Severe Thunderstorm Warning 407, NWS Kansas City, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
231 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heavy rainfall resulting in flash flooding is possible early
  this morning and Sunday afternoon. A Flood Watch is in effect.

- Severe storms (mainly strong winds) possible early this
  morning.

- Additional severe thunderstorm redevelopment is possible
  Sunday afternoon from Kansas City south and southeast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Widespread showers and storms have moved from southeastern NE
and eastern KS into northwestern MO this evening. How this
convection evolves through the morning is the primary concern of
this forecast cycle. A well-estabilished MCS in south central KS
has pivoted from a southeast motion to an eastward propagation
with the development of an MCV on the northern edge. As the LLJ
has ramped up over the last couple of hours, a distinct bowing
segment has formed. The current forecast track would have the
center of this bow moving either just south of the CWA or
through southern Linn (KS) and Bates Counties meaning that
severe weather, particularly severe winds, is possible across
eastern KS and far west-central MO, including the KC Metro.
However, given the timing of this system (well after midnight),
the expectation is for a weakening trend as it advances
eastward, so some uncertainty remains in the true severe weather
potential across the southern portion of the CWA. However,
given that there is the potential, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch
has been issued for the KC Metro and areas south through 6 AM
CDT.

A more concerning trend that has developed over the past few
hours is the potential for training storms along the I-70
corridor leading to flash flooding. Storms across northern KS
and northern MO have been slowly shifting south and have begun
to orient themselves in a west-to-east manner along the I-70
corridor in central KS resulting in prolonged periods of heavy
precipitation (rainfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour). This
looks poised to continue into eastern KS and western MO, which
could result in 2-4 inches of rain in just a couple of hours
across northern MO. Current 3-hr flash flood guidance is ~1.5-2
inches, so this is quite concerning. A Flood Watch remains in
effect through 7 PM CDT for all of western MO and eastern KS.

This complex of showers and storms is expected to continue
through the morning and exit the area to the east by early
afternoon. A remnant outflow boundary/modified warm front will
be draped across central MO. This boundary will be focus for
renewed convection this afternoon (development around 1-2 PM
CDT) before a cold front sweeps through the area with the best
chances coming along and south of I-70. Elevated PWATs (in
excess of 2") will allow for effective rainfall rates and
another chance for flash flooding. Afternoon MLCAPE values of
1000-2000 J/kg paired with deep layer shear on the order of
40-45 kts will also allow for a severe weather threat. The
primary threats are wind and hail, but given the presence of a
boundary in the area, certainly cannot rule out a tornado or
two. North of the boundary, there is a threat for elevated
storms, which creates the potential for hail and perhaps a
marginally severe wind gust. This thinking aligns with the SPC
as the southern portion of the area is in a Slight (Level 2 of
5) Risk and areas north of I-70 are outlined in a Marginal
(Level 1 of 5) Risk.

Moving past Sunday, a lull in active weather looks to be on the
way. High pressure builds into the area on Monday with upper-
level zonal flow. Temperatures will be cooler after the cold
frontal passage Sunday afternoon/evening with highs in the mid-
to-upper 70s. A gradual warming trend is expected through the
first half of the week with temperatures climbing into the low-
to-mid 80s. Precipitation chances remain minimal through the
majority of the week before the next chance (20-40%) moves in on
Friday with a mid-level shortwave, however, a good amount of
uncertainty remain that far out.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Showers and storms are expected to arrive at the terminals over
the first couple hours of the TAF period. KSTJ will likely have
storms ongoing at 06Z with storms spreading southward over the
next couple of hours. These storms will be accompanied by
lowered visibilities and MVFR CIGs. MVFR conditions should
persist through the morning with low-end probabilities for IFR
CIGs in the late morning. Showers and storms will come to an end
through the morning, however, MVFR CIGs should stick around
into the afternoon before scattering out. MVFR CIGs may return
late this evening, but confidence is not high enough to include
in the TAFs at this time. Winds will begin the period as
easterly before shifting to southerly and southwesterly through
the morning. Gusts of 20-25 kts are possible through the
morning. Winds will flip to northerly this afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flood Watch through this evening for MOZ001>008-011>017-
     020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
KS...Flood Watch through this evening for KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

&&

DISCUSSION...Carothers
AVIATION...Carothers

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
356 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

KSZ103-104-210945-
Wyandotte KS-Leavenworth KS-
356 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN WYANDOTTE AND
LEAVENWORTH COUNTIES THROUGH 445 AM CDT...

At 355 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from near Winchester to near
McLouth to near Tonganoxie. Movement was east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Leavenworth, Lansing, Bonner Springs, Tonganoxie, Basehor,
Edwardsville, Kansas City, Reno, Fairmount, Jarbalo, and Piper.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 70 in Kansas between mile markers 410 and 412.
 Interstate 435 between mile markers 9 and 16.
 Kansas Turnpike between mile markers 210 and 226.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 600 AM CDT for
northeastern and east central Kansas...and west central Missouri.

&&

LAT...LON 3932 9518 3938 9495 3920 9483 3905 9478
      3905 9481 3906 9484 3906 9487 3904 9489
      3902 9519
TIME...MOT...LOC 0855Z 271DEG 20KT 3926 9523 3917 9516 3907 9514

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Sharp

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