Flash Flood Warning 5, NWS El Paso, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1250 PM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026

...New DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1241 PM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026

- Thunderstorm chances expected each afternoon through Friday with
abundant moisture in place.

- Gusty outflow winds, flooding, and even some hail possible this
afternoon with storms. Flooding from storms possible Wednesday and
Thursday.

- Rapid warmup Sunday and early next week where El Paso could see
  it's first triple digit of the year.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1241 PM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Weak main lobe of low pressure is spinning off the coast of SoCal,
but closer to home a shortwave associated with the low will help
bring an active thunderstorm day today. Above average moisture has
pushed into the area with PWs of 0.8"-1.0" generally along and east
of the Rio Grande Valley (RGV). This will be the main action zone
this afternoon with some storms possible in the Gila region. Main
concern today will be damaging/severe wind gusts of 58+ mph possible
near thunderstorms. CAMs are also suggesting a fairly large outflow
from storm activity out east that will spread westward earlier
tonight around 5-7PM. The outflow looks to cross the El Paso metro,
Las Cruces and even into the Deming area tonight. In addition,
DCAPEs are quite impressive with SPC Mesoanalysis page suggesting
1500-1700 J/kg over the next few hours confirming the threat for
damaging wind gusts possible. Abundant moisture and a south to north
trajectory of storms east of the RGV could spell flooding issues
as well. Some hail is also possible.

More areawide storm coverage tomorrow with just a bit better
moisture with PWs increasing to around 0.9"-1.0" tomorrow. Hi-res
models are illustrating the initial storm activity beginning early
in the afternoon with two waves of thunderstorms developing
(northern portion of the CWA, mostly the mountains) that will then
spread southward, and then another wave of storms that develops in
Mexico that drifts northward before eventually meeting the northern
cluster. Another round of thunderstorms expected Thursday afternoon
as a juicy atmosphere is still expected to be in place with PWs
still above average, at 0.9"-1.0". Still generally lacking good
shear for severe weather through Thursday but far southern Hudspeth
county could have enough ingredients for severe weather tomorrow. By
Friday, decent moisture looks to still be in the area but will be on
the decrease through the day and into the weekend with drier
conditions. Storm activity possible in the area mountains and far
eastern locations of the CWA on Saturday afternoon but chances
dwindle even more for Sunday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1144 AM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Thunderstorms will continue to pop up this afternoon. Much of the
activity will be over the area mountains and along and east of the
Rio Grande. Biggest threat will be gusty outflow winds with some
storms having the potential to have severe wind gusts (58+ mph).
Storms will have the potential to be efficient rain makers which
could create reductions in visibilities. KELP has the best chances
to see storms like this but recent hi-res models suggest storms
to stay further east of terminals. Models are also suggesting a
large outflow to track east to west around 5-7PM tonight that will
push through KELP, KLRU and even KDMN tonight. Storm activity
will push eastward and out of the area, with storm chances
diminishing

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1241 PM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Abundant moisture will shift westward tonight allowing for the best
coverage of thunderstorms tomorrow and perhaps into Thursday. Min
RHs both Wednesday and Thursday afternoon will be above critical
thresholds at 20-40% in the lowlands and 40-50% in the area
mountains. Flooding from storms will continue to be possible both
days. Heading into Friday, good moisture will still be overhead but
will be less than Wed/Thu. Critical min RHs along and west of the
Continental Divide expected Friday afternoon with the rest of the
area seeing RHs 20-30% in the lowlands and 45-50% in the mountains.

