Severe Thunderstorm Warning 26, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
136 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

...New 06Z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 124 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

 - A strong cold front will bring the threat for widespread severe
   weather to all of North and Central Georgia after midnight
   tonight through at least mid-day Monday.

 - Damaging winds (60+ mph) and tornadoes are the primary threats.

 - Widespread sub-freezing temperatures are expected both Monday
   night and Tuesday night following the cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 402 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

A very active short-term forecast period is in store as a dynamic
weather system brings the threat for severe thunderstorms followed
in short order by much colder temperatures. First things first,
let's start off with what's new:

1.) The latest Day 1 Convective Outlook from SPC now expands the
Enhanced Risk (Level 3 of 5) to connect with the larger enhanced to
the north. This now includes western and portions of northwest GA.
The threat for pre-frontal discrete thunderstorm development remains
though the risk and confidence for damaging winds in northwest GA
has increased (could see 70+ mph winds in some pockets).

2.) The Day 2 Convective Outlook has also seen an expansion of
the Enhanced Risk to now include east-central GA for the potential
of afternoon convection tomorrow.

This afternoon and evening:

Showers with a few rumbles of thunder have continued across
northeast GA and will continue to slowly lift with the warm front.
Temperatures through this area have trended lower than expected due
to the greater cloud coverage, however this will not likely impact
instability tomorrow with the WAA.

Tonight into Monday morning:

Our focus shifts to the approaching QLCS that will be rapidly racing
eastward across the southeast. This line is expected to bring in an
environment characterized by significant kinematics supportive of
damaging winds and a few tornados. CAPE values in north Georgia
will likely be a small limiting factor (generally less than 800
J/Kg) which will likely mean a relatively reduced tornado threat
(compared to other areas in this system). Brief spin-up tornados
are not completely out of the question north of I85, just not the
main hazard. For areas generally along and south of I85,
conditions become more favorable for severe wx. CAPE values
upwards of 1500 J/Kg and 0-1km SRH of over 200 m2/s2 will be more
than enough to support cellular formation within the line (as well
as ahead of it). Models diverge on a couple of important factors
through. The main thing to watch for will be baroclinicity across
central GA and AL which may support secondary low development and
slow the front south of I85 as it moves across the state. This
would give more time for destabilization across central GA as
well as allow for the upper level kinematics to move more directly
overhead to round out hodographs. This results in a more discrete
cell formation and thus a higher tor threat. Conditions are
likely to be a general mix of the two with potentially a classic
"string of pearls"-esque set up. Either way, this will require a
wait and see approach.

Monday Afternoon/night:

The cold front quickly sweeps across the area ushering in
significant cold air by Monday evening. Temperature may drop fast
enough that secondary frontal development on the backside of the
system may develop pockets of light snow shower. No significant
accumulations are expected at this time and any snow showers will be
brief (as they zip along with the strong upper level flow).

Winds will also continue into the overnight hours with gusts of 30+
mph across much of the area. These should calm slowly overnight
Monday, however wind chills may drop to near 20 for many areas. A
Wind advisory may be necessary behind the front should gusty winds
continue to trend upwards. A Freeze Warning is in effect for the
entire area for below freezing temperatures Monday night into
Tuesday morning. Freezing temps will return Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning as well, which will likely require another Freeze
product.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday morning through next Saturday)
Issued at 402 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

The extended period from Tuesday through Saturday of this week
will remain rather tranquil weather-wise with temperatures
starting much cooler and trending warmer by the weekend. For more
details please see the previous discussion below...

Very Cold and Dry Through Mid-Week:

Following the strong cold front on Monday, a much cooler than
normal airmass will settle over the Southeast through the middle
of the week. Low temps on Tuesday morning will likely be in the
mid 20s in north GA, and upper 20s in central GA, with breezy
northwest winds making the 'feels-like' temps about 10 degrees
cooler than that. High temps will struggle to get out of the 40s,
which will feel very cold after the last few weeks. With
weakening winds and mostly clear skies, temps Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning will likely fall to the mid to upper 20s again
across much of the area. Freeze Warnings will likely be needed on
Tuesday and Wednesday mornings, as spring vegetation and crops
would be at a significant risk for damage from the hard freeze.

Warming Trend And Dry Mid to Late Week:

From late Wednesday through the end of the week, a very strong
ridge over the Southwest US will start to slowly slide east and
spread into our area, kicking out the cold airmass. High
temperatures will return to the 70s from Thursday through
Saturday, with morning lows climbing back up to the 40s by
Friday, and 50s by Saturday. Between the dry northwest mid-level
flow and subsidence from the ridge, rain chances will remain
below 10% through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 124 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

MVFR cigs are spreading northward into TAF sites in advance of an
incoming line of thunderstorms and will prevail through the
remainder of the morning. Line of storms is expected to impact ATL
area and CSG TAF sites 09-12Z with gusty W to NW winds likely
along leading edge. -SHRA will linger through 18Z with a low-end
chance for a few flurries or very light -SN/PL at ATL area sites
18-20Z before ending. Cigs should then improve to VFR by 21-22Z.
SW winds initially at 10-15 kts with gusts 20-25 kts will switch
to NW in the wake of the cold front after 12-14Z with speeds 15-20
kts and gusts 25-30 kts into the afternoon.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Low confidence in brief afternoon -SN/PL potential.
Medium confidence on cigs/precip timing.
High confidence on winds.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          28  48  27  53 /   0   0   0   0
Atlanta         29  47  30  55 /   0   0   0   0
Blairsville     19  40  19  50 /  10   0   0   0
Cartersville    26  46  26  56 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus        30  52  30  58 /   0   0   0   0
Gainesville     27  46  28  52 /   0   0   0   0
Macon           30  52  29  56 /   0   0   0   0
Rome            28  50  29  59 /   0   0   0   0
Peachtree City  27  49  27  56 /   0   0   0   0
Vidalia         33  53  31  58 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for
GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113.

&&

SHORT TERM...SM
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...RW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
937 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-170145-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
937 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north and central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

A line of thunderstorms will enter far northwest Georgia after
midnight, continuing to advance south and east through the pre-dawn
hours. Several storms within this line will be strong to severe.
Damaging wind gusts will be the main hazard with severe
thunderstorms that occur, and there will also be the potential for
a few tornadoes and frequent lightning.

A Tornado Watch is in effect for portions of far northwest Georgia
until 4 AM EDT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

A strong cold front will continue to advance through the area
during the morning and early afternoon on Monday, pushing through
a line of strong to severe thunderstorms. The primary hazard will
be damaging winds as well as the potential for a few tornadoes.

Light flurries and snow showers will be possible across far north
Georgia on Monday afternoon, though accumulations and travel
impacts are expected to be minimal.

Widespread freezing temperatures are expected Monday night and
Tuesday night. Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops and
other sensitive vegetation.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.  Please relay any information about observed severe
weather to the NWS.