Severe Thunderstorm Warning 23, NWS El Paso, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1150 AM MDT Wed Jun 3 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1122 AM MDT Wed Jun 3 2026

- Thunderstorm chances expected each afternoon through Friday.
Chances for isolated storms Saturday in the Sacramento Mountains,
but dry elsewhere.

- Gusty outflow winds, flooding, and even some hail possible this
afternoon with storms. Continued risks for flooding from storms
possible again Thursday and Friday.

- Drier and warmer on Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1122 AM MDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Another active weather day expected this afternoon with
thunderstorms that could produce flash flooding, hail, and gusty
outflow winds expected today. This morning moisture has spread west
across the CWA and into AZ. This will help bring good storm chances
across the area this afternoon. Models have continued to suggest a
storm cluster at the northern portion of the CWA and another cluster
at the southwest portion of the CWA will converge later tonight and
this evening before fizzling out during the overnight hours.
Moisture will still be spread across the area but does look like
surface dewpoints mix out more tomorrow. Main locations for storms
tomorrow afternoon looks to be focused over the area mountains and
western locations of the area much of the lowlands having more
isolated chances.

Moisture will be on the decrease heading into Friday and even
Saturday. Best moisture looks to be east of the Rio Grande which
is where the focus for storms that afternoon will be, including
the area mountains. Lesser instability and moisture on Friday will
help work against the intensity of the storms. Drier air
continues to get pushed in from the southwest leaving only enough
moisture in far eastern locations and the Sacramento Mtns for
storm chances. Elsewhere will be dry. Winds throughout this time
and into early next week will be generally light with afternoon
breezes, but no breezy or windy days expected. Models were
suggesting high pressure that builds over the area early next week
but most recent models are suggesting the high builds over
central TX or over the Great Plains which will help keep our area
"cooler". Taking a look at the extended forecast, GFS suggests a
monsoonal type pattern heading into next week with rain chances
but the EC still tries building high pressure over the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1122 AM MDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Another round of thunderstorms today. All terminals have a good
chance to see storms this afternoon. Main impacts we're expecting
are flash flooding and patchy blowing dust, (which could cause
lowered visibilities), gusty outflow winds and even hail. Storms
are expected to be out of the area by around 10Z overnight. Expect
light winds outside of thunderstorms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1122 AM MDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Another round of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Storm
chances continue each day through Friday but moisture and chances
will slowly dwindle. By Saturday, the Sacramento Mtns has the
best chance for storms but dry elsewhere. Sunday continues to look
mostly dry but thereafter, models and guidance diverge. Thursday
and Friday we can expect more flooding possible from storms. Min
RHs tomorrow will stay above critical thresholds with values of
20-40% in the lowlands and 50-55% in the area mountains. Drier air
pushes in from the west which will drop RHs to critical along and
west of the Continental Divide Friday, but better moisture to the
east. By Saturday, critical min RHs expanded eastward and looks
to make it to the Rio Grande Valley with continued better moisture
to the east. By Sunday, mostly dry conditions will allow the
entire lowland area to dip into critical thresholds of 10-15%,
with near critical RHs in the area mountains with values of
19-22%.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  66  89  67  86 /  60  20  20  10
Sierra Blanca            58  82  59  79 /  60  30  40  50
Las Cruces               59  86  59  86 /  70  10  10   0
Alamogordo               61  85  63  84 /  50  20  10  50
Cloudcroft               45  64  46  65 /  60  60  10  50
Truth or Consequences    61  86  63  89 /  40  10  10  10
Silver City              54  82  55  85 /  50  40  10  30
Deming                   59  91  60  93 /  50  10  20  10
Lordsburg                60  89  60  92 /  50  20  20  10
West El Paso Metro       65  87  66  85 /  60  20  20   0
Dell City                59  86  60  84 /  40  20  20  40
Fort Hancock             64  90  64  87 /  70  20  30  40
Loma Linda               59  81  60  78 /  50  20  20  30
Fabens                   63  90  63  87 /  70  20  30  20
Santa Teresa             61  86  61  85 /  70  20  20   0
White Sands HQ           68  86  69  86 /  60  10  10  10
Jornada Range            60  86  61  86 /  70  10  10  10
Hatch                    61  89  61  91 /  80  10  10  10
Columbus                 63  90  65  92 /  40  10  10  10
Orogrande                60  83  61  82 /  60  20  10  30
Mayhill                  51  75  51  77 /  60  70  10  50
Mescalero                49  75  50  76 /  40  60  10  50
Timberon                 47  71  48  70 /  60  40  10  50
Winston                  50  80  52  83 /  30  30  20  20
Hillsboro                59  84  60  87 /  60  30  10  20
Spaceport                57  85  59  87 /  60  10  10  10
Lake Roberts             51  83  52  87 /  40  70  10  30
Hurley                   55  84  55  87 /  60  30  10  20
Cliff                    55  89  55  92 /  40  50  10  10
Mule Creek               53  86  54  89 /  30  50  10  10
Faywood                  57  83  57  85 /  70  40  10  20
Animas                   59  90  60  93 /  40  20  20  10
Hachita                  58  88  60  91 /  40  20  20  10
Antelope Wells           59  90  61  91 /  20  20  20  10
Cloverdale               56  85  58  86 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

FORECASTER...37-Slusher

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