We will enter a drier period of weather this weekend with critical
min RHs returning. The Sacramento Mtns has a chance for
thunderstorms Saturday afternoon but elsewhere should be dry that
afternoon. Looking dry on Sunday with a rapid rebound in
temperatures. Critical min RHs west of the Rio Grande Saturday but
critical RHs spread across the lowlands Sunday with near critical
min RHs in the mountains of 20-25%.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  69  91  67  89 /  20  30  40  20
Sierra Blanca            60  84  58  83 /  60  40  50  40
Las Cruces               61  89  59  87 /  10  30  40  20
Alamogordo               61  87  61  86 /  40  30  30  30
Cloudcroft               46  65  45  65 /  60  60  30  70
Truth or Consequences    62  87  62  86 /  40  40  40  30
Silver City              56  83  54  82 /   0  60  30  60
Deming                   62  93  59  91 /   0  40  50  20
Lordsburg                63  90  60  90 /   0  30  40  20
West El Paso Metro       68  89  65  88 /  20  30  40  20
Dell City                60  85  59  86 /  60  30  40  30
Fort Hancock             66  92  64  91 /  40  40  40  30
Loma Linda               61  82  59  81 /  30  30  40  30
Fabens                   65  92  63  91 /  20  40  40  10
Santa Teresa             63  88  61  87 /  10  30  40  20
White Sands HQ           69  88  68  87 /  30  30  40  20
Jornada Range            62  88  60  86 /  20  50  60  20
Hatch                    62  91  61  90 /  20  40  50  20
Columbus                 67  92  63  91 /   0  20  30  20
Orogrande                61  85  60  84 /  40  20  40  20
Mayhill                  51  74  51  75 /  70  60  50  80
Mescalero                50  75  49  75 /  60  60  30  70
Timberon                 48  71  47  71 /  60  40  50  60
Winston                  52  79  51  79 /  20  70  40  50
Hillsboro                61  86  60  84 /  20  60  40  40
Spaceport                58  87  58  86 /  30  50  60  20
Lake Roberts             53  84  51  84 /  10  80  40  70
Hurley                   57  86  54  84 /   0  40  30  50
Cliff                    57  91  56  90 /   0  60  30  50
Mule Creek               55  87  54  86 /   0  50  20  50
Faywood                  59  85  57  83 /  10  40  40  40
Animas                   61  91  59  91 /   0  30  30  20
Hachita                  62  90  58  89 /   0  40  50  20
Antelope Wells           61  91  59  90 /   0  20  30  20
Cloverdale               58  87  56  86 /   0  20  20  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

FORECASTER...37-Slusher

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service El Paso TX
314 PM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026

NMZ414-427-428-022145-
West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet NM-
East Central Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo NM-
West Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands NM-
314 PM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL OTERO COUNTY THROUGH
345 PM MDT...

At 314 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms near Holloman Air Force Base, moving northeast at 15
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Alamogordo, White Sands National Park, Burro Flats, High Rolls, La
Luz, Holloman Air Force Base, and Mountain Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3273 10608 3278 10622 3310 10615 3298 10582
TIME...MOT...LOC 2114Z 208DEG 11KT 3282 10613

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

ZA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service El Paso TX
348 PM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026

TXZ422-022215-
Southern Hudspeth Highlands TX-
348 PM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL HUDSPETH COUNTY
THROUGH 415 PM MDT...

At 348 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles west of Allamoore, moving northwest at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Sierra Blanca.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3105 10507 3100 10522 3117 10539 3129 10507
TIME...MOT...LOC 2148Z 150DEG 8KT 3109 10518

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

ZA

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
352 PM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     Hail             Mayhill                 32.89N 105.48W
06/02/2026  M3.50 Inch       Otero              NM   Public

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service El Paso TX
402 PM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026

TXZ422-022230-
Southern Hudspeth Highlands TX-
402 PM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL HUDSPETH COUNTY
THROUGH 430 PM MDT...

At 402 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms near Allamoore, moving northwest at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Allamoore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3103 10526 3128 10513 3114 10491 3094 10491
TIME...MOT...LOC 2202Z 127DEG 13KT 3107 10496

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

ZA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service El Paso TX
650 PM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026

NMZ417-427-429-TXZ419-420-030115-
Southeast Tularosa Basin NM-Otero Mesa NM-
West Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands NM-
Eastern/Central El Paso County TX-
Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains TX-
650 PM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN OTERO AND NORTH
CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTIES THROUGH 715 PM MDT...

At 650 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms 7 miles southwest of McGregor Range Base, moving
northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Northeast El Paso, McGregor Range Base, and Fort Bliss Northeast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3184 10632 3191 10639 3220 10622 3203 10598
TIME...MOT...LOC 0050Z 220DEG 10KT 3198 10624

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

ZA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service El Paso TX
703 PM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026

NMZ427-429-TXZ419-030130-
Southeast Tularosa Basin NM-
West Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands NM-
Eastern/Central El Paso County TX-
703 PM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN OTERO...EASTERN
DONA ANA AND NORTH CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTIES THROUGH 730 PM MDT...

At 703 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Northeast El Paso, moving northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Northeast El Paso, Chaparral, Biggs Field, and Franklin Mountains
State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3184 10641 3189 10649 3208 10639 3200 10625
TIME...MOT...LOC 0103Z 220DEG 9KT 3192 10641

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

ZA