Special Weather Statement, NWS Kansas City, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
231 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heavy rainfall resulting in flash flooding is possible early
  this morning and Sunday afternoon. A Flood Watch is in effect.

- Severe storms (mainly strong winds) possible early this
  morning.

- Additional severe thunderstorm redevelopment is possible
  Sunday afternoon from Kansas City south and southeast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Widespread showers and storms have moved from southeastern NE
and eastern KS into northwestern MO this evening. How this
convection evolves through the morning is the primary concern of
this forecast cycle. A well-estabilished MCS in south central KS
has pivoted from a southeast motion to an eastward propagation
with the development of an MCV on the northern edge. As the LLJ
has ramped up over the last couple of hours, a distinct bowing
segment has formed. The current forecast track would have the
center of this bow moving either just south of the CWA or
through southern Linn (KS) and Bates Counties meaning that
severe weather, particularly severe winds, is possible across
eastern KS and far west-central MO, including the KC Metro.
However, given the timing of this system (well after midnight),
the expectation is for a weakening trend as it advances
eastward, so some uncertainty remains in the true severe weather
potential across the southern portion of the CWA. However,
given that there is the potential, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch
has been issued for the KC Metro and areas south through 6 AM
CDT.

A more concerning trend that has developed over the past few
hours is the potential for training storms along the I-70
corridor leading to flash flooding. Storms across northern KS
and northern MO have been slowly shifting south and have begun
to orient themselves in a west-to-east manner along the I-70
corridor in central KS resulting in prolonged periods of heavy
precipitation (rainfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour). This
looks poised to continue into eastern KS and western MO, which
could result in 2-4 inches of rain in just a couple of hours
across northern MO. Current 3-hr flash flood guidance is ~1.5-2
inches, so this is quite concerning. A Flood Watch remains in
effect through 7 PM CDT for all of western MO and eastern KS.

This complex of showers and storms is expected to continue
through the morning and exit the area to the east by early
afternoon. A remnant outflow boundary/modified warm front will
be draped across central MO. This boundary will be focus for
renewed convection this afternoon (development around 1-2 PM
CDT) before a cold front sweeps through the area with the best
chances coming along and south of I-70. Elevated PWATs (in
excess of 2") will allow for effective rainfall rates and
another chance for flash flooding. Afternoon MLCAPE values of
1000-2000 J/kg paired with deep layer shear on the order of
40-45 kts will also allow for a severe weather threat. The
primary threats are wind and hail, but given the presence of a
boundary in the area, certainly cannot rule out a tornado or
two. North of the boundary, there is a threat for elevated
storms, which creates the potential for hail and perhaps a
marginally severe wind gust. This thinking aligns with the SPC
as the southern portion of the area is in a Slight (Level 2 of
5) Risk and areas north of I-70 are outlined in a Marginal
(Level 1 of 5) Risk.

Moving past Sunday, a lull in active weather looks to be on the
way. High pressure builds into the area on Monday with upper-
level zonal flow. Temperatures will be cooler after the cold
frontal passage Sunday afternoon/evening with highs in the mid-
to-upper 70s. A gradual warming trend is expected through the
first half of the week with temperatures climbing into the low-
to-mid 80s. Precipitation chances remain minimal through the
majority of the week before the next chance (20-40%) moves in on
Friday with a mid-level shortwave, however, a good amount of
uncertainty remain that far out.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Showers and storms are expected to arrive at the terminals over
the first couple hours of the TAF period. KSTJ will likely have
storms ongoing at 06Z with storms spreading southward over the
next couple of hours. These storms will be accompanied by
lowered visibilities and MVFR CIGs. MVFR conditions should
persist through the morning with low-end probabilities for IFR
CIGs in the late morning. Showers and storms will come to an end
through the morning, however, MVFR CIGs should stick around
into the afternoon before scattering out. MVFR CIGs may return
late this evening, but confidence is not high enough to include
in the TAFs at this time. Winds will begin the period as
easterly before shifting to southerly and southwesterly through
the morning. Gusts of 20-25 kts are possible through the
morning. Winds will flip to northerly this afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flood Watch through this evening for MOZ001>008-011>017-
     020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
KS...Flood Watch through this evening for KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

