River Flood Warning 147, NWS Kansas City, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
653 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) for severe weather today as a
  cold front slides through the area. All severe hazards remain
  possible.

* Additional severe weather looks possible for Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 349 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Thunderstorms are beginning to develop across southern NE as the
main shortwave trough approaches from the High Plains. Ample
moisture advection northward on a 55 kt LLJ will foster
additional storm development for the next few hours across
southern and eastern NE. As time progresses, supercells will
congeal into an MCS while approaching Iowa and far northern MO.
Large hail is the primary threat now, but as the transition to
an MCS occurs, damaging winds will also become a concern. The
highest threat is expected to remain mostly across central and
southern IA, but the southern end of the line appears likely to
graze far northern MO. Some supercellular characteristics may
prevail in this section of the line with the large hail threat
continuing into the mid morning hours. Depending how far south
the line reaches will determine whether the ongoing flooding
across northern MO is exacerbated. The Flood Watch was cancelled
with the thought the hardest hit areas will be missed from this
morning's activity. The MCS will continue tracking east to
northern IL by early afternoon.

The low pressure center will be located over central/eastern IA
midday with a cold front extending southwest into far northwest
MO and eastern KS. Additional thunderstorm development will take
place along the front mid afternoon, likely stretching from west
central to northeast MO. Northwestern MO and northeast KS may
be skipped by the second round. The extensive squall line will
be capable of all severe weather hazards. Some slightly backed
low level flow toward northeast MO may aid with a better tornado
threat there, otherwise large hail and damaging winds will be
the primary hazards through late afternoon.

The front will clear to the southeast by early evening and the
thunderstorm risk will end. Much cooler and drier air arrives
with the frontal passage and lows tonight will drop into the
50s. Clear skies and pleasant conditions for Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 349 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

High pressure will slide east late Friday and return flow will
begin Friday night. Low pressure over the central Plains and
steepening mid level lapse rates will facilitate the
redevelopment of showers and thunderstorms as another cold front
sinks south. Supercells will be possible initially Saturday
before congealing into clusters or complexes and continuing into
Saturday night. All severe weather hazards are possible,
including flash flooding.

The cold front will pass through and exit to the south by
Sunday. Cooler and drier air will usher in with a large trough
across the northern and eastern U.S. Weak shortwaves could bring
occasional low chances for showers and thunderstorms, but
nothing looks too significant at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 646 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Gusty conditions expected for the duration of the period. Winds
gust around 25-30 knots this morning. A cold front moves
through the area around midday which shifts winds from SW to NW.
Gusts around 30 to intermittent 40 knots are expected. SHRA and
TSRA are expected to develop as the front moves through the KC
metro; however, better probabilities are expected east of the
terminals. Winds dissipate during the overnight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...Borghoff
LONG TERM...Borghoff
AVIATION...Pesel

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
0505 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-121005-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
0505 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Please go to https://weather.gov/media/eax/DssPacket.pdf for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please go to https://weather.gov/media/eax/DssPacket.pdf for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) for severe weather today as a
  cold front slides through the area. All severe hazards remain
  possible.

* Additional severe weather looks possible for Saturday.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant HIll MO
821 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Mercer                  40.51N 93.53W
06/11/2026  E65 MPH          Mercer             MO   Emergency Mngr

            Estimated 60 to 65 mph gusts in Mercer.

&&

BMW

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant HIll MO
838 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0825 AM     Hail             2 SW Bethany            40.25N 94.06W
06/11/2026  E1.50 Inch       Harrison           MO   Emergency Mngr

            Ping pong ball sized hail reported at the
            junction of US 136 and US 69.

&&

BMW

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant HIll MO
840 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0826 AM     Hail             Bethany                 40.26N 94.03W
06/11/2026  E1.00 Inch       Harrison           MO   Public

            Quarter sized hail reported in Bethany.

&&

BMW