Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
228 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Numerous to widespread thunderstorms will develop today and
  tomorrow, continuing late into the night. Some storms this
  afternoon may become strong to severe and capable of producing
  gusty to damaging wind gusts up to 50-60 mph, locally heavy
  rainfall, and frequent lightning.

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for portions of east central
  Georgia from noon to 8PM this afternoon, where heat index values
  up to 106 are possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 225 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

The synoptic pattern remains relatively unchanged with a stout near
600dam H500 ridge pivoting from the central Rockies into the
Northern Plains. Farther downstream, east of the Mississippi River,
a weak upper trough and associated upper low continues to slowly
drop from the Ohio Valley across the Southern Appalachians today
through tomorrow. At the same time, surface high pressure settling
over New England will drop a weak backdoor front south across the
Carolinas and towards Georgia, especially through the day on Monday.
These features interacting with an anomalously moist airmass (PWATs
in the 90th percentile for mid July) will foster the development of
numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms both this afternoon
and then again on Monday. Early afternoon visible satellite imagery
depicts a rather robust cumulus field just south of the Atlanta
metro with deeper updrafts supporting ice aloft and lightning
production as of this writing. This activity resides within a
moderately unstable airmass characteristic of 2500-4000 J/kg of
surface-based CAPE, steep low-level lapse rates and a pocket of 700-
1000 J/kg of DCAPE. ACARS soundings from ATL also depict inverted-v
profiles within the sub-clooud layer extending to at least 900mb
with potential deepening to as high as 850mb. As such, any more
robust cores will be capable of producing locally damaging
microbursts, especially with any convective clusters that can grow
upscale along composite cold pools. Farther north, more extensive
cloud cover has inhibited more robust instability with more shallow
cumulus noted west of just north of Atlanta. With additional time
and arriving forcing, convection should gradually expand in coverage
to the north as well.

The presence of synoptic forcing will allow convection to linger and
perhaps redevelop beyond the traditional summer pulse climo window.
The 12z suite of CAM guidance depicts lingering clusters of
convection overnight, especially across the north Georgia mountains
where at least some component of the flow will be aligned favorable
for orographic enhancement. The aforementioned PWATs will also
support healthy rainfall rates and any convective training or slow
moving cores will be capable of isolated flash flooding, especially
within urban settings or mountain locations with topographical
anchoring.

By Monday, the weak closed upper low settles more directly over the
area and will likely allow for another round of numerous to
widespread showers and thunderstorms. Copious amounts of cloud cover
will result in temperatures a good bit below climo with highs in the
low to mid 80s, which will have implications on available
instability. Despite sufficient coverage of storms, weaker CAPE with
poorer lapse rates and notably less DCAPE will generally limit
severe potential. Although with any summer storms, an isolated wet
microburst or two cannot be completely ruled out. Isolated flash
flooding will also have to be watched as slow moving storm clusters
and boundary interactions could yield pockets of locally higher
rainfall.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday morning through next Saturday)
Issued at 225 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Tuesday picks up with more rain expected across the CWA. The cut off
low delivering our current rounds of precip will begin to slowly
meander to the west underneath a breaking upper level ridge over the
northern portions of the CONUS. For Wednesday, this means PoPs will
return to a more of a typical summer pattern with late afternoon and
evening storms driven by daytime heating. Large upper level low is
progged to move over the NE going into Wednesday and Thursday. Our
pattern stalls a bit large ridge building over the central to
western portions of the CONUS, with troughing over the NE. By end of
week this may bring low pressure trough down the Appalachians that
could help to suppress some of the afternoon convection.

Temperatures are still forecast to slowly rise through the week.
With rain and cloud cover sticking around, temperatures will be 5-10
degrees below average Tuesday with highs in the 80s (and some areas
in the mountains only getting into the 70s!). Expect highs to rise
to the upper 80s to low 90s by Wednesday, becoming "seasonable" in
the low to mid 90s across the area through the rest of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 208 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

TSRA has develop across the area this aftn with associated impacts
possible at any terminal in the form of reduced vsby, lower cigs and
gusty winds. A few showers may linger/redevelop overnight. Low
stratus will form during the early evening with IFR cigs common and
at least some degree of patchy fog with reduced vsby. Cigs will lift
to MVFR by late morning followed by another round of afternoon TSRA
on Monday. Winds will be light and generally out of the west or
southwest.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence on the northern extent of TSRA towards the
airfield this aftn. High confidence for morning IFR stratus and
afternoon TSRA Monday.