&&

DISCUSSION...Carothers
AVIATION...Carothers

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
0504 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-211004-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
0504 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Please go to https://weather.gov/media/eax/DssPacket.pdf for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please go to https://weather.gov/media/eax/DssPacket.pdf for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lingering light rains and isolated rumbles of thunder this morning

- Severe storms possible late tonight through Sunday. Heavy rain
  with flood potential is forecast. A Flood Watch is in effect.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
257 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

KSZ102-MOZ012-013-020-021-210845-
Doniphan KS-Buchanan MO-Clinton MO-De Kalb MO-Andrew MO-
257 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN DONIPHAN...
BUCHANAN...NORTHWESTERN CLINTON...SOUTHEASTERN ANDREW AND
SOUTHWESTERN DEKALB COUNTIES THROUGH 345 AM CDT...

At 257 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Wathena, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
St. Joseph, Wathena, Elwood, Country Club Villa, Country Club,
Stewartsville, Agency, Union Star, Rushville, Clarksdale, Easton,
Cosby, St. Joseph Airport, and Helena.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 29 between mile markers 38 and 54.
 Interstate 229 between mile markers 0 and 11.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Pleasant Hill.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 600 AM CDT for
northeastern Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3999 9459 3972 9436 3957 9504 3972 9509
TIME...MOT...LOC 0757Z 247DEG 32KT 3971 9496

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Sharp

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
301 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

KSZ103>105-210845-
Johnson KS-Wyandotte KS-Leavenworth KS-
301 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN WYANDOTTE...
SOUTHWESTERN LEAVENWORTH AND NORTHWESTERN JOHNSON COUNTIES THROUGH
345 AM CDT...

At 300 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Eudora, or near De Soto, moving north at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Bonner Springs, De Soto, Tonganoxie, Basehor, Kansas City, Linwood,
Reno, Fairmount, Jarbalo, Piper, and Clearview City.

This includes Kansas Turnpike between mile markers 206 and 224.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 600 AM CDT for
northeastern and east central Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3928 9518 3918 9484 3889 9497 3889 9506
      3899 9507 3898 9509 3896 9508 3897 9511
      3897 9513 3898 9516 3896 9517 3897 9519
TIME...MOT...LOC 0800Z 198DEG 23KT 3896 9508

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Sharp

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
340 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

MOZ012-013-020-021-210930-
Buchanan MO-Clinton MO-De Kalb MO-Andrew MO-
340 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT EASTERN BUCHANAN...NORTHWESTERN
CLINTON...SOUTHEASTERN ANDREW AND DEKALB COUNTIES THROUGH 430 AM
CDT...

At 340 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 6 miles east of Country
Club Villa to near Agency. Movement was east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
St. Joseph, Maysville, Stewartsville, Agency, Osborn, Clarksdale,
Easton, Cosby, Amity, Fairport, and Helena.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Pleasant Hill.

&&

LAT...LON 4004 9434 3969 9429 3959 9475 3989 9479
TIME...MOT...LOC 0840Z 253DEG 24KT 3981 9471 3965 9470

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Sharp

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
356 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

KSZ103-104-210945-
Wyandotte KS-Leavenworth KS-
356 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN WYANDOTTE AND
LEAVENWORTH COUNTIES THROUGH 445 AM CDT...

At 355 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from near Winchester to near
McLouth to near Tonganoxie. Movement was east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Leavenworth, Lansing, Bonner Springs, Tonganoxie, Basehor,
Edwardsville, Kansas City, Reno, Fairmount, Jarbalo, and Piper.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 70 in Kansas between mile markers 410 and 412.
 Interstate 435 between mile markers 9 and 16.
 Kansas Turnpike between mile markers 210 and 226.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 600 AM CDT for
northeastern and east central Kansas...and west central Missouri.

&&

LAT...LON 3932 9518 3938 9495 3920 9483 3905 9478
      3905 9481 3906 9484 3906 9487 3904 9489
      3902 9519
TIME...MOT...LOC 0855Z 271DEG 20KT 3926 9523 3917 9516 3907 9514

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Sharp

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