. The greatest chances for
terminal impacts will be at DVL, with potential continued
impacts to GFK/TVF/BJI depending on how far east they get before
diminishing.

Thereafter, winds will shift to northwesterly with the potential
for MVFR ceilings to arise at DVL. This should improve after
sunrise as mixing increases, giving way to VFR conditions and
persistent northwesterly winds through the end of the TAF
period.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for NDZ024-026>030-
     038-039-049-052-053.
MN...Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for MNZ001>003-029.

&&

DISCUSSION...TG
AVIATION...Perroux

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1255 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

MNZ022>024-027-028-030>032-040-171800-
Mahnomen-South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-
1255 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of west central
and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Wildfire smoke will lead to poor air quality.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation not needed today.

MNZ002-003-029-NDZ028>030-038-039-049-052-053-171800-
Norman-Clay-Wilkin-Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-
Sargent-Richland-
1255 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Heat will continue to bring impacts today, with heat indices up
to 100 degrees. In addition, wildfire smoke may lead to poor air
quality.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required today.

MNZ001-004>009-013>017-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026-027-054-171800-
West Polk-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-West Marshall-
East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-East Polk-
North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Towner-Cavalier-Pembina-Benson-
Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks-Western Walsh-
1255 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms late
afternoon into the evening. The main hazards will be hail up to
the size of golf balls, wind gusts up to 60 mph, and a tornado or
two.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required today.