Winesett

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          69  82  68  81 /  70  80  80  90
Atlanta         72  84  70  82 /  70  70  80  90
Blairsville     65  77  63  78 /  80  90  50  70
Cartersville    70  83  69  83 /  70  80  70  80
Columbus        73  86  71  86 /  60  70  50  90
Gainesville     70  80  68  79 /  90  80  80  80
Macon           72  86  69  85 /  60  80  60  90
Rome            70  83  68  82 /  70  90  70  80
Peachtree City  70  84  69  82 /  60  70  70  90
Vidalia         73  89  71  88 /  60  80  60  70

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ074-084>086-097-
098-111>113.

&&

SHORT TERM...Winesett
LONG TERM....Lusk
AVIATION...Winesett

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
352 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-132000-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
352 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north and central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for portions of eastern
and central Georgia until 9 PM tonight. Damaging wind gusts up to
60 mph will be possible with any storms which do form.

Numerous to widespread thunderstorms are expected this afternoon
and evening. Some storms may become strong to severe and capable
of producing gusty to damaging winds, frequent lightning, large
hail, and localized flash flooding concerns.

A Heat Advisory is in effect for portions of east central Georgia
from noon to 8PM. Heat index values up to 108 are expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

Numerous to widespread thunderstorms are likely on Monday and
Tuesday. Some storms may become strong to severe and capable of
producing gusty to damaging winds, frequent lightning, and
locally heavy rainfall.

Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are likely each day through
Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
304 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

GAZ067>069-079-121945-
Upson GA-Meriwether GA-Talbot GA-Pike GA-
304 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Meriwether, southeastern Pike, northern Upson and north central
Talbot Counties through 345 PM EDT...

At 304 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was near Crest, or 10 miles west
of Thomaston, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Thomaston, Sunset Village, Lincoln Park, Sprewell Bluff State Park,
Crest, Sunnyside, Atwater, Redbone Crossroads, and Hannahs Mill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3297 8458 3303 8428 3300 8427 3299 8427
      3299 8426 3290 8421 3279 8430 3285 8456
TIME...MOT...LOC 1904Z 271DEG 15KT 3292 8450

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
314 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

GAZ038-039-122000-
Wilkes GA-Oglethorpe GA-
314 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Wilkes and east
central Oglethorpe Counties through 400 PM EDT...

At 314 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was near Rayle, or 8 miles east
of Lexington, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Washington, Tignall, Rayle, Jacksons Crossroads, Mallorysville,
Newtown, Delhi, Norman, Danburg, Celeste, and Floral Hill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
northeastern and east central Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3367 8266 3379 8303 3393 8305 3398 8265
      3381 8258
TIME...MOT...LOC 1914Z 278DEG 20KT 3386 8297

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
322 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

GAZ046>049-059-122000-
Morgan GA-Walton GA-Rockdale GA-Jasper GA-Newton GA-
322 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central
Rockdale, southwestern Morgan, southeastern Walton, north central
Jasper and Newton Counties through 400 PM EDT...

At 322 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Covington, moving east
at 15 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Conyers, Covington, Social Circle, Oxford, Porterdale, Rutledge,
Newborn, Mansfield, Jersey, Georgia International Horse Park,
Ebenezer, Almon, Starrsville, Hard Labor Creek State Park, Brick
Store, Farrar, and Herndonville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
central and north central Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3356 8398 3370 8396 3374 8359 3356 8355
      3345 8363
TIME...MOT...LOC 1922Z 280DEG 11KT 3360 8383

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
336 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

GAZ045-046-122015-
Rockdale GA-DeKalb GA-
336 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Rockdale and
southeastern DeKalb Counties through 415 PM EDT...

At 336 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Arabia Mountain, or 7
miles west of Conyers, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Conyers, Milstead, Arabia Mountain, and Panola Mountain State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3368 8418 3370 8396 3360 8397 3357 8401
      3363 8418
TIME...MOT...LOC 1936Z 280DEG 11KT 3365 8412

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
350 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

GAZ047-049-122030-
Morgan GA-Walton GA-
350 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Morgan
and Walton Counties through 430 PM EDT...

At 350 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Walnut Grove, or 8
miles west of Monroe, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Monroe, Loganville, Social Circle, Walnut Grove, Rutledge, Bostwick,
Between, Good Hope, Jersey, Ebenezer, Youth, Hard Labor Creek State
Park, Pannell, and Herndonville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
north central and northeastern Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3372 8350 3361 8357 3372 8388 3375 8393
      3383 8391 3386 8358
TIME...MOT...LOC 1950Z 277DEG 26KT 3376 8385

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

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