Wind Advisory 7, NWS Quad Cities, IA

114 
WWUS73 KDVN 021527
NPWDVN

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1027 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

IAZ067-068-078-087>089-098-099-ILZ009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-
010-030000-
/O.EXT.KDVN.WI.Y.0007.260402T1900Z-260403T0000Z/
Muscatine-Scott-Louisa-Jefferson-Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-
Lee-Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-
Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
Including the cities of Fairfield, Wapello, Mount Pleasant,
Macomb, Muscatine, Hennepin, Memphis, Rock Island, Moline,
Keosauqua, Oquawka, Bettendorf, Aledo, Carthage, Kahoka,
Burlington, Davenport, Monmouth, Fort Madison, Sterling,
Princeton, and Geneseo
1027 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT 
THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph expected.

* WHERE...Portions of north central, northwest, and west central 
  Illinois, east central and southeast Iowa, and northeast Missouri.

* WHEN...From 2 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

Gross

058 
WWUS73 KDVN 022320
NPWDVN

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
620 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

IAZ067-068-078-087>089-098-099-ILZ009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-
010-030030-
/O.CAN.KDVN.WI.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-260403T0000Z/
Muscatine-Scott-Louisa-Jefferson-Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-
Lee-Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-
Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
Including the cities of Fort Madison, Muscatine, Mount Pleasant,
Geneseo, Macomb, Aledo, Wapello, Rock Island, Hennepin, Sterling,
Memphis, Fairfield, Carthage, Princeton, Bettendorf, Keosauqua,
Burlington, Oquawka, Davenport, Monmouth, Kahoka, and Moline
620 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The threat has ended.

$$

Gross

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1240 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

...Updated for 06z Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The stormy weather pattern continues through Friday night with several
  rounds of showers and storms to go through, leading to
  widespread soaking rains of 1-3+ inches.

- Back to back Enhanced Risk/Level 3 days Thursday and Friday with
  all hazards possible.

- Away from the storms, near advisory criteria winds Thursday
  afternoon with gusts to 40+ mph from the south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 249 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Tonight...Strong south-southwesterly LLJ of 40 to 50 KTs ahead of a
well pronounced(looking at the feature acrs the 4-corners region on
WV imagery) upper trof to surge acrs the area tonight. This elevated
THTA-E feed to produce another plume of showers and a few embedded
thunderstorms spreading northward acrs the area this evening and
overnight. Rainfall acrs the area by Thu morning may be close to the
PWAT feed of 1.2 to 1.5 inches, or at least some swaths of 1+
inches. This may produce some ponding water in the south where they
got some decent rainfall last night. A few of the more robust cells
late tonight may produce small hail, but not much more support
thermodynamically for larger hail and agree with the SPC removal of
the Marginal Risk in our south tonight. Sfc cyclogenesis will look
to blossom acrs western KS late tonight to the lee of the ejecting
upper wave, possibly to sub-1000 MB levels by 12z Thu. The
associated warm front may start to get edgy and want to retreat
toward our southern CWA by 12z Thu, otherwise ongoing pre-frontal
brisk east sfc winds to continue and the sfc temps may show a steady
to slow rise trend through the 40s overnight and into the morning.

Thursday...Using accepted a shorter range type of ensemble feature
placement and handling, a sfc low deepening to 997 or even lower
will encroach upon the DSM area by 17-18z Thu, pulling the warm
front up to at least I-80 or even Hwy 30 by the same time. Ongoing
SSW LLJ of 45-50 KTs will continue to stream acrs the area, and with
a temporary precip decrease or move off to the north with some
southerly mid level dry intrusion, there may be a few elevated
storms more capable of producing hail Thu morning than tonight. Then
the incoming upper trof taking a Negative tilt acrs and just east of
the mid MO RVR Valley, along with a NNE-to-SSW oriented mid and
upper jet-let on the eastern flank with some left exit effects,
start inducing deeper lift and sfc based convective ignition acrs
east IA by mid afternoon. The big thing is where the warm front lays
out and how far north it can retreat northward through the
afternoon. The bulk of the solutions have it north of the DVN CWA by
20-21z or so, but a few hang it up along the Hwy 20 corridor until
sfc wave passage acrs northeast IA after 22z.

