Severe Thunderstorm Warning 32, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
201 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated strong to severe storms with heavy rainfall possible
  across the southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande late this
  afternoon/evening.

- Another chance for isolated severe storms tomorrow

- Warm and humid conditions to continue throughout the week as our
  active weather pattern continues.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Current visible satellite imagery shows quite an extensive cloud
deck over the area that's just now finally starting to erode from
south to north. We even had some areas of drizzle form which isnt
surprising as the atmosphere remains extremely moist across the
area. Most should remain dry through late this afternoon as we
continue to mix up the atmosphere remaining capped. Our attention
then turns to the west where an approaching dryline and attendant
mid-level shortwave approach the area helping to ignite convection
along and ahead of this boundary. Most Hi-Res model guidance is
in fairly good agreement that initiation of convection should
commence over northern Mexico and push across the border into Val
Verde county by later this afternoon.

SPC currently has a level 2 of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms
across Val Verde, Kinney, parts of Maverick and most of Edwards
counties. The main risk being for large to very large (potentially
3+ inches) hail and sporadic damaging gusts. Additionally, an
isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. A level 1 of 5 risk is
places along and west of the I-35 Corridor. Agree with this as
the most recent sounding at DRT shows the presence of steep mid-
level lapse rates atop very moist low- level moisture just along
and east of the dryline. Likewise models continue to hint at
MUCAPE values of 1500 to 2500 J/kg along with 50-65kt of effective
bulk wind shear and steep mid level lapse rates of 7-7.5 C/km
building by this afternoon. All these factors continue to support
and increase ones confidence that should convection form along
this boundary we could see some very large hail late this
afternoon and into this evening.

Convection should then begin to spread east northeastward into
parts of the Southern Edwards Plateau before weakening and perhaps
reaching the western Hill Country by late this evening. Most
activity is expected to wane significantly after midnight as we
lose mixing potential and storms begin to encounter more stable
air to the east. Additionally, any convection that forms will have
rich moisture to work with and will be capable of producing
torrential rainfall with a quick 1-3 inches an hour not out of
the question. As a result, WPC has an area along and west of a
Llano to Kerrville to Carrizo Springs in a level 1 of 4 risk for
excessive rainfall.

Depending on tonights convective evolution and how far east these
storms make it will greatly impact our next shot for active
weather tomorrow. Less storms tonight generally means more active
weather for tomorrow with the opposite being true if we end up
seeing storms progress further east as the atmosphere will need
time to recover and reload. As such, SPC continues to keep us in
a level 1 of 5 risk for the same areas as today with main risks
being damaging wind gusts and large hail. Most Hi-Res models
continue to struggle on the exact placement convection will occur
and this is likely due to the uncertainty surrounding the
evolution of the convection tonight. Regardless, with the upper
level trough nearing our area Wednesday the more likely scenario
would be convection forming over the Edwards Plateau and Hill
Country and pushing off to the northeast.

Most activity should be well off to the north and east by
overnight Wednesday as upper-level ridging starts to build in
allowing many to finally dry out and warm up. Regarding high
temperatures Wednesday, most should expect to find themselves in
the mid 80s with areas that see more sun possibly nearing 90
degrees. Lows tonight and tomorrow night will remain abnormally
warm with many not dropping below 70 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

As alluded to briefly in the short term, upper-level ridging
builds across the area by early Thursday and continues into Friday
before a deep trough is forecast to bring an attendant cold front
through most of North Central and South Central TX. As this
happens expect convection to blossom out and ahead of this front
as southerly low-level flow along with southwesterly flow aloft
should help funnel in rich moisture from the Gulf. Expect
convection to take advantage of this setup with WPC once again
highlighting a level 1 of 4 risk in an area along and north of a
Fredericksburg to Buda to La Grange line.

Once this front passes we should see much colder air spill in
behind it with highs Thursday and Friday near 90 dropping into the
70s by Sunday. Additionally, expect some off and on showers
Sunday into Monday as mid-level southwesterly flow remains. By
Monday we should see the peak of this CAA with areas perhaps not
making it out of the 60s especially across the Hill Country with a
gradual warmup expected as southerly low-level flow finally
returns by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

MVFR ceilings may linger for another hour over KSAT/KAUS and into
the mid-afternoon for KDRT, though VFR conditions will be short-
lived with redevelopment of MVFR to IFR ceilings again tonight into
Wednesday morning. South to southeast wind may gust from 20-25 knots
across the area through the evening. Models have been consistent in
initiating storms near KDRT near 00Z today and have opted to include
a TEMPO group for this possibility. Storm development may hinder the
timing of low ceilings in the west tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              69  85  69  89 /  10  30  20   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  68  85  68  89 /   0  20  20   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     68  85  67  89 /   0  20  10   0
Burnet Muni Airport            67  81  66  85 /  20  50  30   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           69  86  69  89 /  60  20  10   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        68  82  67  88 /  10  30  30   0
Hondo Muni Airport             67  84  65  88 /  20  30  10   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        68  85  68  89 /   0  20  20   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   69  86  70  89 /   0  10  10   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       70  85  68  89 /  10  20  10   0
Stinson Muni Airport           70  86  70  90 /   0  20  10   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...CJM
LONG TERM....CJM
AVIATION...27