Severe Thunderstorm Warning 65, NWS Quad Cities, IA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
240 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is an Enhanced Risk/Level 3 of 5 for severe weather
  today, with damaging wind and tornadoes the primary risks. The
  risk for a few strong/significant tornadoes is increasing.

- Very fast storm motions between 50-60 mph will offer
  significantly less time to act this afternoon and evening,
  thus it's very important to stay weather aware!

- There is an Enhanced/Slight Risk (level 2+3 of 5) for severe
  weather Friday, with all modes of severe weather possible.

- Cooler and drying out this weekend, with frost/freeze
  potential early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 238 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

A very active afternoon/evening is expected with numerous severe
storms possible. Stay weather aware and be quick to react when a
warning is issued as storms will be moving VERY fast! This will
greatly reduce your time to take action so seek shelter
immediately!

Water vapor imagery early this afternoon shows well defined
negatively tilted shortwave lifting northeast over southwest IA
with a dry slot moving into our southwest CWA. 18z surface
observations and analysis have a 999mb surface low out ahead of
the main upper wave just south of DSM and a warm front
extending east of the low right along I-80 towards DVN. GOES Day
Cloud Phase RGB imagery has a nice area of clearing from a line
from IOW-EOK and points west. A Tornado Watch has been recently
issued until 8pm for the entire CWA.

Severe Risk

The question initially with storm development today was how
much clearing/destabilization was going to take place. The
aforementioned warm front was taking its time lifting north this
morning, but the low has now surged it towards the I-80
corridor with building 0-1km and SBCAPE expected this afternoon
out ahead of the storms. In addition, a very strong kinematic
and moist environment is in place as shown on our 18z sounding
(winds over 40kts for most of the column, sickle shaped
hodograph, and 1.39 PW). At the same time, a mid-level speed max
around 60kts is developing just ahead of the storms which is
one of the key composites to significant tornado environments in
the DVN CWA as well as surging northward dewpoint/CAPE
gradients. All this being said, numerous severe storms will be
possible with discrete supercells initially capable of quickly
becoming tornadic. Some concern for a few significant tornadoes
(EF2+) is there as well with such strong 0-1km SRH values over
300 m2/s2 and some low level backing of winds especially for any
supercell that cross the warm front.

This is still one failure mode that I do want to point out and
that is with so much shear aloft, updrafts could easily become
disrupted/ripped apart thereby limiting the overall severe risk.
Sometimes too much shear is a good thing for reducing the
severe threat.

Winds have underperformed so far today in the advisory area, but
some gusts near 45 mph is still possible this afternoon. Have
decided to continue the advisory for now but may be able to be
cancelled early this evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 238 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Another active day with severe weather is expected late Friday
afternoon through early Saturday, as a closed low moves over the
northern Plains. There are some similar aspects to today's system,
but with 12z models continuing to show a later time of day and bit
further west and north surface low track, this favors storm
initiation over western and central IA late Friday afternoon/early
evening. This activity would then likely evolve into a mature squall
line or QLCS and move east into the CWA during the evening,
exiting early Saturday. Timing of severe weather would be after
7 PM Saturday with this line. This setup looks to largely favor
damaging winds with some significant wind potential, and a few
tornadoes with any mesovortices. However, will still have to
keep tabs for some discrete cell potential in the warm sector
and in close proximity to the warm front. It will another day of
mesoscale forecasting and monitoring the evolution of the
front/destabilization of the boundary layer/EML capping. There
is some potential for more slowing of this system thereby
reducing the overall severe threat in the evening as instability
wanes. SPC has maintained an Enhanced/Slight Risk (level 2+3 of
5) for severe weather for areas west of a Clinton IA to
Galesburg IL line.

Saturday will see conditions begin to dry out and turn cooler as
high pressure begins to build in.

Sunday-Tuesday...Continued cooler and more seasonable this
stretch into early next week, with a return flow induced precip
event possible some time Tue into next Wed. There will also be a
concern for frost/freeze potential each morning through the
period due to recent greenup that will need to be evaluated in
later forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Poor flying conditions are expected through the period. A warm
front will continue to lift north through the terminals, with
lowest IFR cigs just to the north of the boundary near DBQ. A
surface low will track towards IIB around 22z, with scattered
showers and thunderstorms developing out ahead of the low in the
warm sector. A few of the storms may become severe with all
hazards possible. Confidence in hitting the terminals remains
too low to include prevailing groups at this time and have
handled this with PROB30 wording until confidence increases.
Cold front to push east of the terminals by 03z, with lower
IFR/LIFR cigs moving in behind the fropa afterwards. Model
guidance also was hinting at fog potential early Friday and have
trended the TAFs in that direction with the highest confidence
at DBQ/BRL.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for IAZ067-068-078-
     087>089-098-099.
IL...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ILZ009-015>018-
     024>026-034-035.
MO...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ009-010.

&&

SHORT TERM...Gross
LONG TERM...Gross/McClure
AVIATION...Gross

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
247 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-032000-
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson-
Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-
Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-
Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
247 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northwest Illinois...west central Illinois...east
central Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Iowa and northeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

An Enhanced risk, or level 3 of 5 risk for severe weather covers
much of the Outlook area. The risk of severe storms will be
between 2 and 8 pm this evening. Damaging winds and tornadoes are
the primary hazards.

Storms will be moving very fast, which will result in
significantly less time to act. For this reason, it is important
to plan now where you will shelter in the event severe weather
strikes, and make sure you stay weather aware.

A Wind Advisory is also in effect this afternoon for areas mainly
south of a line from Mount Carroll, Illinois to Washington, Iowa
where southerly winds will gust to around 45 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A Slight to Enhanced risk, or Level 2 and 3 out of 5 risk for
severe weather covers much of the Outlook area on Friday. The risk
for severe storms is primarily Friday evening into the early
overnight hours of Saturday morning. Large hail, damaging winds
and tornadoes are all possible. Storms will also bring periods of
heavy rain and the potential for localized flooding.

Below freezing temperatures will be possible early next week that
may cause damage to sensitive vegetation.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed this afternoon into early evening,
and again Friday evening.

GROSS

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