The DVN CWA will look to be almost full blown warm sector by early
afternoon, with lingering morning showers/storms exiting out. Strong
LLVL pressure gradient fields will look to induce strong southerly
sfc/BL winds by midday, especially along and south of I-80. Mixing
tools on the strong LLVL wind fields shows gusts of 40 to 45 MPH and
like the previous shift mentioned, near wind advisory criteria in
the ambient flow away from storms. Some worry that even just a
shower may mix down 50 mph winds. With so much going on, will hold
off a wind advisory for now, but it may be an idea. Sfc temps
warming into the low to mid 70s and DPTs in the low to mid 60s
making available layer CAPEs of up to 1500 J/kg by mid afternoon.
This banking on the strong southerly flow blowing out all the
morning and midday convective debris especially in the expected new
convection spawning grounds of the western CWA by mid afternoon.

Bulk shear profiles close to being all effective layer as well and
range from 40-50 KTs acrs the warm sector, higher on the warm front
and along the cold front. Warm sector LCL's may be as low as 1500
FT AGL. Warm front SRH's of 200-300+ m2/s2. All this along with the
cyclonic tilted wave aloft with embedded vort max lead to a tornado
concern. A potentially strong/significant tornado on the warm front
from the Hwy 20 corridor to/acrs southern WI Thu afternoon and
evening. Warm sector storms also capable of weaker EF-0/1 tornadoes.
But the strong ambient low to mid level wind fields and kinematics
suggest damaging wind gusts of 60-70+ MPH may be the primary warm
sector storm threat. The storms will be fast moving and timing some
CAM speeds in handling echoes suggest motions of 60 to 65 MPH,
making for problematic warning sectors. Will probably have 1 to 3
arching bands of broken lines of of lower CAPE/High shear supercells
moving acrs the area tomorrow afternoon.

Most storms to exit off to the east by 9 pm and incoming dry slot to
take over by Thu late evening. More swaths of a half inch to at
least 1 inch of rainfall Thu adding to the Wed night totals.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 249 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Friday and Saturday...Friday a similar upper second low, but may be
larger and closed off will look to eject out acrs the upper Midwest
through Sat morning. Some similar aspects as to the Thursday system,
but a later time of day and bit further west mass field placement
may have the strongest storm initiation off to the west of the DVN
CWA Friday evening. Latest storm analytics suggest the area may be
more under the gun of a squall line moving in from the west than
supercell development overhead. But there may be that element
too(supercell type storms or semi-discrete) ahead of the squall
line. In any case, the bookend to Thursday Elevated Risk rides for
now for late Friday. The prime warm moist conveyor fueling a swath
of heavy rain may look to occur just to the south and southeast of
the DVN CWA Friday night into Saturday. Post-frontal cooler day
Saturday.

Sunday through Tuesday...Continued cooler and more seasonable this
stretch into early next week, with a return flow induced precip
event possible some time Tue into next Wed.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Predominantly lower MVFR to IFR conditions with some LIFR
through 15z in low clouds, fog and widespread rain/showers with
embedded thunder ahead of a lifting warm front. A strengthening
LLJ will foster LLWS around 12z through 16z. Thursday afternoon
into very early evening (19z-00z) there is the potential for a
couple of rounds of scattered storms ahead of a low pressure
system and cold front. A few of the storms may be severe with
mainly damaging winds and a brief tornado possible. Have handled
the storm potential with a PROB30 mention. Strong southerly
winds ahead of the storms will gust 30-40 kt, and any storms
will have the ability to mix down stronger winds to around
severe criteria (50 kt). Conditions Thursday afternoon should
trend to MVFR and VFR predominantly with some IFR (visibility)
possible in storms. Winds will veer W/SW and remain gusty
Thursday evening/night up to 30 kt and some wrap-around low
clouds and MVFR ceilings will be favored north of I-80 mainly.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...05

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
310 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-021200-
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson-
Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-
Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-
Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
310 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northwest Illinois...west central Illinois...east
central Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Iowa and northeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected
tonight into early Thursday morning. Small hail will be possible
with the stronger storms. Locally heavy rainfall and some ponding
water is likely, especially in areas that see repeated activity.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

Thunderstorms are likely both Thursday and Friday. Some of the
thunderstorms may become severe with large hail, damaging winds
and a few tornadoes. The Storm Prediction Center has placed
most of the Outlook Area in a Enhanced Risk, or level 3 of 5
Risk, for severe weather on Thursday. There is also an Enhanced
Risk for severe weather for Friday afternoon and evening. This
risk area covers northeast Missouri, and eastern Iowa along and
south of Highway 30, with a Slight Risk covering much of the rest
of the area. Storms will also bring periods of heavy rain and the
potential for localized flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed Thursday and Friday.

12